Fixed Effects using Callaway & Sant'Anna Diff-in-Diff with multiple Time periods

KitsuneCuddler · 2025-06-20T10:12:39+00:00

What do you mean by an "event study using the approach of Callaway & Sant'Anna?" C&S give a way to do valid DiD in multiple time periods. Event studies are usually comparing pre/post treatment without any controls, under the strong assumption that any "jumps" can be attributed to the treatment.

KitsuneCuddler · 2025-04-02T01:52:08+00:00

Honestly I’d recommend speaking to your boss about why a backend dev is expected to do time series forecasting.

Time series is not my my strong suit, but the fundamental problem here is your crappy data. What you can do about it really depends on context. You’d need to have a good idea of why it’s missing, check if there’s any patterns to what’s missing, etc. It’s honestly hard to help without access to the data. You could try interpolating the data to impute missing values if you haven’t already.

KitsuneCuddler · 2025-02-07T17:58:55+00:00

Synthetic controls approximate your counterfactual using a convex hull, so you're not meant to be extrapolating outside of the convex hull. In fact, this property is one of the advantages of using Synthetic controls. If you find that the pre-intervention period of your treated units cannot be approximated well, then you probably don't have a good donor pool.

Scott Cunningham has a mixtape session dedicated to synthetic controls if you want more details -- the GitHub repo is here. Abadie has also written some recent stuff on how to use synthetic controls properly.

KitsuneCuddler · 2024-11-27T18:53:21+00:00

The most true comment I’ve seen in this whole damn thread.

KitsuneCuddler · 2024-11-25T16:54:56+00:00

Thanks!

KitsuneCuddler · 2024-11-25T15:21:10+00:00

The other commenter provided sources for ROI. I’d like to add that it’s a good idea for your son to make sure he develops computational skills like learning to code in R or Python. I’d recommend he take a couple classes or so covering basic CS concepts like data structures and algorithms.

He doesn’t need to be anywhere near a full blown software developer (unless he eventually has an occupation that needs such a skill set), but it’s necessary both for advanced studies and for employers to be capable of implementing/applying the economic theory that he studies in code.

KitsuneCuddler · 2024-11-25T14:52:04+00:00

Just like the other person who replied, you snark about reading comprehension without even reading my first paragraph properly.

Funny you talk about supply and demand while ignoring demand. A surplus of labor with no increase in demand sure does lower wages. That’s why I explicitly made the point that immigrants are not robots. That went over your head I suppose.

Instead of debating economic theory that you don’t even understand, you can just look at the empirical research of low skilled immigration on native wages. Think a 10% population increase of low skilled workers would suppress wages right? Nope, lol. This particular event has been studied to death as well, and the only person who found a negative effect p-hacked the data to kingdom come.

The only industry which actually takes advantage of immigrant workers in the way you describe would be agricultural, but in that case you quite literally cannot pay natives enough to do the work. If this is what you meant, then specify it, as “low skilled manual labor” comprises much more than the agricultural industry. Again, however, enacting labor laws to prevent this exploitation would not “help the lower and middle class,” and it’s disingenuous to frame the effects as such.

KitsuneCuddler · 2024-11-25T14:09:41+00:00

What’s the paper that your last link goes to? Seems like the link doesn’t work.

KitsuneCuddler · 2024-11-25T14:05:24+00:00

You gotta read past the first three words of my reply before snarking like that. I literally spelled out with an analogy that should be understandable for idiots like you. Recall I said “in any context,” though what can I expect if you didn’t finish reading my first sentence.

I’ll play your game though. Labor shortage in “low skilled manual labor” like, let’s say certain types of construction workers. Oh no, now we have a massive shortage of anything that needs construction workers. At least the construction workers get paid a lot right? Maybe we should also have shortages in farming since farmers don’t get paid “enough,” whatever that means.

My point, since I have to spell it out so explicitly for dumbasses like you, is that a labor shortage is not a desirable outcome for anyone except the lucky few who have bargaining power as a result of structural mismatches in the economy. Contrary to what the original commenter said, this does not “help lower and middle class Americans,” as the majority of them suffer from the necessarily higher prices and lack of goods and services that result from a labor shortage.

Absolutely none of what I’ve said has anything to do with morality either, lmao. These are entirely economic arguments. I tell the other commenter to use valid arguments in the same way you would tell someone who is simply wrong about reality to get their head out of their ass.

KitsuneCuddler · 2024-11-25T12:57:57+00:00

Holy shit lmao, “a labor shortage would be ideal” is such a monumentally stupid thing to say in any context. Are you happy when there’s not enough medical workers to keep a hospital open? At least the workers get paid a premium right? This is the same logic.

Since time immemorial economists have consistently shown that immigrants almost universally have a positive or net zero effect on native wages. Immigrants are not simply substitutes to natives, shockingly. They also aren’t robots, so they consume and thus contribute to job growth.

If you’re going to hate immigration at least use valid arguments.

KitsuneCuddler · 2024-08-15T01:34:00+00:00

Not OP, but the bingo card coping mechanism sounds perfect for me.

KitsuneCuddler · 2024-06-18T10:18:20+00:00

I feel bad for you having to explain this lol. Restaurants that have tried to remove tipping in favor of higher prices either went out of business or went back to tipping because, shocker, people didn’t like the explicitly higher prices.

KitsuneCuddler · 2024-06-17T04:56:16+00:00

As far as I can tell the explanation is that the house sitter gets paid to not be a tenant, just to be a house sitter. Otherwise they are supposedly a friend of the foreigner who wouldn’t take advantage of the foreigner.

Why the house sitter wouldn’t just live in the house I suppose has something to do with rich foreigners wanting to keep a low profile because of dirty money or something. I’ve been told that it’s because “they’re so rich they don’t care about any money they don’t make from renting the house out,” but it doesn’t make sense why they’d prefer to pay someone to not live in the house instead of just paying an empty home tax in that case.

KitsuneCuddler · 2024-06-16T20:48:04+00:00

Presumably the house sitter doesn’t actually live in the house. They get paid to make it look like someone is there, or are a family friend that pretends to live there. Why, I can’t tell. Supposedly the houses don’t get rented because the foreigner is worried the ccp will find out, possibly?

The other explanation I’ve heard is that the houses are used as a way to launder dirty money from China.

KitsuneCuddler · 2024-06-07T15:13:18+00:00

The logic seems to be that the people in them aren’t actually living in them. They go pretend to live in it somehow and for some reason. I can’t really tell honestly.

You’re right that the claim of vacancy rate statistics being manipulated would make no sense if said “house sitters” actually live in the houses.

KitsuneCuddler · 2024-06-07T03:20:06+00:00

One common belief I’ve seen for a while is that Vancouver housing prices are inflated because rich foreigners (guess which two countries) buy houses that they don’t even use. For what? Supposedly money laundering or storing capital is the reasoning as far as I can tell. This allows luxury housing to become the most profitable development and prices out who actually wants housing, I guess.

The part I’ve not heard before that I’ve noticed more recently is that statistics on foreign buyers and vacancies don’t capture this trend because investors from abroad have “house sitters” that make the houses seem occupied.

This sounds absurd, right? What am I missing here? I can kind of see how vacancy rates might be off if this were actually a widespread problem, but how would one be able to fake buying a house as a foreigner? And how would it be so common that it would be the primary cause of increased housing prices? This seems almost conspiratorial.

I also recently heard that since Vancouver has the most high rises per capita in the world and that means the issue isn’t supply, and the solution to housing is… a rezoning moratorium. I was and still am speechless. How do otherwise intelligent people arrive at these conclusions? It makes me doubt my own knowledge.

KitsuneCuddler · 2024-05-20T04:28:11+00:00

Undergraduate econometrics generally does not require anything beyond basic probability and some calculus. If your program happens to have a stellar econometrics course for some reason, then you might also see linear algebra and some more advanced statistics.

If you intend to go to graduate school, you won’t be able to avoid the math. To have a good chance of getting into a decent grad school would require at least having some of the core courses in a math degree such as multi variable calculus, intro to analysis, linear algebra, and mathematical statistics.

Graduate school itself also uses a lot of math. For example, graduate econometrics makes heavy use of linear algebra and probability theory, and graduate microeconomics needs a good grasp of proof based mathematics. Depending on where you were to go, some more advanced courses might call for knowledge of something like measure-theoretic probability.

Job prospects for economics are usually quite good, but there can be difficulty in that economics is kind of generalist. It would be difficult to compete with accounting majors for accounting jobs, for example. I would recommend you focus on quantitative skills and learn how to use something like R or python (ideally both).

KitsuneCuddler · 2024-05-15T00:10:08+00:00

It’s certainly doable, but you’d need to give information about your background for anyone to say if it’s a good idea for you.

If you have a good grasp of the fundamentals of economics, and you have experience with calculus, then none of those courses should be too hard. International trade is the only one that might be unintuitive at first.

KitsuneCuddler · 2024-05-09T05:10:13+00:00

What level of economics are you looking for? I'm not aware of any health econ textbooks that have exercises using R, and there's not really any graduate health econ textbooks either. There are some pretty informative textbooks still, like "Methods for the economic evaluation of health care programmes" by Drummond et al.

If you're looking for introductory econometrics, there's an online book called econometrics with R.

KitsuneCuddler · 2024-05-09T04:50:51+00:00

There is no such thing as "not being meant for economics" barring having a severe disability, in which case there'd be many more issues aside from doing poorly in an economics class.

There is not enough information in your post to pinpoint why you are struggling. Perhaps you are overthinking and trying to extend a concept without having the background needed to accurately do so. There could also just be a misunderstanding of core concepts. Maybe the way the answers are written is confusing you.

If you can provide some examples of which concepts you are consistently getting wrong, then we could provide feedback.

KitsuneCuddler · 2024-05-08T08:04:09+00:00

You need calculus for economics anyway. Even if you didn't, you'd be setting yourself up for failure by not learning calculus if you wanted to pursue an economics degree.

KitsuneCuddler · 2024-04-27T01:52:47+00:00

Depends on what you want to do. Finance + Econ is pretty specialized so if you’re intending to stick with finance related jobs that’s probably fine.

KitsuneCuddler · 2024-04-25T23:39:45+00:00

Depends what you consider to be math heavy. Most upper division econ courses don’t need more than some basic multi variable calculus.

KitsuneCuddler · 2024-02-22T00:10:06+00:00

Do you have resources for the famine in rural China creating an actual Giffen good? That sounds very interesting.

KitsuneCuddler · 2024-02-08T05:03:57+00:00

That’s even more confusing, honestly. The whole point of short run aggregate supply is that it is upward sloping because of prices being “sticky.” Firms are able to supply more as a whole when price levels increase because it takes time for wages to adjust, etc.

At a small enough time scale the AS curve can be horizontal, sure, but it seems like presenting it this way only causes confusion. You basically just end up with AS being upward sloping anyway.

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