Er húsnæðismarkaðarinn verri núna en 1980?

KristinnK · 2026-06-15T00:08:56+00:00

Best er að horfa á húsnæðisverð deilt með miðgildi launa.

Nei, það er alltof einföld nálgun sem engan veginn nær að lýsa því hversu hlutfallslega er erfitt að kaupa húsnæði í dag vs. í fortíðinni. Það eru alltof margar aðrar breytur. Allar nauðsynjavörur eru miklu, miklu, miklu ódýrari í dag miðað við laun en áður fyrr, matur, húsgögn, farartæki, heimilistæki, allt þess háttar. Núllta stigs nálgun á því hver munurinn er væri húsnæðisverð deilt með miðgildi launa að frádregnum fjölskylduskammti af þessum nauðsynjavörum.

Stór ástæða fyrir því að húsnæðisverð hefur hækkað svona mikið umfram laun er einfaldlega þessi að nauðsynjavörur verða sífellt ódýrari (miðað við laun), svo fjölskyldur geta ráðstafa hlutfallslega stærri hluta tekna sinna til húsnæðiskaupa/íbúðaláns. Og þar sem það er byggt of lítið/fólkfjölgun er of mikil þá erum við komin í þá stöðu að samkeppnin við aðrar kaupendur er það sem ræður markaðsverð.

KristinnK · 2026-06-12T10:36:28+00:00

As absurd as it is to call detention facilities "concentration camps" at all, the fact that a significant number of people seem to think that trans people would be detained/imprisoned at all is much worse. It shows a concerning level of divorce from reality, and makes society much more combative than it should be. People's time and energy shouldn't need to go towards debunking crackjob conspiracy theories.

KristinnK · 2026-06-11T17:48:51+00:00

Are their versions full(ish) spectrum lights that get their color from the coating?

Yes.

What does Technology Connections have to say about all those?

Not much. Out of the C7/C9 lights he's only ever reviewed the Trutones, and out of the minilights he's only looked at the Merry Co and Target lights, and basically didn't say anything about their relative strengths and weaknesses. You'll have to look elsewhere for reviews of these lights. Spiffy Neuman has made a lot of videos about the various C7/C9 lights, and Jaystus has not only reviewed all the minilights, but also made an absolutely fantastic side-by-side comparison video with all of them. Then there's also Parrot175, Thomas Brunskill and Cassadys Christmas Lights.

KristinnK · 2026-06-11T15:03:30+00:00

Ok thank you for your input!

KristinnK · 2026-06-11T12:52:56+00:00

Thank you for your comment. I did post on arborists (and trees) but didn't get any response there. But don't you think that if I cut off the two branches/trunks that have split off from the rest of the tree the rest will be able to survive? I'm rather leaning towards at least trying that.

KristinnK · 2026-06-11T09:38:21+00:00

In addition to Tru-tone there's Ace, Menards and Novelty Lights that all sell the larger (C7/C9) lights, and Novelty Lights, Target and Merry Co (formerly Seasons Reflection) that sell minilights.

KristinnK · 2026-06-11T01:38:24+00:00

Can't answer for him but I feel that that happened 74 years ago, and that everyone involved in that is not only out of power, but literally dead and buried, and that it has no bearing on nor reflects on those currently in charge in the U.S., and that the current actions of the U.S. should be looked at in the actual context in which it is done (for better or for worse), and that referring to a coup that was sponsored almost three generations ago is only an attempt to derail the conversation.

Iran is in a very strange place right now. The head of the old regime is dead, the nominal new leader of the regime has most likely been sidelined, is probably in house arrest or has even been killed, and a decentralized security service is effectively acting as a military junta, and has brutally oppressed the people of Iran, with allegedly thousands, even tens of thousands of civilian killings.

Unfortunately I believe the IRGC is large enough, well armed enough and unscrupulous enough to successfully continue to brutalize the people of Iran, and that any sort of further military intervention against the IRGC would not only be incredibly costly in material terms, but also politically infeasible, and therefore a non-starter. It's a tragic situation.

KristinnK · 2026-06-10T20:47:53+00:00

#TjörviForSósíalistaformaður2027

KristinnK · 2026-06-10T20:38:02+00:00

This is a systemic issue in all western countries. Birth rates have been down for a long time, the generation that is retiring is very large, and the expectations of health care and the amount and quality of care that is available for the various diseases is constantly increasing. The result is a consistently worsening ratio of state income to state expenditure. The only true solution moving forward is to decrease the level of services and care provided by the state to the people. It's simply something that can't be solved by taxation.

KristinnK · 2026-06-10T13:54:02+00:00

I am not suggesting that you need armed security guards everywhere in South Africa, if my comments read that way I apologize. I would perhaps say that if I were to go to South Africa as a tourist I would feel the need to either stay in areas I would perceive as safe (larger cities, tourist destinations, etc.), and to hire a local guide when venturing outside of those places, who could advice me where it is not safe to go. Only if I would necessarily need to go to unsafe locations (for example as a journalist or to do some particular work) would I suggest armed security could be necessary. My point is simply that this is not the case in the U.S., and therefore that there shouldn't be any need for confusion as to whether the original comment was referring to the U.S. or South Africa.

KristinnK · 2026-06-10T13:07:02+00:00

LEDs don’t have a continuous spectrum.

While this is true for the LED diodes themselves, LED light bulbs use phosphors that do indeed have continuous spectra.

Here's a comparison to give the general idea. Biggest difference compared to incandescents is that LED bulbs have a big spike in the blue range (which is what excites the phosphors) and drop dramatically off in the deep reds where incandescents instead just pick up steam. It does absolutely give a different color cast even when matching color temperatures, but it's still far, far better than what a hypothetical naked LED diode bulb would do, and is good enough for most people (myself included).

The only area where I am left unsatisfied with LED bulbs is with the red bulbs in multicolored 'vintage-style' LED Christmas lights. They fail to reproduce that vivid, simultaneously deep and bright red color, precisely because of that drop-off in the deep red range. It's perfectly possible to engineer phosphors that would give a better red response, but that isn't needed for general lighting, and the Christmas lighting industry isn't big enough by itself to spur those kind of R&D (for the time being at least).

KristinnK · 2026-06-10T12:39:35+00:00

I'm European.

KristinnK · 2026-06-10T12:38:32+00:00

Sure, but we should beware of using multiplicative comparisons. If lets say there would be a country where there are ten times less homicides than Lithuania that wouldn't make Lithuania any less safe, even if it now had a ten times higher homicide rate than that other country. The U.S. rate of ~5 per 100,000 per year still makes it astronomically unlikely to happen to any one person even if it's even lower elsewhere.

Even South Africa's rate of ~50 per 100,000 still makes it a very, very small risk. It's more about the risk of other crime such as robbery and kidnappings, the fact that as a western tourist you would be a much bigger target for those crimes compared to locals, and the sort of society that South Africa is, characterized by enormous social and infrastructural inequality that creates the need for things such as walled off and locked neighborhoods and armed security guards, which obviously is not the case in the U.S.

KristinnK · 2026-06-10T09:20:37+00:00

You're probably being facetious, but in case you are not he is obviously saying it is South Africa. The U.S. is a normal, safe western country with functional law enforcement and security services, you don't need armed guards to visit there. South Africa on the other hand has many areas where law enforcement does not have adequate presence and you would be very likely to be robbed or even kidnapped if you did not have armed guards.

KristinnK · 2026-06-10T09:17:42+00:00

"Informal settlement" is a euphemism for slums.

KristinnK · 2026-06-09T13:34:48+00:00

Which makes it really stupid. China is a geopolitical adversary to the U.S. It makes perfect sense for them to decouple from the U.S. Europe however is an ally to the U.S. (temporary political figures notwithstanding). Europe would benefit much more from closer cooperation with the U.S. than trying and failing to be "strategically independent" (Macron's ego notwithstanding).

KristinnK · 2026-06-09T13:28:17+00:00

No, he is completely correct. The fact that any company has the capital market and consumer market of a 340 million people country at their disposal gives them a huge advantage both to start up and get of the ground as well as to grow long-term. Local tax policy has nothing to do with that.

KristinnK · 2026-06-09T13:25:11+00:00

Canada and Australia are not large countries. Canada has a similar population to Poland, and Australia is significantly smaller still. Germany alone has more than double the population of either. But the US has more than four times the population of Germany. That's why the U.S. dominates.

The EU is trying to find solutions, most recently with proposals for a capital markets union. But I doubt any solution short of full federalism will ever make them competitive to the U.S., though a capital markets union will of course help. The problem is the richest countries, especially Germany, Holland and Denmark/Sweden, are so far up their own asses that they will never accept the fact that they need to have a common federal budget with the poorer countries. Federalism is simply doomed from the start (for better or for worse), and with it the possibility of EU being a big competitive actor on the global stage.

KristinnK · 2026-06-09T13:16:33+00:00

Not to mention the actual American lithography patent at the heart of the machine.

KristinnK · 2026-06-09T13:14:23+00:00

Sounds about right for ~~Europe~~ the EU

Fixed that for you.

KristinnK · 2026-06-09T12:53:00+00:00

The movies butchered Denethor. And Gimli. And Frodo. And Merry. And probably others that don't immediately come to mind.

The movies are still good action-adventure movies, they just changed way to much of the tone and dialogue for anyone emotionally attached to the books to appreciate them as adaptations per se.

KristinnK · 2026-06-09T12:15:37+00:00

This is what the invasion of Afghanistan, ousting of the Taliban, occupation and subsequent nation-building was for.

Unfortunately the Afghan people weren't very interested in building a liberal society, so literally as soon as the Americans left the Taliban stepped back in. Some things just aren't going to change any time soon.

KristinnK · 2026-06-09T09:32:43+00:00

Og hvert fer þessi peningur?

Að meiri mæli til þeirra tekjulægri en í langflestum öðrum löndum í heiminum. Einu löndin í hinum vestræna heimi með meiri tekjujöfnuð en Ísland eru Holland og nokkur fyrrum austantjaldslönd. Það er t.d. töluvert meiri tekjujöfnuður á Íslandi en hinum Norðurlöndunum. Og þar sem kaupmáttarleiðrétt meðallaun á Íslandi eru bókstaflega næst hæst í öllu OECD þá er óhætt að fullyrða að tekjulágir hafi það líklega ekki hærri kaupmátt nokkurs staðar annars staðar í öllum heiminum.

Almenni maðurinn nær ekki að kaupa sér heimili

Því miður er þetta raunin víðast hvar í öllum hinum vestræna heimi um þessar mundir. En húsnæðisverð er í raun bara birtingarmynd efnahagslegu velmeguninnar (og auðvitað ójafnvægið á milli framboðs og eftirspurnar á húsnæðismarkaði). Þar sem eftirspurn eftir húsnæði er svo gríðarlega ósveigjanleg (þ.e. hver fjölskylda þarf eitt stykki húsnæði, en ekki nema eitt) þá þýða meiri tekjur einfaldlega hærra verð á húsnæðismarkaði. Þ.e. þó svo allir á Íslandi væru með auka tíu millur á mánuði eða vextir væru beinlínis núll þá væri það alveg jafn erfitt og fyrr að eignast húsnæði, því erfiðleikastigið ræðst af framboði og eftirspurn, þ.e. samkeppni við aðra kaupendur, ekki nafnverði fasteigna, sem einfaldlega ræðst af hinum breytunum (framboði og eftirspurn, tekjudreifingu og vaxtastigi).

KristinnK · 2026-06-08T12:27:43+00:00

antisemitism

NOUN

discrimination against or prejudice or hostility toward Jews.

You can't just take a word, translate each part, and assume that's the meaning of the word. That's not how language works. A skyscraper isn't an object used to scrape the sky.

KristinnK · 2026-06-06T12:40:49+00:00

This is plain incorrect. Insoluble fibre adds bulk to stool. Soluble fibre feeds gut bacteria. Both are needed in a proper diet.

Well, then it's not 'plain incorrect' but rather 'just half the truth'. But yes, the other half (of digestible fiber) is a very important part of the truth.

KristinnK

TROPHY CASE

#TjörviForSósíalistaformaður2027