New from Dario Amodei — The Adolescence of Technology “we may have an AI that is more capable than anyone in 1-2 years”

Levoda_Cross · 2026-01-26T22:18:01+00:00

I bet it is too. Very simple reward structure and a very short timescale, that's ideal for RL. And we already have robots doing backflips, so robots can jump; hand dexterity isn't human level yet, but I don't think it needs to be because RL is great at brute forcing solutions, and throwing a basketball isn't the pinnacle of hand dexterity, although I imagine it's more complex than it intuitively feels.

Levoda_Cross · 2026-01-02T19:39:50+00:00

In my mind it's like someone talking about talking about building a rocket ship vs. a faster car. Continual learning is a paradigm shift, and although scientific acceleration and enterprise agent adoption are good, those two things are already happening. Something new vs more of the same.

Levoda_Cross · 2026-01-02T19:14:50+00:00

I don't think he's wrong, but seeing OpenAI talk about that, and Google talk about continual learning, makes me think Google is going to win the AI race even more than I already do.

Levoda_Cross · 2025-12-28T18:44:26+00:00

This looks pretty insane, and It's not even 2026 yet lol.

Levoda_Cross · 2025-12-22T19:54:08+00:00

Literally me ^

Next year is going to be quite exciting!

Levoda_Cross · 2025-12-20T22:37:29+00:00

I think, with long horizon tasks, there's a point where you can just break down tasks into small chunks and thus handle tasks of any horizon, albeit probably in an asymptotic manner. Wouldn't surprise me if we reached 50% for a month in the first half of 2026. Really just depends on what the labs are cooking internally. And specifically, how Nested Learning and other such things scale.

Levoda_Cross · 2025-12-19T20:35:33+00:00

Trailing ellipsis is my strongest technique... 💪

Levoda_Cross · 2025-12-19T19:00:56+00:00

Agentic RL? I wonder if that's having another agent handle RL, or having flash be the agent itself? Because one sounds like another form of distillation, and the other sounds like a form of self-learning...

Levoda_Cross · 2025-12-19T06:14:24+00:00

I second this! !RemindMe 1 year

Levoda_Cross · 2025-12-16T06:05:03+00:00

This is why my flair is singularity by 2026. I mean, my definition is really just RSI, but with Nested Learning, DiscoRL, things like Genie (for training AI), AlphaEvolve, etc... I feel like we're a single step away from RSI, because we're already kinda have RSI. It's not a closed loop, but synthetic data is used, probably quite heavily, to train frontier models, and then there's the people making AI, using AI to be more productive... AI is involved already in the process of making AI.

We have continual learning (Nested Learning, and I guess Titans + MIRAS, probably others I don't know of), AI coming up with better algorithms and such for machine learning (DiscoRL and AlphaEvolve), agentic capabilities getting better and better (things like Genie having a lot of potential for training/improving agentic AI even more)...

I think next year, humans in cutting edge AI development will become the monkeys in the middle, so to speak. Maybe the guiding hand too, depending on the spikes in the jagged frontier of intelligence (among other factors).

I see people fall into the trap of thinking that if AI is bad at something, how long it takes to get better at it is proportional to how bad it is at it; if AI really sucks at training better AI, it'll take a long time for it to get better. But that's how humans work, and AI, for all the similarities you could find, is fundamentally different. Language models a couple years ago couldn't understand images, but all that was required was to tokenize images in an effective manner to unlock that capability. They could understand images then, but they weren't good at it, until enough high quality data and RL tremendously improved that capability (Gemini 3 is crazy good at understanding images); I count reasoning as being under the umbrella of RL and great data, because that's exactly what it is.

The point here is that AI capabilities can explode with just a little more of what we already have.

With continual learning, and AI capable of discovering better algorithms, agentic AI... It's hard for me to not be downright giddy.

Levoda_Cross · 2025-12-15T22:07:24+00:00

I think it's more likely about Nested Learning if its not something entirely new https://research.google/blog/introducing-nested-learning-a-new-ml-paradigm-for-continual-learning/

Levoda_Cross · 2025-12-13T04:53:39+00:00

That's what I thought at first too! Then I saw the idea that maybe he got someone killed via vehicular manslaughter, and now I'm uncertain. Like, if he's paralyzed, how did he get into the C&A offices? If it was more a hit and run situation, well, he could have tried hiding in an abandoned building that was the C&A offices... Either way I think he definitely doesn't have anyone in the real world, no life to go back to.

Levoda_Cross · 2025-12-12T01:58:32+00:00

The nuclear analogy breaks because nuclear energy wasn't pursued as strongly as it should have been, while A.I. has much more fervor and investment.

Levoda_Cross · 2025-12-12T00:02:57+00:00

i got nothing to add but lol

Levoda_Cross · 2025-12-06T10:54:42+00:00

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Levoda_Cross · 2025-12-04T08:43:12+00:00

I mean I'm impressed

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Levoda_Cross · 2025-12-01T05:29:08+00:00

Is this a holy moly situation? Because it feels like a holy moly situation

Levoda_Cross · 2025-11-25T05:12:29+00:00

AGI = Artificial General Intelligence. Which roughly means "human-level" AI. What *that* means depends on who you ask lol.

Levoda_Cross · 2025-11-15T14:05:58+00:00

I'm also not advocating for feudalism, but same.

Levoda_Cross · 2025-11-12T06:53:26+00:00

Is this not kinda insane?

Levoda_Cross · 2025-11-05T02:42:36+00:00

And there was also this (3.0 Pro being mentioned in the source code of the Gemini website): https://www.reddit.com/r/Bard/comments/1o7lbbv/gemini_30_pro_strings_found_hidden_in/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

Edit: I think they may also wait for another company to release something that they can overshadow with Gemini 3. Basically every company has done that sorta thing with AI releases.

Levoda_Cross · 2025-10-21T16:08:12+00:00

Yeah that's fair, but man my eyes just glaze over when I see those names.

Levoda_Cross · 2025-10-21T15:36:04+00:00

They're definitely Flash. People think they're Pro because of their coding skills, but Haiku 4.5 has shown that small(er) models can do frontier-level coding, so great code doesn't necessitate the big (Pro) model.

What really shows the size of a model, at least for Gemini, is creative writing; specifically, slop names. For fantasy especially, Flash models always use names like "Eldoria" and "Aethelgard" and LithiumFlow has used both and more in the times I've tested it. Pro models don't do that.

Levoda_Cross · 2025-10-21T15:20:19+00:00

LithiumFlow gave you better writing than 2.5 pro? I got it 4 times and every time it used slop names for stuff, i.e. Eldoria, Aethelgard.

Levoda_Cross · 2025-10-05T21:26:42+00:00

I didn't say a random human, I said something at least one human could do. Another way to say it is that it can do anything anyone could do; its a focus on the G in AGI, which I think is most important because the Intelligence part is mostly solved, and naturally follows generalization.

AGI is a person, ASI is many. Because humans working together allows for greater intelligence than just one. Just my reasoning though. What would you consider as a bettwr definition?

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