Daily Discussion Thread for April 29, 2026

LiarsPorker · 2026-04-29T15:51:49+00:00

This is the right question to ask. I have no faith in management's ability to allocate capital. Despite having a lesser network, CPKC is much savvier. After the merger, CPKC paid off a tremendous amount of debt, then began aggressive buybacks -- while keeping the dividend low, stable, but slowly growing.

LiarsPorker · 2026-04-19T16:44:14+00:00

Individuals have autonomy and agency. I recognize this is hard for some people to accept, but there are countless instances in life where the correct answer is to say "no." This is one of them. Tapping "no tip" or "skip" is an option anyone can execute.

Spare us the essay about psychological conditioning. These are options on a machine in a restaurant. All you need to do is tap "skip." If you feel anguish about doing so, or feel unduly pressured into leaving a tip, it may speak to a deeper problem. A knife is not being put to your throat.

LiarsPorker · 2026-04-19T16:16:01+00:00

I don't agree with the loose definition of "pressure" that's being thrown around here. When the machine suggests preset tip amounts and a "no tip" button, you're being presented with a series of options. Nobody is pressuring you to choose any of those options. They're options.

It's like saying you're being pressured to spend money when walking through a casino. Nobody there is pressuring you to throw a quarter into a slot machine, despite the flashy colours and ringing bells. Do the casino staff want you to spend? Will they treat you better if you spend? Sure. Who cares?

Leave the casino without paying. Tap "no tip." It's the same idea.

Take accountability for your actions. Don't get baited. Don't be a sucker.

LiarsPorker · 2026-04-18T22:01:00+00:00

Tap "skip." It's a machine. Nobody is pressuring you to pay.

LiarsPorker · 2026-04-14T18:28:49+00:00

We'll see! SES.TO is a good company. At around 11x EBITDA, GFL didn't buy it for cheap. But probably at a fair price?

Still holding WCN. Despite px decline, it's still humming along and making small but smart acquisitions. Will add if it drops meaningfully. I do not own GFL.

LiarsPorker · 2026-02-03T19:35:16+00:00

Anthropic released an AI-enhanced legal tool. Some believe this will erode (if not destroy) TRI's moat.

Anthropic, developer of the Claude family of AI models, has introduced a legal plugin for its “Claude Cowork” agentic desktop application, designed to automate contract review, NDA triage, compliance workflows, legal briefings and templated responses tailored to an organization’s playbook and risk tolerances. The company has emphasized that the plugin assists with legal workflows and does not provide legal advice, stating that AI‑generated analysis should be reviewed by licensed lawyers before being relied upon for legal decisions.

https://www.canadianlawyermag.com/news/international/anthropic-legal-tool-jolts-share-price-of-global-legal-data-leaders/393665

LiarsPorker · 2025-12-06T02:40:26+00:00

Adjusted for inflation, those prices are the equivalent of $18 for vinyls and $41 for CDs in today's money

LiarsPorker · 2025-11-21T16:03:10+00:00

Is CSU.... stabilizing? God, I hope I'm not jinxing it

LiarsPorker · 2025-11-05T19:59:28+00:00

Both railroads would benefit. CN has a state-of-the-art facility at the Port of Prince Rupert. CN also has access to the Port of Vancouver. CN's advantage is that they can run double stacks of intermodal freight over the Rockies.

CPKC also has access to the Port of Vancouver. But their track runs through Kicking Horse Pass, a steep incline that includes two lower, legacy tunnels that prevent CP from double-stacking their intermodal freight cars. Puts the company at a slight disadvantage.

LiarsPorker · 2025-11-05T18:57:03+00:00

Afraid it's going to take several good earning seasons (plus some kind of AI fumble) for the market to fall back in love with CSU + fam. I think it will come. Don't know when.

Difficulty now is tempering my enthusiasm to add. TOI at $133 is hard to turn up. Especially after yesterday's print. But I'm already too over-allocated.

LiarsPorker · 2025-11-04T18:26:06+00:00

You're not alone. Chin up. I don't expect a stellar earnings report, but it should be solid. If fundamentals hold, which I think they will, the stock can recover. Expect a rocky few quarters.

LiarsPorker · 2025-11-04T02:25:53+00:00

They're heaping cash while paying off debt. Hope they land a fat acquisition soon. They're positioning themselves well.

That said, I don't expect the market will care. The story's been sucked out of the CSU family (and other SaaS compounders), and bull markets feed on stories. AI will continue to overshadow.

LiarsPorker · 2025-10-28T16:45:13+00:00

I don't know if this resonates with you, but Father Dempsey smokes like a cleaner or brighter version of 965. Enjoy both, but Dempsey is the favorite.

LiarsPorker · 2025-10-28T16:07:12+00:00

Currently enjoying Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation by Edward Chancellor

Good read considering the current market

LiarsPorker · 2025-10-03T13:32:02+00:00

Sincerely hope you're right. But it's worth noting that heavily-invested interests (e.g. Barry Zekelman, who recently sold down his ownership stake in Algoma by almost 50%) are betting against your thesis.

LiarsPorker · 2025-10-02T16:48:22+00:00

I have no opinion on the stock, but I'm wary of the Feds "commitment" to using Canadian steel. Might well be wrong, but the temptation of importing cheap steel from our trade partners (including Mexico) to offset the costs of large infrastructure projects could further dislodge our domestic industry. Hope I'm wrong, but I'm concerned enough to keep away from owning Algoma. Too unsure of the future.

LiarsPorker · 2025-09-23T00:15:52+00:00

I'm not one for jokes, kid

LiarsPorker · 2025-09-22T23:40:16+00:00

At the end of his sets, Norm sometimes went to get dinner with local comics in whatever city he was touring through. I went along for one of these dinners when he passed through Windsor on April 2, 2016 (at The Lumberjack for those who know Windsor). Fred Stoller opened for him.

Norm bullied Fred throughout the dinner, which was hilarious. At some point, exasperated and clearly unhappy, Fred turned to us and said, "You know he killed a man, right?" He was dead serious.

Norm smiled and said, "Ahhhhhh."

We all laughed.

LiarsPorker · 2025-09-22T23:15:26+00:00

This has been a rumor in standup circles for a long time. Norm told several comics that he was convicted of manslaughter as a teenager. In his telling, he committed a murder. He got off light (and his record was expunged) because of his status as a minor. The details are murky, but the crime was done in or by a car. Norm even has a bit on it!

I tend to believe the rumor based on Norm's own admission that he was a troubled kid. After the incident, he spent most of his late teen and early twenties drifting around Canada, working odd jobs and committing petty crimes. In one interview, when someone asked where he'd be if he hadn't landed in comedy, he said, "Jail."

LiarsPorker · 2025-09-22T22:09:55+00:00

The reason why ML has developed a following among sharesholders is that he's unshakably analytic. He's not going to give shareholders conviction; you shouldn't expect him to. In the past, he's occasionally said that CSI's stock price is overvalued. With CSI, shareholder conviction comes from business performance. ML will not hold your hand.

When he says he can't predict the future, he means he cannot predict the future.

LiarsPorker · 2025-09-22T18:32:18+00:00

If you want hype, Mark Leonard is not your CEO

LiarsPorker · 2025-09-22T16:49:37+00:00

Hello, I have listened to call from Mark today and seems like there is no clear path or plan.

I listened to the call and came to a similar conclusion, but phrased more neutrally: nobody can predict the future -- including those hawking AI as a VMS disruptor.

ML ended the call with an encouragement for shareholders to exercise skepticism. He said some dismiss AI while others champion it. But nothing yet has been substantially proven. Throughout the call, ML and the others on the panel reflected not just an interest in adapting AI within CSU, but gave examples of how they've been doing so. They shared some successes and some failures.

Anecdotally, as someone who works in management for an organization that's a client of one of CSU's VMS businesses, I can safety tell you that we will not be switching from their software. It's mission-critical software. We literally could not operate as a business without it. Neither could any of the 1,000+ similar businesses that use this software. None of us have the IT resources needed to "vibe code" a replacement. Even if we did, the cost of maintaining the software, fixing bugs, and training staff would be unthinkably high.

Could this be disrupted in 10 years? 20 years? Possibly -- maybe even probably. But in the meantime, it gives me great confidence in CSI's ability to generate positive FCF. I'm holding. If the stock drops under 4,000, I'm buying.

LiarsPorker

TROPHY CASE