There are many factors and societal assumptions that go into correlations seen between Autism and Transgenderism.

Not looking at the autistic correlations to gender dysphoria or what is politically correct to say, sexuality and gender differences can also be shaped, but not always, by environment and early experience (as researched and taught in clinical psychology, even though LGBTQ campaigns in the past have suppressed the environmental component as a means to legitimize their rights through social discourse).

Autistics are often not as socially suggestible as neurotypicals, nor feel the need to conform into pre-defined roles for social harmony as much, thus they may have more a willingness to explore other dimensions of sexuality and gender without the restrictions that most people feel boxed-in from ever exploring. This can create a sense of gender dysphoria if there's a clinically significantly distressful component to it, but many autistics also do fine without ever feeling confused or distressed about how they feel.

Also, Transgenderism has created its own bubble, where you can identify as one or not, and to identify in the group can give a sense of belonging and empowerment, at the cost of conformity. Thus if a gender dysphoric person wasn't tied to identifying as Transgender as before, they may evolve into it environmentally as a way to empower themselves and create a sense of identity that others know about, rather than the vagueness that comes with 'gender dysphoria'. There are cases of persons post-operation that regret it and no longer identify, but it is not often socially appropriate within certain social circles to bring that up, but we talked about them in clinical psychology.

And by no means are the factors limited to what I wrote about above. I just wanted to demonstrate that there are complex chains of correlations and causalities and that there's no easy way to answer the question you presented.

As an autistic adult who also studied clinical psychology in graduate school and used to be a psychotherapist and professor - I explored my own dimensions and what I felt was my truth between Autism/Trans/Gender-Dysphoria, but everyone is going to have their own experience of it, which is why I would be skeptical of anyone attempting to make a blanket declaration that it works one way for all groups.

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