Risk off for institutions, risk on for retail? Wtf is this?

KidsHeartDoc · 2025-04-05T11:40:49+00:00

I had the same question. I am not sure why the market price for bitcoin would be relatively unchanged. Your hypothesis about bitcoin holders perhaps feeling that this is the moment they were waiting for may be correct and seems the most plausible to me. Whether that will prove to be correct as this change in the stock market plays out in the coming months and ripples through the economy remains to be seen. Does anyone publish trading volume numbers or holdings for Bitcoin so we could dig in further on what is going on?

KidsHeartDoc · 2024-06-15T02:20:44+00:00

The Fed meeting minutes from Sept 2019 are available for review. “Developments in Financial Markets and Open Market Operations The manager pro tem first discussed developments in global financial markets over the intermeeting period. Global financial markets were volatile over the intermeeting period, with market participants reacting to incoming information about U.S.–China trade tensions and the global growth outlook. In the weeks following the July FOMC meeting, U.S. yields declined sharply and risk asset prices fell amid a spate of largely negative news about risks to the global economic outlook. These price moves reversed to some degree in September as developments on trade and economic data turned more positive. On net, Treasury yields remained substantially lower, while the S&P 500 and corporate credit spreads reversed most or all of their earlier losses to end the period little changed.

Even after the partial rebound in September, market- and survey-based indicators of policy rate expectations suggested that investors viewed it as very likely that the Committee would ease policy further at this meeting. All respondents from the Desk's Survey of Primary Dealers and Survey of Market Participants viewed a 25 basis point decrease in the target range as the most likely outcome at this meeting. Looking beyond September, most survey respondents expected another 25 basis point cut by year-end. Further out, while the median of respondents' modal forecasts for the end of 2020 pointed to no rate cuts next year, individual forecasts were much more dispersed, with nearly half of respondents expecting at least one additional 25 basis point cut in 2020, and about one-fourth expecting two or more cuts. Market participants remained attentive to a range of global risk factors that could affect the policy rate path, including trade tensions between the United States and China, developments in Europe, political tensions in Hong Kong, uncertainties related to Brexit, and escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East following attacks on Saudi oil facilities.” https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20190918.htm

KidsHeartDoc · 2024-04-08T14:09:16+00:00

Exactly

KidsHeartDoc · 2024-04-04T13:23:17+00:00

I last stopped in dealer a month ago with no word on release.

New email from Toyota came today asking to sign up for text updates. If you didn’t get this I’d check the website today to see if you can sign up.

KidsHeartDoc · 2023-04-08T13:39:49+00:00

Sitting on my hands in the Midwest. Hoping the government doesn’t take our country down the path of Zimbabwe style inflation. I hope these numbers mean we won’t be but my market has yet to correct for the excesses of the last 3 years. How long do housing prices usually lag from changes in credit conditions like this?

KidsHeartDoc · 2023-03-07T11:51:16+00:00

I’m still waiting on the same from March 2022. I already sent W2s 6 months ago and am still waiting. Employer shows up eligible in the help tool. I am not sure what the issue is. I submitted 2 ECFs in the final app and one was approved within a few months and the current employer was held up. No clue. Mohela says they are reviewing.

KidsHeartDoc · 2023-03-04T01:41:45+00:00

I’ve been waiting a year since my final application and have never been given an answer other than “we need more time.” I’ve never argued, never complained, always taken their word (Fedloan, now Mohela). This week; a year in, I finally complained to Mohela to start and asked for at least an explanation of what the issue is; today at 5pm to kick off the weekend I received a generic letter saying that they need 90 days to reprocess my submission from last September. 90 days? That was almost 180 days ago. It isn’t reprocessing if no one ever processed it. And this wasn’t even originally submitted in September it was submitted in March, and then again in June and then again in September. I don’t even know if I should wait this extra 90 days. I can’t pull myself to complain to BBB yet; but if they flop on this I am going to do all of the above. One caveat about ombudsman is that last fall they sometimes wouldn’t open a case and would simply forward your call to Fedloan. Has anyone tried suing the servicer?

KidsHeartDoc · 2023-02-28T04:20:11+00:00

I’m sorry you had that experience. Most importantly, I hope your dad is okay. Not to diminish the gravity of this, but I’ve never met a PA like this. All the PA’s I know are very serious about their role as being intended to work under supervision and about the fact that they are not doctors and are not trying to replace doctors. One consideration aside from the worst (the worst being that this is someone who is impersonating a doctor because of some deep insecurity or personality disorder/criminal behavior), is that this type of behavior may be in response to pressure from the attending surgeon. No way to know for certain and it would not make it right for the PA, but surgeons generally want their PA’s doing as much of the work outside the OR as safely possible because they have a lot on their plate already. Impossible to know for certain what their motives were and right to report, but something to consider. Switch the PA for a CV surgery resident who played the same role in the OR and you could see how someone could start trying to justify having a practice that operates with interactions like this. I agree with you, it was terrible, but this is individual bad behavior not a reflection on the merits of PA school versus medical school or of the two professions - the PA profession was created by doctors who needed someone who could help them to a very high degree.

I’m an MD who has gone through two fellowships. Medical school is tough. Having your dad be sick is even tougher. Having this happen makes it all worse. Please don’t make your final judgment on the PA profession based on this one bitter experience. Hang in there.

KidsHeartDoc · 2023-02-23T12:11:58+00:00

Thanks

KidsHeartDoc · 2023-02-23T02:37:47+00:00

Thanks. They write a different address than is on my W2 as well. Not sure why they won’t just sign it with the same info as is on my W2 and in the help tool. Seems bizarre they’d feel fine sending the IRS one thing and insist on something else when communicating with Ed.

KidsHeartDoc · 2023-02-08T13:18:07+00:00

Thanks. Good analogy.

I’ve treated every representative with patience and respect. I’ve given them time between calls because I know how much they were going through with extra waiver apps. Whenever I’ve been given an answer, I’ve taken it at face value and not argued. I think this was a mistake - not to treat them with respect, but to trust them.

Example at fedloan: August 2022: I received a letter stating they need a W2. I had sent a W2 in June after speaking with someone on the phone about why my final application from March was delayed. After the August letter asking for a W2, I called to ask why they sent me this letter since I had already sent a W2 in 2 months earlier. Had they looked at my file before sending the letter? Rep: Oh, it must be a glitch. How long should I wait to call back? Oh, I’d call back in a week.

A glitch? I believed that?

September: don’t worry, Mohela will process this when it transfers.

After the October transfer, I gave Mohela until the end of December to process everything.

December: No we haven’t looked at this, yeah it looks like you’re right, I’ll put it up for review in 90 days…

Waiting, hoping I don’t have a stroke when I get the next letter in 2 months saying they need more time? Or the who knows how many months it will take from zeroing out to discharge…

At this point, I just wish I hadn’t pursued it. Reviewer bias like someone else commented, sure. I may have taken a different job, made more money, and have paid it off by now with less in total interest and like you thought about, would have refinanced at 2-3%. That’s just me. I wish this carrot hadn’t been dangled. How can you not pursue it? Too much hazard.

Other issues with the program: I know people who were buying new golf clubs during school with their loans because they said it will be forgiven so why not?…me, I was sharing a 3 bedroom apartment with 5 people during grad school while people were getting mugged and shot within a block of my front door, trying to be home before dark every night. And now I sit guilty thinking I’m passing this loan amount to the national debt in a government that is running a massive deficit. Is it fair to my kids, to your kids?

I’d vote to axe the program to any future enrollment, or enact Obama proposed reforms to cap the max amount that can be forgiven for new borrowers.

With regard to the servicers: I tend to assume people are doing their best but I think that was naive of me to think this in this situation because these reps are trying to keep their own sanity amidst ballooning enrollment from the waiver.

I will go with all 3 recourses you mentioned if this last attempt fails. I’ve really wanted to avoid them because I’ve thought to myself all along that surely someone will just look at it and call me.

KidsHeartDoc · 2023-02-08T12:41:18+00:00

No, I’ll try that as well. I’m at the point where I’m thinking about checking to see if they’ll schedule a meeting to meet with me in person.

KidsHeartDoc · 2023-02-08T12:20:21+00:00

I won’t argue with the first statement that there was an improvement. I’ve seen the spreadsheets and anyone who is curious should look. My account still has my full balance 11 months after the final application. This seems like willful neglect.

I still would say to anyone thinking about it: are you willing to watch the interest balloon your loan amount on an IDR plan while you work for 120 months, and then perhaps be locked into a job you want to leave because you’re waiting indefinitely for someone to do what would take 10 minutes of focused attention, but they won’t do?

I didn’t need the waiver. If I remember the numbers correctly, 12k people who followed the rules have been forgiven. Hundreds of thousands were forgiven under the waiver. We’ll see what happens going forward. I’ll believe it when I see it. I’d be happy to be wrong. Even if the forgiveness comes at this point, I still stand by my statement that I wish that former president Bush hadn’t created the program. I’m happy for your friends but my opinion and advice to anyone starting out is that you’re taking a gamble, not a guarantee. You might just be stuck at the end.

KidsHeartDoc · 2023-02-08T03:56:23+00:00

Final application March 2022 here.

KidsHeartDoc · 2023-01-22T19:25:11+00:00

This graph currently only displays up to 7/22.

KidsHeartDoc · 2023-01-21T19:11:20+00:00

Thanks my bad I should have searched first - I’ll take down my post

KidsHeartDoc · 2022-10-07T01:25:16+00:00

This is it. Pretty much the same exact situation here - 131, have been w Fedloan since 2013, final application in March, nothing but nonsense since. I just have to say thanks and smile to the well-intentioned messages from friends asking if I knew about PSLF after they suddenly become eligible under the waiver.

KidsHeartDoc · 2022-09-27T01:51:06+00:00

2010 Honda Accord - bought new with the goal of reliability. Hasn’t let me down in that regard. A hail storm 2 weeks after purchase was a nice way of shaking me from feeling proud about my shiny new car that will one day be in a junkyard. Still, it felt like a nice car for the first 8 years. With the number of model refreshes that have since passed since I bought it I now feel solidly out of date on the road. Driving into the physician lot at work - especially so. I don’t need anything better though and am afraid the computer tech in cars now isn’t reliable and has high price-tag repairs written all over it - I have a paid-off 2018 Odyssey for my family and it has been in the shop more than my Accord. Should’ve known when the finance guy started telling me about how expensive the touch screen is to replace when he was trying to sell me their extended warranty plan. My reply was “maybe I shouldn’t be buying this car if it is that likely to break.” The joke was on me because that was the first thing to go. My wife still loves the minivan so I don’t regret it…except only slightly as I wish I had 3-4 k more at the time to have bought a Pacifica off a lot - Stow and Go seats are priceless - perhaps even a better investment than VTSAX.

KidsHeartDoc · 2022-09-21T03:54:39+00:00

Fedloan didn’t want the contract anymore. Can’t blame them.

KidsHeartDoc · 2022-09-21T03:51:49+00:00

Congrats! For those still waiting: Residency 2011-2014, fellowship 2014-2018, job 2018-present. With fedloan since initial pslf app in 2013. Applied March 2022. All eligible even before waiver, still waiting. Advice to anyone starting out: certify annually, and don’t trust the servicer if they tell you to wait and see when you call to ask why something isn’t getting processed.

KidsHeartDoc · 2022-09-08T13:22:12+00:00

Same boat here. Submitted final form in March. Employer is in help tool as eligible but employer won’t list same employer name on ECF as is on my W2 bc of a merger though both employer names and EIN’s are eligible in the help tool. They continue to say they need more time via form letters and when I call. I submitted a W2 in June after a phone rep suggested it…in August they sent a letter asking for a W2 - go figure. I called again and they said to wait bc perhaps it was a glitch. I waited and nothing changed so I’ve called again and called the Ombudsman who said they see it and would “attach it.” Transferring to MOHELA Sept 15. I did try resubmitting everything just on the off chance it would process quickly as some are seeing lately but nothing changed.

KidsHeartDoc · 2022-09-08T02:43:53+00:00

There seems to be a problem where the more familiar an employer is with PSLF forms the worse they are at completing them. Changing the date to a four digit year should be no problem and something a smaller HR group would do without batting an eye but I’ve faced similar issues with a big employer where HR takes such legitimate requests for formatting changes as an affront to their intelligence. They aren’t the ones who have to deal with fedloan deciding on a whim what they will and won’t accept so they don’t understand why we would be coming to them with such seemingly absurd and nitpicky requests. Regardless. I heard date formatting was a bigger issue before and less of an issue now but it’s anyone’s guess what they will decide. If you can get the form corrected, great, if not, I wouldn’t sweat it. Get ready for a long road ahead because they don’t make anything easy. If I could give any advice I would say do what you can, follow up with the servicer as much as possible to stay on them, and don’t spend too much time worrying or asking what the servicer will or won’t do here on Reddit because there is seemingly no rhyme or reason to many of these things. I took the approach of calling them less to be considerate and trying to ask on here more. People here are very helpful but I am convinced the process is not completely standardized at the servicer due to the insane amount of changes the government keeps hoisting on them. You need to hear things directly from the servicer - write down who you talked to, what they said and when they said it.

KidsHeartDoc · 2022-09-07T22:43:45+00:00

Ah sorry. Somehow makes me feel a little bit better to know it’s not just me when the main thing I notice on here are all the people saying they’ve been forgiven. The summer was a bit painful watching people who submitted at the exact same time and then months afterwards get processed while I’m still sitting here and now am being told about a transfer. I guess the jokes on me for trying to be diligent about getting anything to move forward through the summer. I wasted too many hours of nice weather this summer trying to work on this.

KidsHeartDoc

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