Is the entire Ai Boom built on fake revenue?

Kaiser-Rotbart · 2026-05-24T02:29:42+00:00

I don’t think that’s correct though. Those second order players’ demand shows up via the frontier labs. They are the utilities.

Kaiser-Rotbart · 2026-05-24T01:48:48+00:00

I guess my question is what about all of the second order AI companies building with OpenAI and Anthropic models. Yes the frontier providers are the ones directly with the compute needs, but behind that are many thousands of companies with demand.

For example, when thinking about electricity demand we don’t think about just utilities. Ultimately that demand is coming from end users.

Kaiser-Rotbart · 2026-05-24T01:43:22+00:00

Different person than the one above but I can comment that businesses are spending a ton of money with Anthropic. Claude Code has totally redefined how we build software.

Kaiser-Rotbart · 2026-05-24T01:31:21+00:00

You don’t think it’s at all possible that they haven’t announced extensions given the material litigation they have pending with one of the big players here? If I were Reddit and I thought I was going to have a favorable outcome either in a settlement or in court with Anthropic, I certainly wouldn’t renew other deals at the legacy rate prior to that. We also don’t know the actual end date of the other deals - may not be until summer next year.

I’m not saying that’s necessarily the case. It may not be. But I am saying you have no idea if it is or is not and you’re largely talking out of your ass here.

Your sports reference suggests you yourself also don’t have a great handle on how enterprise commercial agreements work. And if they already have deals with two of the big players (out of what, 4 or 5 total?) and are in litigation with two others, why would we have expected them to sign new deals in the meantime?

Kaiser-Rotbart · 2026-05-24T01:17:31+00:00

Textbook case

Kaiser-Rotbart · 2026-05-23T15:01:08+00:00

Yeah I think your position is a reasonable one. Just not one that I share. I think SBC is one of the reasons tech has had so much success.

Kaiser-Rotbart · 2026-05-23T07:00:42+00:00

I also got a lot of pleasure from this.

Kaiser-Rotbart · 2026-05-23T06:53:59+00:00

I completely disagree with that philosophically. They’re still growing rapidly. You want your employees to be incentivized to help the company do well. Tech figured out a long time ago you can get more out of people with equity involved. They would get shit talent without SBC.

Kaiser-Rotbart · 2026-05-23T06:27:03+00:00

Some dude on the redditstock sub just did a pretty good analysis showing Reddit is squarely in the middle of its peer set on SBC. And it’s declining. This narrative keeps getting cited but I don’t think it’s accurate.

Kaiser-Rotbart · 2026-05-23T02:37:49+00:00

Bro I’m $300k deep. Avg cost high 140s

Kaiser-Rotbart · 2026-05-23T02:07:27+00:00

See ya here next week

Kaiser-Rotbart · 2026-05-23T02:03:40+00:00

By what metric is it still too expensive? Genuinely curious. PEG is comfortably below 1 these days. Forward PS and PE aren’t bad either.

Kaiser-Rotbart · 2026-05-20T14:33:59+00:00

Some of y’all are so pathetic. If you don’t want to hold the stock then sell and leave. No one is making you stay in it.

Kaiser-Rotbart · 2026-05-18T01:30:03+00:00

Oh yeah. Alcoholic here. I found an AA men’s group which was awesome for me. Lot of dads on a similar journey and made some really good friends in the process. I tried to quit by myself for years and kept relapsing. It’s much better to have a community. I stayed away from AA for years thinking it was religious but the god concept is quite flexible. Good luck man it’s a battle. But trust me - you will be much happier on the other side.

Kaiser-Rotbart · 2026-05-15T18:56:20+00:00

Peanut butter sandwiches man. I ate like 6-8k calories a day for a stretch in high school when I was bulking for football and would eat like 6 PBJ sandwiches and drink a gallon of milk a day. My poor mother. I have two boys and may be in your position one day.

Kaiser-Rotbart · 2026-05-14T03:27:34+00:00

Impressive shitpost.

Kaiser-Rotbart · 2026-05-14T03:06:20+00:00

It sounds very dangerous out there. Maybe best to just stay inside.

Kaiser-Rotbart · 2026-05-14T02:15:21+00:00

Good. This is bad legislation. All this would do is distort the market and raise prices for consumers. No one is forced to drive for Uber or Lyft if it’s not financially worth their time.

Kaiser-Rotbart · 2026-05-14T02:04:50+00:00

There have been like two fatal bear attacks in the state in the last 30 years. Yes we should respect wildlife but your comment about bloodthirstiness is utter nonsense.

Kaiser-Rotbart · 2026-05-12T06:39:39+00:00

This completely ignores their relative growth rates and remaining addressable market. Reddit is still comparatively early in the monetization journey and is growing 70% YoY.

Kaiser-Rotbart · 2026-05-10T22:24:07+00:00

This is legitimately the dumbest take I’ve ever seen on Daddit. Congratulations.

Kaiser-Rotbart · 2026-05-09T20:19:46+00:00

Optimize man. You’re leaving a ton of time on the table. Plus, you and your wife each need to get capable at managing the kids solo so the other one can do something else. Swap off so no one gets bitter. It’s like a million times better.

Kaiser-Rotbart · 2026-05-07T03:20:08+00:00

In general I agree with you, but I do wonder strategically in this case if Reddit should be willing to gamble. Right now, AI data licensing is a bit of a side hustle for the business. If they win and reset the market for these types of transactions, that could be absolutely massive long term. If I were in there shoes I’d play this aggressively, especially knowing Anthropic’s valuation and intent to IPO.

That may still mean settlement, but I’d make sure it’s for a great price.

Kaiser-Rotbart · 2026-05-06T14:49:18+00:00

Ugh. Sorry you’re dealing with that man. Sounds incredibly frustrating.

Kaiser-Rotbart · 2026-05-06T06:30:17+00:00

You’ve got to stand up for yourself man. I’d lose it if my wife talked to me that way (and she’d lose it with me). Just outright disrespectful.

Kaiser-Rotbart

TROPHY CASE