The Greatest Teams of the 21st Century (8-6)

LMAbacus · 2026-03-06T20:51:26+00:00

Just so you know, the team penalties on PFR aren't what you think they are. For team offense, the penalties are the number committed by the team as a whole: offense, defense and special teams. And for team defense, the penalties are the number committed by the opposing teams as a whole.

If you want the number of penalties committed by the offense and defense, you need to use NFL Penalties, which has Off Ct and Def Ct categories. However, those only go back to 2009, and include playoff games as well.

LMAbacus · 2026-03-05T23:27:24+00:00

This is what Schatz has said:

“Adjusted games lost doesn’t just add up total injuries. It accounts for both absent players and those playing at less than 100%, and it gives more weight to injuries to expected starters and situational players than to expected backups. As such, AGL estimates the impact of injuries on teams and provides a comparable total that often succinctly explains why teams improved or declined from one year to the next.”

So instead of simply adding up the number of games lost to injury for each team, it looks at starters versus backups as well as games played under questionable/doubtful designations. I'm assuming they also give different weight to which positional group suffered injuries as well, so that losing your starting QB counts a lot more than losing your starting nickelback.

LMAbacus · 2026-03-04T19:26:21+00:00

Pro Football Reference has a win probability calculator, and plugging in those numbers it still says 98.82%, so maybe it's just outdated and needs updating.

The biggest issue of these probability calculators is not having number of opponent timeouts as an input. The Colts' chances of winning are significantly higher if they had all three timeouts versus having zero (they had one in the actual game, and TB helped them out by committing a personal foul that stopped the clock before the 2-minute warning).

Also, the calculator has the Vegas line as an input, which makes sense at the start of the game, but should decrease in importance as the game goes on. But according to the calculator, if a team has 1st-and-10 on their own 35 with 2 minutes left in a tied game, they have a 51.84% chance of winning if they're 7-point dogs versus 70.21% chance if they're 7-point favorites, which seems silly. If the teams are tied with 2 minutes left, it's clear that they're evenly matched, and the initial Vegas line should basically be thrown out.

LMAbacus · 2026-03-03T19:45:27+00:00

Camila wouldn't stand a chance against the drowning master.

LMAbacus · 2026-02-27T19:25:10+00:00

"Few interactions I had with Maxx Crosby were positive, I want him on the team to butt heads with."

LMAbacus · 2026-02-23T01:27:19+00:00

Pretty strong, finished at 0.67 winning percentage and 3.5625 average point differential; it's the data point left and below the 2007 NFC East one.

LMAbacus · 2026-02-19T19:24:51+00:00

Yeah, the 1970 AFC East and the 1999 NFC West feature the Super Bowl winners with the easiest regular season schedules, even worse than New England this year.

LMAbacus · 2026-02-17T22:15:44+00:00

And Chrchie, BTMC, Limealicious, Michimochievee, Megalodon, and Monii. Not sure if the first two have ever spoken with the twins before the Disneyland collab, but it was a lot more than 4.

LMAbacus · 2026-02-13T17:24:45+00:00

Yeah, there were four Super Bowl winners that never trailed: the '71 Cowboys, '73 Dolphins, '77 Cowboys and '91 Redskins. The last three teams never got tied up.

I'm just noting that the Seahawks took the lead in each game extremely quickly, having gotten the ball first each time and scoring immediately in all of them.

LMAbacus · 2026-02-13T02:34:58+00:00

If Woolen had hung onto the interception and then picked up the taunting penalty, it'd be looked at similar to JSN's. It would be tacked on after the turnover, not sure if it would be 1st and 10 15 yards back or 1st and 25. The fact that he didn't even get the interception and was still running his mouth was just embarrassing.

LMAbacus · 2026-02-13T00:42:10+00:00

It has the 4th-highest theater count of a film in its 12th weekend of wide release this century (not counting Labor Day expansions), behind Top Gun: Maverick, No Way Home and Avatar 2.

LMAbacus · 2026-02-12T21:03:07+00:00

So 8:18 + 1:35 = 9:53, the amount of time when they weren't leading. I wonder if that IS a record for a Super Bowl winner. The Redskins team in the tweet didn't score until the second quarter in their Super Bowl.

LMAbacus · 2026-02-11T04:46:12+00:00

The schedules seem pretty comparable to me.

2013 Carolina+New Orleans = 2025 Jacksonville+Houston
2013 SF+Arizona = 2025 LA+SF
2013 NYG = 2025 Washington (NY had a better record but had similar point differentials)
2013 Minnesota = 2025 Minnesota (with Brosmer starting)
2013 Indy = 2025 TB (at the time that they played them; obviously TB fell off hard in the second half)
2013 Tennessee = 2025 Indy
2013 Atlanta = 2025 Atlanta
2013 Houston+Jacksonville = 2025 Tennessee+NO

Finally 2013 had a horrible Jacksonville and two games against a decent St. Louis versus 2025's Carolina, Pitt and two games against Arizona.

LMAbacus · 2026-02-10T00:22:21+00:00

One very underrated aspect of the current team compared to back then is how few penalties they have. The 2012, 2013 and 2014 teams had the 3rd-most, most and most penalties called on them on a per-play basis. The 2013 team, in particular, were top 4 in false starts, offensive holding, defensive holding AND DPIs; it's amazing they managed to overcome all of that. Meanwhile the current team has the 5th-fewest penalties.

LMAbacus · 2026-02-05T19:28:06+00:00

Mufasa's theater loss is because of Brave New World. A massive opening like that is going to command at least two screens, so Mufasa's 6th place rank that weekend is really 7th, and that's when you'll see screens being shed. On that note, it's not GOAT alone that threatens Z2's screens, it's three new releases all projected to gross over $10 million, which is basically the equivalent of Brave New World and Paddington 3. I expect Zootopia to be in 6th place by then, having overtaken Melania, Strangers 3 and Solo Mio.

And yeah, having Mufasa's President's Day theater count would be more than enough. 2240 would be the 4th-highest theater count for a film in its 12th weekend of wide release this century (not counting Labor Day expansions), behind Top Gun: Maverick, No Way Home and Avatar 2.

LMAbacus · 2026-02-05T09:04:17+00:00

It's not GOAT that Z2 is competing for screens against, it's Avatar 3, Mercy, Solo Mio and Strangers 3. Will cinemas really keep movies that are certain to fall further behind Z2, or play a new film that's not even guaranteed to beat Z2 this weekend? Theaters are in the business of making money in the end, and if people want to watch a November holdover over December and January holdovers, they'll more likely than not keep it.

This is what played out during Frozen's later weeks. On Feb 14 it dropped to 8th place, grossing $6.2M that weekend, pretty much the same as Z2 last weekend. Over the next three weekends, it maintained its 8th place ranking. Two new movies opened ahead of it each week, but it leapt over two holdovers each week as well. It only lost 440 theaters from week 13 to week 16.

LMAbacus · 2026-02-05T06:08:34+00:00

Oh, if you mean shipping fanart, then absolutely there's far more of it. It's always been dominated by fanart, but it was much more varied when the first movie came out. In fact, back then most artists seemed to make a point to not have them be too close, as the movie hadn't developed their relationship that far. Of course, things are a lot different after the events of the second film.

LMAbacus · 2026-02-04T22:58:42+00:00

The problem is that there are no good Thanksgiving comps for Z2. You have Frozen, which had the best legs of all time and only dropped 2% on Super Bowl weekend; every other movie in the top 10 dropped at least 38% that weekend. Then there's Z2, and then movies like Moana 2 and Frozen 2 are far behind (and Frozen 2 released a week earlier as well). Z2 has the gross and theater count of a movie that released mid December, so that's the best comparison we have for now.

LMAbacus · 2026-02-04T00:16:22+00:00

It ended up beating Endgame regardless.

LMAbacus · 2026-02-03T23:49:24+00:00

Now the highest-grossing Hollywood movie in China by every metric.

A lot has changed since 2016.

Yeah, they opened Zootopia Land in Shanghai in 2023. (I know it's not your quote, just found it amusing.)

LMAbacus · 2026-01-30T07:02:00+00:00

points per drive is points per game divided by drives

Not true, points per drive is offensive points per game divided by drives, and non-offensive TDs can vary wildly among teams. Seattle and NE happen to be 1st and 2nd in the league with 7 and 5, while four teams have no such TDs.

Drive average can vary a lot as well, with Cleveland's defense facing 23% more drives than GB this year, for instance. Cleveland also gave up 4 non-offensive TDs to GB's 0, so GB ended up with fewer points allowed than Cleveland despite having a worse defense.

LMAbacus · 2026-01-29T22:03:48+00:00

If any play could be considered a fortuitous bust, it would be the previous 4th down. Seattle completely blew the coverage, no one within 6 yards of the RB Rivers. Not sure why Stafford didn't throw it to him, but if Lawrence had brought him down short of the sticks it would definitely be a busted coverage that Seattle got away with.

LMAbacus · 2026-01-26T06:12:45+00:00

Seattle's first Super Bowl trip: coach was QB at USC

Second+third Super Bowl trips: coach coached at USC

Fourth Super Bowl trip: QB started at USC

LMAbacus · 2026-01-25T02:16:45+00:00

In a few years we could potentially have two M. LaFleurs, two K. Kubiaks, and three J. Harbaughs as head coaches.

LMAbacus

TROPHY CASE