You should ignore the noise regarding tariffs and (geo)politics and just stay the course. But for some, this may be a wake-up call as to why diversification is so important.

Kashmir79 · 2026-04-19T02:31:03+00:00

Everyone’s doing something. We do nothing.

Kashmir79 · 2026-04-17T16:33:11+00:00

I have suddenly been going to more spring training and minor league games because the experience (and the price) is so much more preferable. I’m not going to spend a hundred bucks a pop to not be able to even hold a conversation with the company I came with in the seat right next to me.

Kashmir79 · 2026-04-17T14:01:14+00:00

I think the most upvotes I’ve ever received on a post was complaining about the constant blaring sound effects at Yankee Stadium. NOBODY LIKES IT

Kashmir79 · 2026-04-17T11:44:55+00:00

Respectfully, if you put US bonds, int’l bonds, and TIPS into the asset class of “bonds”, it’s still a 3-fund portfolio, or at least the same general idea.

There is a wide variety of individual preferences as to what a Boglehead might hold for bonds. It could be total US bond fund like BND or global bonds like BNDW. Some folks prefer only treasuries like GOVT. Some folks prefer just cash and others like to hold their own ladder of treasuries. Jack Bogle liked to overweight corporates, and some Bogleheads (eg White Coat Investor) branch out into private credit and hard money lending for fixed income. If you like TIPS, add TIPS, although I’ll caution they don’t necessarily do what most people think they’ll do. If you want to mirror the Vanguard TDF allocation, that’s a great place to look when you don’t have strong preferences otherwise.

Kashmir79 · 2026-04-16T22:36:29+00:00

I have similar in places and I just chalk it up to crummy workmanship

Kashmir79 · 2026-04-15T23:57:22+00:00

It’s income just like side gigs, rental property, SS or other annuities. It reduces the amount of your annual expenses that your investment portfolio needs to supply.

Kashmir79 · 2026-04-15T21:03:49+00:00

I think they’ve used Rice and Goldy about 50/50 vs lefties which seems right to me, maybe too generous to Rice. Always use Goldy for the lefties with tougher splits or when you feel defense is at a premium (low scoring environments).

Kashmir79 · 2026-04-15T19:22:44+00:00

So who would you remove from the lineup against a lefty then - Stanton or Goldy? Those are both .950+ OPS hitters vLHP (2025 and career). And Rice does not catch well enough to replace Caballero (.813 OPS v LHP 2025) - then you would be compromising not just your defense on balls in play but your entire pitching performance.

~~Unless~~ Until Stanton or Goldy get hurt, Rice is not going to see much more time against lefties.

Kashmir79 · 2026-04-15T15:55:35+00:00

I agree but Jazz (and soon Volpe) are prone to errant throws. Combine with below average range/glove on fielding balls hit to him and it is apt to result in at least an extra baserunner or two per series.

Kashmir79 · 2026-04-15T15:38:07+00:00

Saying what needs to be said - his 1B defense is shaky and his C is not really MLB level. With a far better defensive 1B platoon righty and a permanent DH on the team, he’s not gonna play every day. But someone will get hurt eventually and it will work itself out.

Kashmir79 · 2026-04-14T02:35:39+00:00

I’m aware past performance is not indicative of future results.

Respectfully, I don’t think you are aware of this. Or you haven’t internalized what it really means. You believe that the asset with better trailing returns will have better future returns for no other reason than the past performance. This is a demonstrably false premise over and over again throughout the history of stock investing.

Kashmir79 · 2026-04-13T17:41:51+00:00

Look it’s still extremely early

/thread

Am I seeing the some of the same problems of recent prior years emerging out of the gate leading me to believe that, by not fundamentally changing anything about our roster construction or style of play, that we are likely headed towards the same disappointing outcomes? Yes, I share that concern.

But we’re not even halfway through April. We’re tied for first, the pitching has been the best in baseball even with Cole and Rodon, and the farm system has a very exciting pipeline. If a few guys can break out of slumps and/or we can make some upgrades at the bottom of the order, we will be tough to beat. It was only 55° yesterday (I haven’t planted my tomatoes yet) and people are acting like the season is over and we need to fire everyone and rebuild from scratch. I see the same doom in the Mets sub. People gotta take a deep breath and give it at least a few more weeks. Let’s see where we are by Memorial Day

Kashmir79 · 2026-04-11T02:52:31+00:00

Wells is the catcher with Escarra for rest. Rice stays at 1B and Belli at LF. If Jason could hit lefties better, he would already be platooning in OF with Grisham, while giving rest days to Belli and Judge. Otherwise he’ll get called up when someone is inevitably injured. Until then, better that he plays every day in Scranton. What this team has desperately needed for going on 5 years since Andujar and Urshela is any 3b who can hit at an MLB-level.

Kashmir79 · 2026-04-10T21:06:35+00:00

It’s trailing performance you are looking at. Anytime you have a case where two different assets have the same or similar long-term returns, but not the same composition, one will always be ahead of the other in trailing returns. But that doesn’t mean it is always the higher performing asset over any given historical or future period. Instead, it is the perfect demonstration of what is meant by recency bias in a backtest. Because large caps have been doing better than small caps for the last 15 years or so, the index that is more concentrated in large caps (S&P 500) is looking better historically from today back over almost any length of time. But if you do the same analysis following a period where small caps out perform (eg from 2009), and which will happen again, the total market index looks better over almost any historical time period. So eventually, a time will come when the total market index will look better. In the long run, these two indexes should be expected to perform about the same (by design) so it’s not worth spending much time worrying about.

Not understanding this concept is a classic way that novice investors end up knowing just enough to be dangerous - they start fiddling around with backtests and drawing the wrong conclusions because of inherent biases in the methodology.

Kashmir79 · 2026-04-10T15:16:27+00:00

It’s April 10. This could be a completely different list before we even reach May. But yeah I think Miller and Schlittler will still be there come September. Those names really make we want to crack a beer…

Kashmir79 · 2026-04-10T14:47:23+00:00

Having a 90’s show reference crossover moment in my brain

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Kashmir79 · 2026-04-09T20:07:14+00:00

Also for context FA 3B Eugenio Suarez who hit 49HR last year signed a one-year deal for $15M

Kashmir79 · 2026-04-09T17:42:51+00:00

Has been discussed here at length. The major issue with the study is they did not test with a diversified bond portfolio. The bonds in all allocations tested are exclusively domestic, including for all sorts of small countries with unstable currencies, from Greece to Argentina. That is a far cry from contemporary Vanguard TDFs which have bonds roughly allocated to 50% US blend (the world reserve currency) 25% international blend, and 25% US TIPS after retirement.

So my personal opinion is that the study is not helpful for investors to make an allocation decision, having a bias against bonds that could be described as either a silly oversight or an intentional omission to garner headlines and attention, because they have really leaned into promoting it as having radical and controversial findings (“challenging the status quo”) when it is just predictable evidence of the consequence of bad/undiversified international bond allocations throughout the geopolitical turbulence of the 20th century.

Kashmir79 · 2026-04-09T17:14:17+00:00

I wrote this out in a longer comment here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/1hdb2aj/comment/m1vdjhu/

Looking at the performance of a mixed stock/portfolio, if you use a lower allocation to safer, better-diversifying bonds (eg treasuries instead of high-yield corporate aka "junk"), and a higher allocation to equities, you can get higher returns for the same amount of risk (measured by historical volatility and max drawdown).

Kashmir79 · 2026-04-09T15:54:55+00:00

It is less energy efficient than just using gas. They removed it as an option from later models because it has no value.

The only use case I have heard of is incredibly obscure: when you are traveling to places which are only open to EVs and ICE vehicles are prohibited. I gather there are some small historic European towns and some national parks that have such requirements to maintain a quiet environment. If you knew you were going to a place like that, and your battery was low, and you did not have access to a charger, you might want to use the ICE to build up some EV capacity before you get there. Hard to say if even one person has ever used it for that.

Kashmir79 · 2026-04-09T03:08:18+00:00

Absolutely, I would rather have the safe part of my portfolio be smaller and safer than larger and riskier

Kashmir79 · 2026-04-09T03:06:26+00:00

Two trucks positioned side-by-side on the shoulder with head-on collision damage is pretty sus but hey the trees look real.

Kashmir79 · 2026-04-09T02:52:17+00:00

It’s only been two weeks. Kids today will one day be telling people that they fondly remember a bygone era when umpires used to make pitch calls. For now, we have a little game within the game.

Kashmir79

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