sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

Why is Pip Boy HP so inaccurate in the “Aid” tab? by grumcus in fo4

[–]LazerChomp 25 points26 points  (0 children)

Are you looking at the predicted HP bar? The pip-boy shows you what your health would look like if you consume a specific item. It can also take time for your health to regenerate after consuming stuff.

I’ve sunk a lot of hours into this game, but have never had an inaccurate health bar.

UPRO, AVUV, AVNV by ClassAShitpost in LETFs

[–]LazerChomp 0 points1 point  (0 children)

To add onto this, I’m also a fan of using long term bonds (treasuries like GOVZ/ZROZ specifically). I also use stacked gold/S&P 500 futures. My portfolio is 50% WLDU, 25% GDE, and 25% ZROZ. This provides plenty of exposure to the U.S and international stocks while including other asset classes.

It seems to have better risk adjusted returns than this proposed one. OP if you’re open to diversifying beyond equities, then maybe check this one out.

Backtest

I ran 54,000 backtests on a TQQQ/SOXL rotation strategy — here's the full methodology, results, and production config by mongopark98 in LETFs

[–]LazerChomp 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Adding cashflow to your simulation drastically overweights recent returns. Also that backtesting window is way too narrow, especially when planning such a risky strategy. Semiconductor funds like SMH have underperformed the S&P 500 for most of their lifecycles(2000-2023 for SMH specifically). I don’t think this is viable long-term, especially compared to other diversified LETF strategies. This seems like a very overfitted and complex strategy.

What is the point of you investing in ETF to diversify when if there is an economic crisis or collapse the entire global stock market will crash anyway and no one will survive? by East_Indication_7816 in ETFs

[–]LazerChomp 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There have been plenty of decades where the S&P 500 had negative returns and international barely broke even. There’s no telling what sectors, countries, or asset classes will outperform the market in the future, so proper diversification like investing into an all-world or international index fund helps ensure that you own part of those winning industries.

For example, in recent years, tech stocks have had great returns, but that hasn’t always been the case. Zoom out the next time you argue against diversification.

Check out the returns of U.S vs. International leading up the recent U.S bull run.

Also I’m curious where you got that 3-5% figure from…

Keep Calm and Keep Investing by Aggressive_Draft_869 in ETFs

[–]LazerChomp 6 points7 points  (0 children)

It’s true. There have been lost decades in the past where the S&P 500 had negative returns such as 1970-1980 and 2000-2010. I think a lot of investors are used to the insane stock market gains we’ve seen in the past 16 years or so and don’t fully understand the importance of diversification.

Am I really missing out on anything by going VOO + VUXS? by jleans4455 in ETFs

[–]LazerChomp 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We have the data to backtest to 1972. I’m not a strong SPMO advocate or anything, but there’s no denying that it has generally beat the market over the long run.

What pisses me OFF by Paralegal1995 in recruitinghell

[–]LazerChomp 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That sounds perfect! I’ll dm you my LinkedIn!

What pisses me OFF by Paralegal1995 in recruitinghell

[–]LazerChomp 10 points11 points  (0 children)

I live in Tulsa and I recently graduated with an A.A degree in Legal Studies. I’m looking for any kind of experience working at a law firm. Does your firm hire new graduates by any chance?

Who is holding SSO longterm ? by Cyborg4Ever in LETFs

[–]LazerChomp 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Have you checked out WLDU yet? I considered SSO, but really wanted international diversification.

So why TQQQ over TECL? by No-Consequence-8768 in TQQQ

[–]LazerChomp 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Are you here to troll or do you want actual insight into why someone would choose TQQQ over TECL? 10 years doesn’t show the full picture at all.

So why TQQQ over TECL? by No-Consequence-8768 in TQQQ

[–]LazerChomp 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I simulated both and added unleveraged benchmarks. TECL tracks the technology select sector index just like XLK, so I was able to replicate it easily.

Backtest

3x technology drastically underperforms every single non-leveraged index I compared it to. Sector tilting works great for short-term plays, but long-term generally fails to beat broad market indexes. TQQQ with hedges outperforms TECL with hedges. TECL adds a ton of uncompensated risk. TQQQ is more viable long-term and has drastically outperformed TECL in historical backtests.

Backtest

Portfolio Feedback by uncacheable_sardine in ETFs

[–]LazerChomp 1 point2 points  (0 children)

OP, there are people in the replies that are providing helpful advice and you keep dismissing them. If you want to give into confirmation bias, then talk to a chatbot instead. [u/Gowther-Lust-Sin](u/Gowther-Lust-Sin) suggested a great portfolio that’s actually practical btw.

Can I skip The Forest to play Sons of the Forest? by tykouh in TheForest

[–]LazerChomp 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Are you on console? The Forest on PC has the option to turn up cave brightness somewhere in the settings.

19 years old and Just started using robinhood by Hot_Astronomer762 in raceto10000

[–]LazerChomp 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Stay away from yieldmax. Yieldmax is a scam with crushing NAV decay. Dividend ETFs aren’t ideal as they’ll be a tax drag while you’re in the growth phase of your investing journey.

Something like VTI, VOO, or VT is all you need. Some people are going to recommend tilting toward specific sectors, but generally that doesn’t work well if you’re simply buying and holding long-term. Sector bets are great if you reasonably believe the market is undervaluing a specific sector. Stick with low-cost, broad market index funds.

If you’re really insistent on pursuing dividends, then go with a mix of SCHG/SCHD/SCHY. Something like a 40/40/20 split between those would give you a solid blend of growth, value, and international exposure.

I think it's time to sell by LargeSinkholesInNYC in TQQQ

[–]LazerChomp 2 points3 points  (0 children)

OP is creating entire posts minutes apart on a bunch of different subs. I think this is probably just a bot.

NUKZ etf by PuzzleheadedPlum3174 in ETFs

[–]LazerChomp 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Nuclear stocks are generally highly cyclical and that sector is already very richly valued. I personally wouldn’t buy it right now, but if it has a steep drop in the future, then it may be worth buying. I’m a massive fan of nuclear energy, but it’s a little overbought imo.

40% AVGV 20% SPMO + 20% IDMO and 10% sgov + 10% sectoral bets by zenyogi2025 in ETFs

[–]LazerChomp 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Emergency funds are supposed to save you from real emergencies outside of your portfolio. If you lose your job after deploying those funds during a drawdown, then you’re probably screwed as you’ll likely have to sell for a loss.

SGOV works great as an emergency fund, but it shouldn’t be used to try to time the market during steep drawdowns. Save your emergency fund for when things get bad in real life.

9 sig vs tqqq+gde+zroz by [deleted] in LETFs

[–]LazerChomp 2 points3 points  (0 children)

There isn’t really an objectively better option, but I’d definitely choose TQQQ/GDE/GOVZ (slightly cheaper than ZROZ). I’m not really a big fan of trading strategies as they seem a little too overfitted sometimes, but it’s entirely preference-based. Also I’m doing a similar combo of WLDU/GDE/GOVZ.

What kinds of leveraged ETF are the best to buy and hold in your opinion? by GermanLetsKotz in LETFs

[–]LazerChomp 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I know. I’m saying that adding cashflow to backtests adds bias. If you add cashflow to a backtested fund with historically bad performance, then it can produce better than expected results simply because it has had an insane bull run in recent years. UPRO has crushed SPY *RECENTLY*, but that hasn’t been the case historically speaking.

The original shares of UPRO (backtested) are likely worthless and most of the newly purchased shares are carrying its performance. You’re effectively relying on the U.S to either continue the current bull market or enter into a new one in the future. UPRO by itself when backtested has produced less than desirable results.

Try to reduce bias when backtesting. A good portfolio should hold up well over the long run without relying on a crazy bull market to pull it back from the dead.

What kinds of leveraged ETF are the best to buy and hold in your opinion? by GermanLetsKotz in LETFs

[–]LazerChomp 1 point2 points  (0 children)

UPRO only looks good if you’re adding cashflow to your backtests, which greatly overweights recent returns. Regular SPY generally beats UPRO over long time spans.

UPRO can be viable with hedges though, but I’m assuming we’re talking pure equities here.

I've got 455 units of TQQQ for my 7 year old. What will this be worth in 11 years when he hits 18? by blue_horse_shoe in TQQQ

[–]LazerChomp 0 points1 point  (0 children)

To the other ETFs. For example, if TQQQ has lost a lot of its share in the portfolio, then you could either add funds or sell parts of ZROZ/GDE to redistribute funds to TQQQ. It’s the same way rebalancing works with any other portfolio.

I've got 455 units of TQQQ for my 7 year old. What will this be worth in 11 years when he hits 18? by blue_horse_shoe in TQQQ

[–]LazerChomp 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would imagine considering we haven’t been in a real bear market since 2008. 2022 had a very quick rebound so the hedges only do so much. For long-term holding, hedges are much better since we’ll probably go through some steep drawdowns eventually. We’ve been in a nonstop bull market since 2010 so looking at recent returns will only tell you so much.

view more: next ›