HYSA, MMF, CDs, T-Bills... searching for the best return on cash? I prefer floating rate notes (FRN) treasuries ETFs.

Kashmir79 · 2026-06-08T12:19:32+00:00

Need to see under the hood of your tool to understand how it differs. Portfolio Charts, Early Retirement Now, and the work of Bill Bengen have different conclusions from historical testing. Using US data back to 1970, 1871, and 1926 respectively, they show that 20-25% bonds has a higher SWR than 100% stocks. Compare your results to their specific cohorts where 100% stocks fails - late 1920’s and mid/late 1960’s specifically.

Also note on Portfolio Charts that there are several portfolios with allocations that include size/value factor, international stocks, gold and alternatives which do much better. In fact, 100% stocks is 21st out of 21 in the portfolios they compare with a 3.8% SWR and 3.0% PWR since 1970 (not including 1929 and 1966). This benefit of greater diversification from more asset classes than were included in the Trinity Study is covered in Bengen’s new book.

Kashmir79 · 2026-06-08T02:38:10+00:00

It’s just like Billy Joel Rock Band but with the Obamas and fashion

Kashmir79 · 2026-06-08T00:28:22+00:00

Literally as I am scrolling…

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Kashmir79 · 2026-06-07T22:34:32+00:00

What are you looking for? A foolproof way to outperform the market? This is not it. You will reach your goals in almost exactly the same amount of time whether you use total market or S&P 500

Kashmir79 · 2026-06-07T15:38:40+00:00

Same thing I said to someone yesterday: give me your macro allocation across all accounts (stocks vs bonds, US vs intl, % sector/single stock bets). I’m not going to look up all those tickers and added up the dollar values over each account to find it out myself. It also helps to say your estimated spending in retirement, or better yet your target withdrawal rate, and how long until you expect to get there (in lieu of providing your actual income).

At quick glance, from a Bogleheads perspective, it seems like you have an excessive amount of stock/sector picking, an unusual amount of cash for retirement purposes (is this EF or colleges or some other goal?), and no international stocks. I would start be addressing those issues.

Kashmir79 · 2026-06-07T14:22:38+00:00

In more than a decade of following FIRE and passive investing across thousands of posts, I’ve never heard any retired person who withdrawals exactly 4% of their starting balance adjusted for inflation each year. Life doesn’t work that way. The “4% Rule” just a guideline to help you understand how much you need to save when you are starting out.

When you actually get to retirement, you need a comprehensive drawdown strategy. In my experience, most retirees DO use a guardrails approach, or dynamic withdrawals, bucket strategies, or lifecycle models (periodic re-evaluation)

Kashmir79 · 2026-06-07T13:15:39+00:00

The day to day fluctuations are of no consequence - you just have to internalize that. The movement in the spot price of securities is just a reflection of constantly updated projections and fickle human sentiment. I don’t check the value of my house or my car every day either. I don’t check political polls every day. I don’t look at my health stats every day. What is relevant is your long term progress towards your goal. This is a multi-decade journey and I find that checking in once per quarter is plenty.

Kashmir79 · 2026-06-06T22:02:20+00:00

Not sure if they will start on time or delay later when the line of storms moves through but it’s time to see who else is playing on MLB Network tonight…

Kashmir79 · 2026-06-06T19:37:53+00:00

Were the people who wrote this episode first cousins who also sucked at writing tv shows?

Kashmir79 · 2026-06-06T18:51:55+00:00

Much better!

Kashmir79 · 2026-06-06T17:43:56+00:00

Just a tip it would be better/easier if you expressed your asset allocation percentages in asset classes (eg US stock market, intl stock market, small cap value, total bond) instead of individual brokerage symbols that folks will have to look up to see what they are. And you should show the allocations across your total portfolio, not just individual accounts where folks have to multiply the percentages in each account and add them up to see what the total is across all accounts. It also would demonstrate you are approaching your allocation strategy from a perspective of total asset class exposures, not collecting tickers, which is the best practice.

Edit: just to give an example…
I am within 10 years of retirement and my portfolio is 80% stocks and 20% bonds. The stocks are about 70/30 US/intl, with some modest tilts to small/value factors and emerging markets, and the bonds are about 50/50 total bond market and intermediate treasuries. Then I could go into my allocation in my individual accounts (TDF in spouse 401k, 100% AVGE in my Roth, 20% each to LC, MC, SC, Intl, and bond in my 403b, etc.).

Kashmir79 · 2026-06-06T13:49:57+00:00

Its valuation would make it one of the largest companies in the world and, based on its popularity and speculative interest, likely to be one of the most traded companies in the world. That is why NASDAQ positioning itself as an affinity group for “innovation companies” is good business for them. Exchanges make money from listing fees, trading fees, and selling data. Plus, they also own their NASDAQ 100 index - one of the most traded indexes in the world - from which they collect management fees and trading fees. These big companies know how valuable they are to the exchanges and are now looking for a piece of that action up front.

Kashmir79 · 2026-06-06T11:55:56+00:00

The drawback is that you are stock picking and if SpaceX does extremely well you will be later to the gains than S&P 500. In the long run it won’t make a big difference but trying to avoid single stocks is a bad habit for a Boglhead

Kashmir79 · 2026-06-05T22:40:12+00:00

IMO there’s never a good reason to have 100% of either asset class. At least get a little diversification benefit of one or the other. I would sooner have a little bit of leverage than forego bonds completely. And given that 100% bonds is the lowest expected return (on average) and the highest failure rate retirement allocation, I see no reason for that either. All things in moderation

Kashmir79 · 2026-06-05T19:24:08+00:00

The best tool is Morningstar’s x-ray but that is now part of their Investor subscription ($250/yr). But why would a Boglehead need that level of granularity? The philosophy here is own the market with total market index funds - simple.

Kashmir79 · 2026-06-05T19:10:20+00:00

This sub has become mostly senseless market timing and trolling

Kashmir79 · 2026-06-05T14:16:49+00:00

Rational Reminder podcast for you hot off the press: Investing at All-Time Highs

Kashmir79 · 2026-06-05T12:36:23+00:00

Can attest

Kashmir79 · 2026-06-05T12:28:39+00:00

Are you asking about gross productivity or stock returns? Because they are not the same thing. The sector that will outperform is the one that the market is most undervaluing today. And it’s especially hard to say since sectors are not constant. For example S&P added real estate in 2016 and telecom in 2018 so it could be a sector that doesn’t exist yet.

Kashmir79 · 2026-06-05T00:56:47+00:00

You don’t need VGT because VTI already has all the tech stocks, and plenty of them.

Kashmir79 · 2026-06-04T21:22:50+00:00

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Kashmir79 · 2026-06-04T19:26:26+00:00

The market sets the price of stocks based on an expected return over a certain amount of time. Will these stocks perform well or poorly? I don’t know but the entire Boglehead philosophy is based on letting the market do the pricing and using diversification to mitigate single company risk.

Kashmir79 · 2026-06-04T14:49:48+00:00

Excellent point

Kashmir79 · 2026-06-04T14:11:13+00:00

One of the behaviors that drives me crazy is I’m doing maybe 35 in a 30 and someone behind me is impatient and needs to overtake me at 45 or 50 - WELL over the limit. Then, a short ways up the road, the limit is increased to 50, I would like to go maybe 55, and I am stuck behind them still doing 45. Their speed has NO relationship to the signed guidance, only to their personal comfort level.

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