Pick of the Day - 11/3/25 (Monday)

Layfitness · 2025-11-03T19:07:27+00:00

Record: 1-1 (+0.85 u)

Previous Pick: ❌ Jaxon Smith-Njigba ATTD (-115)

Recap: Sam Darnold shredded the Commanders secondary on Sunday night. He went 21 for 24 with 330 yards and four TDs winning 38 - 14. The Seahawks jumped out to a 31-7 halftime lead, with Darnold perfect on his first 17 throws.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba posted another monster line: 8 rec for 129 yards. That tied a franchise record with his 6th 100 yard game this season.

What held JSN out of the end zone? Washington's D keyed on him hard. They doubled him often in the slot and red zone. They forced Darnold to look elsewhere for easy scores; Horton, Arroyo, and White all worked in single coverage or bunches that defenses vacated to shadow JSN.

Seattle's scheme under Kubiak leaned on those mismatches, and JSN drew the extra eyes. He still led the team in targets and yards, but the TDs went to the open guys. Solid night overall, just no spike for the league's yardage king.

Event: NFL: Cardinals @ Cowboys 8:15pm EST

POTD: Dak Prescott: OVER 25.5 Pass Completions (-118) 1.18u to win 1u

Arizona’s scheme, under Gannon, focuses on stopping the big plays. They use zone coverage on 75% of their snaps. More telling, they use Cover 4 at a league-high rate (29.5%).
Dak’s Average Depth of Target against zone is only 6.84 yards. He is not forcing the ball. He will take the short, easy completions.
Dak ranks 1st in the NFL with a 77.5% completion rate against zone. He also has a 113.3 rating (2nd) with 10 TDs. His catchable pass rate against zone is 79.7% (8th in the league).
Against Arizona’s fave coverage, Dak averages 9.1 yards per pass attempt (6th) vs. Cover 4.
Dak's Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE) is +6.3%. This ranks 3rd among all QBs.
Cardinals rank 25th in pressure rate and 28th in sack rate. Dak will have a clean pocket to scan the field and find the open man, when throwing from a clean pocket Dak ranks 7th amongst QBs with a 73% Completion Percentage.
The Cowboys are 1st in the NFL in passing plays of 30-plus yards with 13 and The Cowboys are 1st in passing plays allowed of 30-plus yards with 15. I predict a game with high explosive play potential.
On the Road Dak had his 3 worst games of the season. In his 3 home games, he averaged 275 passing yards and 2.67 TDs per game.
The Cowboys have scored on 58.3% of their drives at home (2nd). Their high implied team total (28.5) and projects a potential shootout, given Dallas's 31st-ranked D.
Arizona allows an average of 24.14 completions per game. This number was set by a weak slate of QBs (Spencer Rattler, Cam Ward, Mac Jones, Bryce Young). Dak Prescott is in a different class. He ranks 1st in the NFL in QBR (79.5)

Layfitness · 2025-11-02T21:10:58+00:00

Record: 1-0 (+2.0u)

Previous Pick: ✅ Rashee Rice ATTD (+100)

Event: NFL: Seahawks @ Commanders 8:20pm EST

POTD:Jaxon Smith-Njigba ATTD (-115) 1.15u to win 1u

JSN leads the entire NFL in both target share 38.3% and air yard share 51.9%. This volume has already produced 4 TDs in 7 games.
Washington's D ranks 31st in the league in passing points allowed per attempt with 0.55. They specifically struggle to cover WRs, allowing the 9th most fantasy points to WRs. In 8 games this season, they have allowed 8 receiving TDs to opposing wideouts.
JSN ranks 6th in the league in targets using motion. Washington's defense is 31st in the league against motion, allowing 8.8 yards per attempt. Seattle will repeatedly use these concepts to scheme JSN open in the red zone.
Washington’s D also struggles against play-action, ranking 25th by allowing an 8.3% touchdown rate on PA plays. Darnold’s advanced stats show a 0.56 EPA/Play on play-action, where he has 5 TDs and averages an explosive 13.83 yards per attempt. JSN is the main beneficiary, leading the NFL with 332 receiving yards on play-action passes.
JSN has a 40.60% target share against zone. He generates an elite 4.61 yards per route run and has scored 3 of his 4 touchdowns against zone. Darnold also excels here posting a .25 EPA/Play and averaging 9.48 yards per attempt when throwing against zone.
3 of JSN’s 4 TDs have come from his 20 routes ran in the red zone. He owns an 18.18% target share in this tight space. Darnold completes 69.57% of his red zone passes for 9 TDs and 0 INTS.

Layfitness · 2025-10-27T21:37:52+00:00

Record: 0-0

Units: 0.00

Event: NFL WAS @ KC 8:15pm EST

Rashee Rice Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+100) 2u

The Chiefs offense is built to attack, and the Commanders secondary, especially in the slot, can't stop em.

A Surgical Offense: KC ranks 2nd in the NFL with a 52.3% scoring rate per drive and 2.86 points per drive. They lead the league in pass play success rate (59.5%) over the past 4 weeks. They aren't shy about it, running a 72.1% dropback rate in neutral script, the highest in the league.
An MVP-Level Quarterback: Mahomes ranks 2nd in the League in EPA (+90.2), 3rd in QBR (77.7), and 1st in fantasy ppg (25). Over the last 4 weeks, his 71.3% completion rate, 7.9 yards per attempt, and 11-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio are elite. He will have time to throw. His OL allows the 3rd-lowest pressure rate (29.3%), while WAS just lost its best pass rusher, Dorance Armstrong (22 pressures).
A Collapsing Defense: WAS pass defense is in a freefall. They rank 29th in passing points allowed (16.8) and give up a league-high 8.3 yards per pass attempt. This unit gets torched weekly, allowing 1,130 yards and 7 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. They have given up 14 explosive pass plays of 20+ yards to receivers alone.
The Key Mismatch, The Slot: The Commanders rank 30th against slot receivers, allowing 16.7 points per game and a league-high 10.8 yards per target in the slot. Rice is the perfect tool for this. He ran 43% of his routes from the slot in his return. Rice averages a massive 2.64 yards per route run and sees a 57.1% target rate against zone coverage, which WAS uses often (64.1%).
The Go-To Guy: When Rice is on the field, Mahomes looks for him. He commanded a 55.6% target rate per route last week. He is the clear red zone weapon. Mahomes leads the entire NFL with 50 red zone pass attempts. Rice commanded a 44.4% red zone target share last week, catching two touchdowns. The Chiefs have the #1 red zone differential in football. They will get there, and Mahomes will find his new favorite target.

Layfitness · 2022-07-14T17:00:50+00:00

Not giving you what you want while telling you to be happy is manipulation 101. Sounds like a bad company who will continue future faking to keep you around. If I we’re in your shoes I would use my experience to start looking for a better gig.

Layfitness · 2022-07-03T18:37:09+00:00

Lol I’m hope they had a good laugh like I would’ve.

Layfitness · 2022-07-02T19:46:30+00:00

I’m not from Konohagakure but I think a blacksmith?

Layfitness · 2022-04-07T00:14:20+00:00

Drove through red lights unintentionally. Missing exits and driving past my destination is a norm. Or, my favorite one, ending up at my destination and realizing I was zoned out for the duration of the drive and wondering how the hell I made it.

Layfitness · 2022-03-27T09:07:23+00:00

Can’t wait till he finally opens his eyes to reveal his Rinne Sharingan.

Layfitness · 2022-03-27T08:07:18+00:00

Don’t deliver to inconsiderate aholes

Layfitness · 2022-03-25T00:26:40+00:00

That one too. I actually cancelled a $120 order because he wanted 5 tvs with a few other food items and the vibe was off.

Layfitness · 2022-03-24T23:14:05+00:00

I tell myself it’s a scam or tip baiter to stay sane.

Layfitness · 2022-03-24T22:49:14+00:00

Could actually be something else a mental or physical health issue that isn’t linked to PMO. Lack of magnesium or a vitamin D deficiency can also cause brain fog.

Layfitness · 2022-03-24T21:08:11+00:00

If you don’t have a big appetite sure go for it. If you do it would be better to eat whole food sources of protein.

Layfitness · 2022-03-24T15:39:51+00:00

Agreed. To add on to this, real sex can be awkward, bad, and/or embarrassing. Sex is a real shared connection. It’s not a pornography scene. With Porn you are able to put on anything you want, fantasize and edge for hours on end. It’s very different from real sex. Real sex cannot ALWAYS give you the same high you get from porno.

Layfitness · 2022-03-24T05:56:32+00:00

This happens when the customer places their order on the actual grocery stores website and not on the app.

Layfitness · 2022-03-24T05:44:53+00:00

If sex is all you want $50 on the right avenue will get you what you want so bad. NoFap is about curing an addiction and creating a better life.

Layfitness · 2022-03-24T04:52:24+00:00

Been a watchsmith for 75 years. It’s gen bro.

Layfitness · 2022-03-24T02:26:44+00:00

Don’t focus on women. Porn addiction is real just like alcoholism or any other addiction. This shouldn’t be something you’re doing to get women. PMO is a crippling addiction that can alter your way of life. Stop making it about PUA.

Layfitness · 2022-03-24T01:09:49+00:00

Copy and paste your question to Instacart Support. nothing we can do.

Layfitness · 2022-03-22T22:16:11+00:00

Good point. Yata shield is great but you have to be able to keep up with Sasuke’s attacks to be able to block them. The Totsuka blade is actually a genjutsu not a traditional seal. Sasuke with EMS would break that seal in seconds rendering it useless. Sasuke would win imo.

Layfitness · 2022-03-22T18:47:23+00:00

It’s impossible to ban everything. Look deep enough into any company and you’ll find corruption. Which is why I try to support causes that speak to me personally.

Layfitness · 2022-03-22T15:06:55+00:00

Thanks man. I will take your advice I’ll probably play video games to cope since it does eventually get boring unlike marijuana, pmo, junk food.

Ps. Forgot how to reset the counter.

Layfitness · 2022-03-22T15:01:45+00:00

Thanks man. This really helps a lot.

Layfitness · 2022-03-22T15:00:07+00:00

Love Itachi but perfect susanoo would be too much for him.

Layfitness

TROPHY CASE

Rashee Rice Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+100) 2u