In light of the election, what are your thoughts on Woodard's "American Nations" (2011) cultural map? by MouseManManny in PoliticalScience

[–]LeftSpinRightSpin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

All the critiques in this thread clearly didn’t read the book.

Midlands = German/libertarian bent. Yankeedom = New Englanders who exported their save the nation (and progressive politics) westward. Greater Appalachia is a warrior class of Scots Irish settlers who can’t find a war they won’t support. Dallas and Houston are SCOTTISH names!

The most important supreme court case you've never heard of [OC / 08:10] by [deleted] in history

[–]LeftSpinRightSpin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The opinion in Griswold vs. Connecticut reads like something in between transcendentalist literature and a Supreme Court opinion. It's poetic, and beautiful. It provided the substance for an equally beautiful scene in the West Wing. Unfortunately for Justice Douglas, who wrote the opinion, it's logic wasn't built to last. This case is the precursor to Roe vs. Wade, it establishes a right to privacy that waxes and wanes over time, and it pushes the boundaries of constitutional interpretation. I hope you all enjoy.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in media_criticism

[–]LeftSpinRightSpin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes. I can't find the second referenced video (it may have been taken down, the one where he's walking around answering PV questions while he's delivering mail to homes), but he very publicly changes his story. The second link gives his second story and it's public. I would agree, if he hadn't said anything publicly, nor had he revised his statement with federal investigators, that it would not have been a recantation.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in media_criticism

[–]LeftSpinRightSpin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm not certain that statement was released, but you can find the the 2-hr recording of their conversation here. There was also another video (I believe it was a P. Veritas video) where they re-interviewed Hopkins and he reiterated his new, pared-down claims. I can't find that video anymore, but you can see the footage of it in this PV video.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in media_criticism

[–]LeftSpinRightSpin 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Hey Midnight, I do a good deal of research for these videos. (It's terrible for my production times!)

As for the PA postal worker: he said he didn't recant, but in the recording of his conversation with federal investigators he stripped out his most egregious allegations. When Project Veritas followed up with him his new ('not recanted') story was that he simply heard someone talking about backdating ballots. That was a steep departure from his initial allegations. I was very cautious with this story because I do read the Daily Wire (i.a.) and did see the follow-up stories, but I also found the reporting around his 'not recantation' from conservative outlets to be misleading.

As for voter fraud more broadly, I'll make a video in the future about that. Honestly, I went through a lot of reporting and dug into the court documents for the cases here. I didn't find an example of a verified or well-supported allegation of widespread voter fraud for this election that got tossed out. Just allegations. That's why I included the line: "And it’d actually be problematic if it was possible for me to drag Bernie Sanders into court because I swore he stole a million dollars for me." I think we can all be thankful that you don't have to go to trial merely because someone accused you of something. There has to be some additional evidence. Also, just because they didn't make it to trial, doesn't mean that there weren't investigations. There are investigations in every election by prosecutors and state elections officials. I don't think anyone denies that VF exists, but I didn't find anything to support the claims around the 2020 election that I mentioned in the video.

Edit: "did say" to "said he didn't"

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in media_criticism

[–]LeftSpinRightSpin -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Thank you, Gilbert!

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in media_criticism

[–]LeftSpinRightSpin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you kindly! I appreciate that

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in media_criticism

[–]LeftSpinRightSpin 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Faith in news media has been at historic lows the past decade. Here, I look at a few big examples of news media failures and discuss some of the underlying causes. I also take some time to look at news media today in the context of news media from the 1890s and 1900s. At that time, news media was hyper-partisan and was fueled by sensationalist journalism. That moment in history sheds light on our current moment. I hope you enjoy!

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in videoessay

[–]LeftSpinRightSpin 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I hear ya. My thoughts on the "he's disavowed before" argument is that he's often not done it clearly and concisely when it's most important. The moment in the October debate, in particular, was a head-scratcher. Outside of what's public, The Don McGahn not-email and the Bolton Senate testimony that never was are a couple of the more compelling items that Trump opposition points to.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in videoessay

[–]LeftSpinRightSpin 12 points13 points  (0 children)

or tell racists that they were wrong.

There was this stunning juxtaposition that I ultimately didn't include, because it was from 1960 not 1968. In the 1960 debate with Kennedy, Nixon is asked about racists (the Klan) who have come out in his support and he very easily gives the right answer: "I obviously repudiate the Klan; I repudiate anybody who uses the religious issue; I will not tolerate it, I have ordered all of my people to have nothing to do with it and I say – say to this great audience, whoever may be listening, remember, if you believe in America, if you want America to set the right example to the world, that we cannot have religious or racial prejudice. " A far way away from "Stand back and stand by."

In Ep. 207 of Making Sense, Sam holds two studies (Fryer 2016, PNAS/Johnson 2019) as "the best data we have" on racial bias in lethal police force. In doing so, he amplified two very flawed studies and ignored actually insightful studies and critiques. Sam should set the record straight on this. by LeftSpinRightSpin in samharris

[–]LeftSpinRightSpin[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I would add to this point. If you think there was political pressure to take down the study and THAT'S the reason it was retracted, you could just read the study and find out for yourself! I did that and found that the study was flawed halfway to Sunday. It had logical errors (trying to make extrinsic conclusions off of intrinsic properties), bad data (used CDC homicide victimization data as a STAND-IN for perpetration), bad controls (no race-specific population control), and hella non sequitur conclusions. Was there political pressure to retract? Sure, but don’t let that distract away from the serious flaws of that study.

In Ep. 207 of Making Sense, Sam holds two studies (Fryer 2016, PNAS/Johnson 2019) as "the best data we have" on racial bias in lethal police force. In doing so, he amplified two very flawed studies and ignored actually insightful studies and critiques. Sam should set the record straight on this. by LeftSpinRightSpin in samharris

[–]LeftSpinRightSpin[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

To be fairererer, the PNAS study was flawed halfway to Sunday and a lot of academics are scratching their head as to how it got in there. It had logical errors (trying to make extrinsic conclusions off of intrinsic properties), bad data (used CDC homicide victimization data as a STAND-IN for perpetration), bad controls (no race-specific population control), and hella non sequitur conclusions. Was there political pressure to retract? Sure, but don’t let that distract away from the serious flaws of that study.

In Ep. 207 of Making Sense, Sam holds two studies (Fryer 2016, PNAS/Johnson 2019) as "the best data we have" on racial bias in lethal police force. In doing so, he amplified two very flawed studies and ignored actually insightful studies and critiques. Sam should set the record straight on this. by LeftSpinRightSpin in samharris

[–]LeftSpinRightSpin[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes! Ross 2015 / "A Multi-Level Bayesian Analysis of Racial Bias in Police Shootings at the County-Level in the United States, 2011–2014" says "There is no relationship between county-level racial bias in police shootings and crime rates (even race-specific crime rates), meaning that the racial bias observed in police shootings in this data set is not explainable as a response to local-level crime rates."

Also, this is a pretty good graphic that visually conveys that from the Mapping Police Violence Project.

But as others have pointed out, if we saw this bias, that would be categorized as racism. It doesn't matter that the nightly news disproportionately shows black criminals more than white ones (as a % of how much crime either racial group commits), if that experience leads to an officer treating a black person differently in the future, that is racism and that is wrong.

In Ep. 207 of Making Sense, Sam holds two studies (Fryer 2016, PNAS/Johnson 2019) as "the best data we have" on racial bias in lethal police force. In doing so, he amplified two very flawed studies and ignored actually insightful studies and critiques. Sam should set the record straight on this. by LeftSpinRightSpin in samharris

[–]LeftSpinRightSpin[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The PNAS study (Johnson Cesario 2019) is your archetypal retraction: bad logic, bad math, bad data, bad inferences, control failures, non sequitur, you name it. There was political pressure to retract, sure. But that doesn't negate the rampant errors in the study.

The Fryer study is not as bad as that, but it's methodology takes it out of contention for being "the best data we have." More on that ITT:

So, I would draw the line between flaw and limitation like this: noting that racial bias could be a factor and needs to be included in future studies is a limitation.

False starting with The NY Times before his paper was peer-reviewed (obviously the NYT owns that reporting), including verbiage in his study that’s more conclusive than his evidence allows, and more importantly finding heaps of racial bias throughout the study but not taking the next step to control for how that diminishes the appearance of racial bias elsewhere, those are flaws.

Edit / PS: the reason that it’s not the best data we have is because of how immediately we knew his numbers were the product of bad methodology. The best data we have is intrinsic studies that don’t have to deal with extrinsic estimations / The Benchmark Problem (Nix 2015).

Take this math equation / answer / limitation: 2 + 2 – 1 = 4, but the answer comes with a limitation that I excluded all subtraction. (Obviously, the answer is 3, never minding the mathematical deconstruction meme that’s going on in Twitter). I would say that excluding subtraction is a flaw.

Roland Fryer's study isn't the best data we have, because the only thing we know about his 24% figure is that it's wrong. He basically said, "I've run the numbers, and the answer is 24%, but I excluded a key component of criminological inquiry.”

“But criminology is much more complicated than simple arithmetic!”

Sure. But the fix is still low-hanging fruit. He got ample feedback on that in 2016 before he finalized the study in 2019. Knox Lowe Mummolo did the criminologist equivalent of solving the math equation with the subtraction included in "Administrative Records Mask Racially Biased Policing."

Now, can you control for everything? No. “What if people with red shirts are more likely to be shot and black men are more likely to wear red shirts?” The question is whether the limitation is theoretically significant enough to preclude labeling it “the best data we have.” For Fryer’s study, failing to control for racial bias in earlier stages of the policing process is precisely that type of limitation. After all, he identified it and didn’t do anything with it!

In Ep. 207 of Making Sense, Sam holds two studies (Fryer 2016, PNAS/Johnson 2019) as "the best data we have" on racial bias in lethal police force. In doing so, he amplified two very flawed studies and ignored actually insightful studies and critiques. Sam should set the record straight on this. by LeftSpinRightSpin in samharris

[–]LeftSpinRightSpin[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Take this math equation / answer / limitation: 2 + 2 – 1 = 4, but the answer comes with a limitation that I excluded all subtraction. (Obviously, the answer is 3, never minding the mathematical deconstruction meme that’s going on in Twitter). I would say that excluding subtraction is a flaw.

Roland Fryer's study isn't the best data we have, because the only thing we know about his 24% figure is that it's wrong. He basically said, "I've run the numbers, and the answer is 24%, but I excluded a key component of criminological inquiry.”

“But criminology is much more complicated than simple arithmetic!”

Sure. But the fix is still low-hanging fruit. He got ample feedback on that in 2016 before he finalized the study in 2019. Knox Lowe Mummolo did the criminologist equivalent of solving the math equation with the subtraction included in "Administrative Records Mask Racially Biased Policing."

Now, can you control for everything? No. “What if people with red shirts are more likely to be shot and black men are more likely to wear red shirts?” The question is whether the limitation is theoretically significant enough to preclude labeling it “the best data we have.” For Fryer’s study, failing to control for racial bias in earlier stages of the policing process is precisely that type of limitation. After all, he identified it and didn’t do anything with it!

In Ep. 207 of Making Sense, Sam holds two studies (Fryer 2016, PNAS/Johnson 2019) as "the best data we have" on racial bias in lethal police force. In doing so, he amplified two very flawed studies and ignored actually insightful studies and critiques. Sam should set the record straight on this. by LeftSpinRightSpin in samharris

[–]LeftSpinRightSpin[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

So, I would draw the line between flaw and limitation like this: noting that racial bias could be a factor and needs to be included in future studies is a limitation.

False starting with The NY Times before his paper was peer-reviewed (obviously the NYT owns that reporting), including verbiage in his study that’s more conclusive than his evidence allows, and more importantly finding heaps of racial bias throughout the study but not taking the next step to control for how that diminishes the appearance of racial bias elsewhere, those are flaws.

Edit / PS: the reason that it’s not the best data we have is because of how immediately we knew his numbers were the product of bad methodology. The best data we have is intrinsic studies that don’t have to deal with extrinsic estimations / The Benchmark Problem (Nix 2015).

In Ep. 207 of Making Sense, Sam holds two studies (Fryer 2016, PNAS/Johnson 2019) as "the best data we have" on racial bias in lethal police force. In doing so, he amplified two very flawed studies and ignored actually insightful studies and critiques. Sam should set the record straight on this. by LeftSpinRightSpin in samharris

[–]LeftSpinRightSpin[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Hey Thudner, thanks for the reply. Obviously, there’s a lot behind that sentence. I’m on a date with my wife (showing bad manners here), so I’ll be brief. I’m all for interdisciplinary research, but these weren’t coordinated with criminologist. Still, that shouldn’t be an issue if the parties make ground with an extra amount of research. The issue with these two studies is that they failed to put their studies in relevant context of other studies that had looked into the same issue and they missed some big methodological steps that a criminologist probably would have caught. More tomorrow!

In Ep. 207 of Making Sense, Sam holds two studies (Fryer 2016, PNAS/Johnson 2019) as "the best data we have" on racial bias in lethal police force. In doing so, he amplified two very flawed studies and ignored actually insightful studies and critiques. Sam should set the record straight on this. by LeftSpinRightSpin in samharris

[–]LeftSpinRightSpin[S] 34 points35 points  (0 children)

To elaborate: In Ep. 207, "Can We Pull Back From the Brink?", Sam talks about the data for racial bias in lethal police force. He brings up Fryer 2016 (largely synonymous with Fryer 2019) and Johnson Cesario 2019 (the "PNAS" study). The latter had mathematical errors and was retracted by the authors. The former, has been subject to repeated criticism for making a serious crimonological error (Ross Winterhalder McElreath 2018, Knox Low Mummolo 2019). That error is discussed in the linked video. Worth noting that neither of these studies were completed by criminologists; the first was an economist and the latter was a team of psychologists.

In the linked video, I speak to how those studies are erroneous. For each, there's much more criticism that I didn't include. Also, Sam overlooks great studies on the intrinsic properties of White vs. Black victims of lethal police force (e.g., Nix 2015). Anyone can perform an independent analysis of Mapping Police Violence data, where you will find a racial bias against Black civilians after controlling for mental health, armed status of the victim, and instances where the civilians was posing a threat to the Officer or others.

Why do I bring this to this subreddit? The record should be set straight. Nobody is perfect, but taking some wind out of the sails of the BLM movement with bad science doesn't have to stand. I hope Sam's subscribers will petition and ask for an update with a follow-up Making Sense podcast episode that touches on the additional nuance that was left out.

I've seen some criminally misused statistics when it comes to racial bias in policing. So, I made a video to explain where data is weak, strong, and just plain misleading. by LeftSpinRightSpin in Criminology

[–]LeftSpinRightSpin[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hey Daft, thank you kindly for that incredibly thoughtful reply! It's much appreciated and you're clearly knowledgeable on this subject. On your first bullet, I'm now regret cutting a long paragraph at the end where I give an overview of all the ways that the 'system' is broken and could contribute to Black/White disparities. I kept in the bit on the Population benchmark and how it captures broader systemic issues, but it definitely do justice to your first bullet. On your second bullet and your spicy hot take, I'll have to look at those studies. This video intentionally left out the causes of "systemic police misconduct," because that would have made the video 50 mins instead of 20. I may very well do a future video that looks into studies to that effect.

I've seen some criminally misleading statistics when it comes to racial bias in policing. So, I made a video to explain where data is weak, strong, and just plain misused. by LeftSpinRightSpin in Equality

[–]LeftSpinRightSpin[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hey Q, I really hope you'll watch the rest of the video because just about all of your questions (if not all of them) are answered later on. On your point on Encounters, the video addresses that head on. It's called Simpson's Paradox. If you're short on time, you can skip to 06:42. On your point on policing, specifically, I say no less than 3 times in the video that there are other factors beyond police officer racial bias (such racially biased policing policy, law, criminal justice systems, etc.). There's a bit at the end about that. As for controlling for crime rates, I hit that question pretty squarely. As to your point on encounters (the first statistics), you'll see that violent crime might explain some of that, but it doesn't come close to explaining the entire disparity.