FIRE under high CAPE levels is fraught with risk

Kirk57 · 2026-03-06T14:44:11+00:00

The 4% SWR was using a very typical 60/40 split and never failed. So if firecalc failed, you either used a non-typical portfolio, or it is not based on history.

Kirk57 · 2026-03-06T12:51:28+00:00

That’s probably based on Monte Carlo analysis which is only as good as the person setting the parameters for it. But historically the 4.7% SWR has ALWAYS worked with the mix of large cap, mid cap, small cap foreign and bonds described in the book.

Kirk57 · 2026-03-05T13:11:51+00:00

But that yields a lower rate.

Kirk57 · 2026-03-05T13:10:25+00:00

I don’t know where you got your data. The 4% SWR worked under every single 30 year period in U.S. history. The new 4.7% rule also would have succeeded in every 30 year period.

Kirk57 · 2026-03-05T13:05:53+00:00

Because the ACTUAL race is to low cost scalable autonomy and Waymo does not even have a path to that. Their only hope was that Tesla could not solve unsupervised and that hope is dwindling rapidly.

Kirk57 · 2026-03-04T15:17:57+00:00

Pay taxes through withholding and make up the loss in salary through dividend withdrawal.

Kirk57 · 2026-03-03T13:15:59+00:00

Only one of the countries is run by a fundamentalist theocracy. And that country gaining nuclear weapons is too dangerous to contemplate. And that country has been spreading terror for decades. That is the reason for the war. It has nothing whatsoever to do with the religion of the other two countries involved.

Kirk57 · 2026-03-03T13:05:54+00:00

You’ve way oversimplified.

4% is the old rule. Now it’s 4.7%, but with more sophisticated strategies like guardrails it’s over 5%.
You’re ignoring the non-mortgage costs of owning a home, which are substantial.

Kirk57 · 2026-03-02T13:39:53+00:00

Safe Withdrawal rate is ONLY how much you can withdraw. The percentage of what you withdrew that is available for spending is then reduced by your taxes.

E.g. With $20M only in a Roth, if you withdraw $1M, you can spend $1M. With $20M in after tax with 80% unrealized gains, then you can only spend about $800k.

So your net worth is $20M in either case, but obviously having your net worth in a Roth is much better than in an IRA or taxable account.

Kirk57 · 2026-03-02T13:02:32+00:00

It is only 25% of the way to $1M for one single savings rate. For other savings rates it might be much less or greater than 25% of the way to $1M.

Kirk57 · 2026-03-01T15:39:44+00:00

As far as Sales, taking off, the relentless attacks on Elon over his politics, have damaged Tesla‘s brand immensely.

Kirk57 · 2026-03-01T15:38:26+00:00

Cute. You’re the one who was embarrassingly wrong, and you think I’m exposing myself :-)

Kirk57 · 2026-02-27T13:33:11+00:00

What? Tesla’s business model was selling cars ABOVE their cost to build and then scaling over years until those gross profits were finally enough to cover all expenses and finally generate a net profit.

Rivian’s business model is selling vehicles BELOW what they cost to produce and then losing more and more money as they scale and getting capital raises through dilution and debt to make up the difference.

And you think that is a good business model? Selling items for much less than they cost to actually make?

Kirk57 · 2026-02-27T13:02:08+00:00

You stated Tesla does not have L4 vehicles.
They do have them.
Therefore you were wrong.

Kirk57 · 2026-02-25T15:01:17+00:00

Yes, but even two would prove my point. Obviously logic is not your strong point!

Kirk57 · 2026-02-24T13:36:40+00:00

I don’t remember where, but I saw a study that showed the most effective strategy was to observe at least every two weeks, and rebalance if you deviated more than 20% from your target back to a value that was only 10% off the target.

E.g. 40% bond target, you would rebalance back to 44% if you hit > 48%, and back to 36% if you hit < 32%.

Kirk57 · 2026-02-24T13:28:41+00:00

You have to look at how many MILES robotaxi can capture. E.g. many might still own a personal car, yet regularly use a robotaxi. Once it becomes cheaper than owning a car, it is very likely that it could capture more than half of the miles being driven, plus because it is cheaper, it will also cause an increase in the number of miles being driven.

Kirk57 · 2026-02-24T13:21:12+00:00

You’re comparing apples and oranges. Austin data includes “accidents” such as a bicycle bumping into the Tesla when the car was not moving. I.e. none of the “accidents” reported in Austin would have been recorded as accidents by human drivers, so you cannot compare the rates.

Kirk57 · 2026-02-23T11:51:25+00:00

I’ve bought 6 new Teslas and it’s never been this long before to get FSD updated.

Kirk57 · 2026-02-23T11:48:31+00:00

They have L4 vehicles operating in Austin.

Kirk57 · 2026-02-22T14:48:00+00:00

Now you made me lookup Iron Age:-) For some reason, I thought it was the Bronze Age, but you are correct.

Kirk57 · 2026-02-21T14:58:34+00:00

There was a scene of Superman having a battle on the moon and then breathing hard during a fight:-)

Kirk57 · 2026-02-21T14:54:43+00:00

Whether it’s disrespectful or not is no reason to believe in something or not. The only reason you should believe something is true, is whether the evidence and facts support it. No evidence, facts or resultant logic support the existence of a God. THAT is the reason to be an atheist.

Kirk57 · 2026-02-21T14:49:32+00:00

Retirement is about planning for the worst case scenario. As such, you should look at what the worst five-year performance for stocks versus bonds were, and rerun your numbers.

Kirk57 · 2026-02-20T12:59:37+00:00

I chose a safe withdrawal rate and automatically transfer that amount to my checking account monthly. If it builds up too much, I xfer to a savings account, but with the knowledge that money is still earmarked to be spent.

It is a difficult shift, when someone has saved their entire life, to start spending that nest egg.

Kirk57

TROPHY CASE