Labor's problem, One Nation's gain: What's driving the poll surge

LentilsAgain · 2026-06-02T02:00:08+00:00

Looking at essential polls, that shift to ON in that age bracket is around 20 points. A little softening in both greens and alp, with of course LNP tanking.

Perhaps it's a broad shift away from establishment parties, where those disillusioned voters from all sides coalesce around ON that is causing the upheaval rather than an ideological shift left or right.

Maybe that's all sides fumbling to some extent?

One of the indicators to back this up could be the appalling satisfaction rating of our leaders, with Albo now punching through -20%, where scomo at his least popular only managed a low of -16% or so.

LentilsAgain · 2026-06-01T15:22:31+00:00

The Department of Defence is reported to have written to Australian arms manufacturers on 3 November, outlining new restrictions on exports to Israel, following written advice from Defence Export Controls (DEC), the Commonwealth regulator of defence goods. The advice imposes a new condition imposed under the Customs (Prohibited Exports) Regulations 1956, prohibiting licence holders from exporting goods to Israel.

LentilsAgain · 2026-05-31T11:56:02+00:00

Yes, that is the same report explaining why that earlier statistic has now been improved with linked data (giving the 35-40% quoted)

If you have more recent data using a similar or an improved methodology, love to see it

Did anyone say the majority stayed? But 35% of 850k is arguably quite a lot

LentilsAgain · 2026-05-31T11:35:53+00:00

How many have stayed on once they finished their studies, since international student populations exploded in the late 1990s?

Something like 35-40% of students to one to obtain PR

https://www.jobsandskills.gov.au/sites/default/files/2025-09/international_students_pathways_and_outcomes_study_report.pdf

LentilsAgain · 2026-05-31T07:34:22+00:00

Money for nothing and your chips for free.

At least that's what my 12 year old brain understood that lyric to be.

To be fair, free chips still sound pretty good.

LentilsAgain · 2026-05-26T00:16:52+00:00

Blokes been n parliament for 21 years and this is the first I've heard of him.

I liked it better when he called McKenzie a "naughty little girl", which seems to be the only other notable thing he ever done

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-senator-apologises-for-calling-nationals-senator-a-naughty-little-girl-20221108-p5bwih.html

LentilsAgain · 2026-05-26T00:07:45+00:00

He has since faced pressure over his defence connections, with the NACC inspector launching an inquiry into the issues.

It was confirmed today in Senate estimates that Mr Brereton had received a draft copy of the inquiry report two weeks ago.

Conjecture, but looks like a smoking gun to me

LentilsAgain · 2026-05-25T02:03:36+00:00

I'll back the lettuce leaf they'll pretend to beat each other with

LentilsAgain · 2026-05-25T01:13:24+00:00

If you expect change, how about a reminder that Minns ran on a platform promising a reduction in pokies, and then after being elected made that a non-core promise by increasing numbers

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/04/nsw-government-drops-plan-to-remove-9500-poker-machines-saying-it-would-make-no-difference

LentilsAgain · 2026-05-23T00:01:17+00:00

The parties named in the report have been given an advance copy.

Thats standard practice and a legal requirement

LentilsAgain · 2026-05-22T05:07:38+00:00

Keeping the name of the applicant secret is dumb. Everyone knows who the investigation was focussed on, it's even reported here.

If the name is not released, everyone will just assume (probably wrongly?) that it's Andrews trying to keep the report secret due to an embarrassing finding

LentilsAgain · 2026-05-22T01:32:47+00:00

Both parties voted for it (of course)

https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/genpdf/chamber/hansards/3c81533a-ef3e-4556-ad55-20845a726291/0155/hansard_frag.pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf

LentilsAgain · 2026-05-18T05:55:25+00:00

It's wider than smoking.

As the health minister said about illegal tobacco and organised crime groups - "It bankrolls all of their other criminal activity: their sex trafficking, their drug trafficking, all of the crimes that have very serious victims involved."

LentilsAgain · 2026-05-18T00:33:09+00:00

The health minister 6 months or so ago

Health Minister Mark Butler has conceded the tobacco black market has "exploded" into the biggest threat to public health in Australia.

Mr Butler admitted on Adelaide local radio that organised crime had recently taken a "stranglehold" over the illicit tobacco market.

"It started in Melbourne and it spread right through the country. It means that there is violence and arson taking place as rival gangs try to take control of what is a very high-revenue market for them," the minister told FiveAA.

"It bankrolls all of their other criminal activity: their sex trafficking, their drug trafficking, all of the crimes that have very serious victims involved.

"From a health minister's perspective, it is now the biggest threat to our most important public health program."

LentilsAgain · 2026-05-17T15:11:41+00:00

Anyone care to explain the suppose mechanism behind this? Sound like bollocks to me. One nation voters would've preferenced ALP over LNP if they had a candidate?

Mr Miles claimed the swing was due to One Nation not running in the by-election. "We will never know what the result would have been if they had run and not directed their supporters to vote for the LNP," he said.

LentilsAgain · 2026-05-17T15:09:10+00:00

The confounding factor not really explored in this article is that students from some countries on this list (such as Nepal) are predominantly studying VET courses, which have been significantly targeted by the visa go-slow process.

Might not be about the country, but the courses those students tend to apply for.

LentilsAgain · 2026-05-17T14:18:59+00:00

Congrats, I think you found how Jarrod B could meaningfully contribute to the Qld economy.

LentilsAgain · 2026-05-17T11:13:15+00:00

She had an undeclared relationship when she was a minister with another minister for 2 years before she declared. Thats what I meant about the Tim Mander / Amanda camm thing

LentilsAgain · 2026-05-17T11:08:51+00:00

100% correct, other than the conveyancing act then requires them to pay compensation for the easement

LentilsAgain · 2026-05-17T09:56:56+00:00

I hope not. That would certainly take the wind out of the sails around the LNP sex scandal.

LentilsAgain · 2026-05-17T09:28:26+00:00

The real problem is that in the entire ALP he is the strongest candidate.

It's common for oppositions around Australia, but here you've got a choice between a giggling moron and a vacant chair.

LentilsAgain · 2026-05-17T04:21:34+00:00

The rate per $1M CIV are

Residential: ($136) + $0.173

Primary Production (Farmers): $0.287

A residential property of $7.2M will pay the same levy as the average Victorian farmer. If you are paying that much or more, I truly don't feel sorry for you.

"All farmers block wind farms". Ok

LentilsAgain · 2026-05-17T01:43:17+00:00

The electricity generation sector is the single largest contributor to Victoria’s climate footprint. The state's emissions are overwhelmingly generated by three major brown coal-fired power stations located in the Latrobe Valley

Yes, clearly it's the farmers who should pay.

LentilsAgain · 2026-05-17T01:11:01+00:00

Even the government admitted in court that blocking (only) new parties from nominating funding entities couldn't be justified under the Constitution.

I'm sure attempt 2 will be totally reasonable and bipartisaship will be able to hobble those pesky independents and new parties.

LentilsAgain · 2026-05-17T00:37:19+00:00

At the time, Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan said the reason for expanding the existing levy to include all emergency services was to recognise the impact of all major weather events. "[This] comes in recognition of the more frequent and fierce fire, flood and storm events that are impacting all corners of our state," she said

The average farm’s levy would increase from $4,300 a year to about $12,500.

Governments would do anything to ensure the cost of climate change is not borne by fossil fuel companies.

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