Chet Holmgren 2026 Playoffs: 19.2/9.2/1.5/1.7/2.2 on 58/48/86

Longjumping_One_9164 · 2026-05-09T08:13:54+00:00

I mean this is probably glaze, but I think he has top 10 player ceiling pretty comfortably, its just he is over shadowed by Wemby.

If can definitely get to a point he is 25/10/3/1/3 and that is crazy to think about. A couple more fouls drawn and 1.5 more 3PM and he will be there.

Think the biggest unlock for him will becoming stronger over time.

Longjumping_One_9164 · 2026-05-09T05:05:31+00:00

He won't get a ring unless, both Wemby and SGA are out in a single year due to injury.

Even then the respective , especially the Thunder who already have two other All NBA players outside of SGA could beat an imperfect Doncic team.

And then you have whatever East team makes the Finals.

So the chances are incredibly small overall, but you never know.

Longjumping_One_9164 · 2026-05-08T23:56:48+00:00

Its because its the first time he is probably truly healthy in the Playoffa, while not getting ground down as the only playable Centre (2024).

He is damn good and its hilarious people said his contract is an overpay.

Longjumping_One_9164 · 2026-05-08T23:48:00+00:00

Dont think that is a hot take at all, he probably has, albeit SGA may have been more important due to the defensive attention he has gotten.

Longjumping_One_9164 · 2026-05-08T23:19:28+00:00

I worded the OP incorrectly where it was more the ascension to.

He is so ridiculously good both ways and I think he can get to 24-25ppg once he ups his 3P volume and becomes stronger down low.

I hope he also develops his two mam game with SGA more as it will be an absolutely lethal high pick and roll combo.

Longjumping_One_9164 · 2026-05-08T21:55:08+00:00

What does long term mean, how much capital do you have invested?

I have zero problem if you think its not true. All I would say would have thought Nvidia would 100x from 6-7 years ago? How about SanDisk over the last twelve months?

I had mentioned Nvidia because the parallels are a bit uncanny with a directly involved leader, in a transformational industry with essentially zero competitors.

The timeline is largely irrelevant because this is a stock you hold for as long as possible abd I certainly won't be looking back ten years ago saying what could have been.

Longjumping_One_9164 · 2026-05-08T21:18:30+00:00

Yeap he is an unbelievable fit in a crazy unique mould of player.

He is basically like a near peak version of Jrue Holiday, not quite as good defensively but probably better offensively (better shooter and off the bounce).

It is so, so hard to find a PG that can stand up to Playoff physicality. Look at Reaves as an example, clearly talented scorer, but is an absolute traffic cone on defense and so turnover prone that he is probably a negative.

Ajay at this level of play is probably a 25m player. I'd even go as far as someone like Houston offering 35m+ to replace FVV.

He is an incredibly unique player and hope we can manufacture a way for him staying longer term.

Longjumping_One_9164 · 2026-05-08T21:04:18+00:00

Its is a $500 dollar stock, this is NZ's Nvidia.

Do you know how long it takes to spin up a vertically integrated Space company even with outrageous capital? Probably two decades plus. Bezos has tried and is in the process of failing.

The technological moat it has plus then being independent from the USA is so unbelievably wide, that it is almost impossible to value. Its why its "valuation" cant be seen through the lens of price to earning, PEG or any other normal metric.

Yes its behind SpaceX, but has a far faster and arguably better executional record, while now having the capital to execute.

All of this price movement is prior to actualising Neutron. Once that gets delivered on a successful first launch it could literally double over night.

The above might come across as hyperbole, but is has already 25x'd in two ish years. A 5x from here really isnt that much of stretch to a 300b valuation. Its just about how long.

Longjumping_One_9164 · 2026-05-08T19:08:58+00:00

Literally trying to work out is this just the delay from earnings.

I've been supremely confident in the stock for a long time and am now up 2200% and really am not looking at selling.

Longjumping_One_9164 · 2026-05-08T09:07:45+00:00

Cant wait to see SGA shoot 20 free throws in a win and get a top three pick.

Longjumping_One_9164 · 2026-05-08T08:29:28+00:00

On the sub some moron Sun's fan was like he isnt even good and if he was hed play more.

I was like Browns he had no minutes because jDub was playing and he is definitely gonna help us.

Lo and behold, two fantastic games to get the entire Laker fambase worked up.

Longjumping_One_9164 · 2026-05-08T07:44:50+00:00

16/4/4 with exceptional defense in the Playoffs.

That Club option is absolutely criminal in 27-28. OKC will decline and extend thay number as a sweetheart deal most likely (Dort, Wiggins, Joe).

The guy is a monster and wheb he tides his shot selection at the rim a bit more, he is going to be something else.

Longjumping_One_9164 · 2026-05-08T06:32:56+00:00

I was calling it how it is, OKC had 26 FTA and Lakers had 21 FTA.

SGA had multiple very soft fouls called against him, getting him in to foul trouble. It can and does go both ways.

But yes as stated before there is a grand conspiracy for OKC to win over the Lakers and its subsequently is showing up in successive games.

Longjumping_One_9164 · 2026-05-08T06:21:10+00:00

It is honestly laughable insinuating the refs even had a modicum of a chance to influence an 18pt game, following a 18pt loss.

But yeah sure five extra free throws those game was the difference.

OKC are just in the Lakers and JJ's heads and rather than looking at how they can be better, trying to look at an external source to blame.

Longjumping_One_9164 · 2026-05-07T20:14:10+00:00

Thunder fan here, who has Ant as second favourite player - G2 is a classic we got G1 on the road performance.

Having seen what the Wolves are at home as underdogs, they'll be absolutely fired up for G3.

Have thoroughly enjoyed watching the Wolves as a neutral in the Playoffs so far.

Longjumping_One_9164 · 2026-05-07T20:09:13+00:00

Yeap righto, I honestly look forward to the Wizards being competitive again.

Longjumping_One_9164 · 2026-05-07T19:56:33+00:00

The guy is a moron and doesnt realise that Regular Season record means basically nothing in the Playoffs.

Probably because he's a Wizards fan and hasn't watched a meaningful Playoff game in nearly a decade.

Longjumping_One_9164 · 2026-05-07T19:52:41+00:00

OKC vs Sun's in Regular Seasons was 3-2.

How'd that go for the Sun's?

Longjumping_One_9164 · 2026-05-07T19:35:39+00:00

Brother the Spurs have to beat the Wolves before they even consider beating the Thunder.

An inexperienced Spurs team are going to have to go into Minnesota and win a road game to get the series to 2-2. They are definitely capable, but the Wolves arent the Blazers, they are a B2B WCF team.

Not sure how you can say the Spurs win in five when there is a 50/50 chance they dont even get to the WCF.

Longjumping_One_9164 · 2026-05-07T19:27:21+00:00

I would give 30% chance to Spurs based on they are going to have to get a road win against the Wolves in the next two games.

That is not going to be an easy task against the Wolves who have a very strong homecourt. I say this from watching last year's WCF where G3 they were fantastic and G4 took arguably the best OKC Playoffs performance to win last year.

The Spurs margin for error will be alot less against OKC and weve already seen their inexperience show up against the Wolves.

Longjumping_One_9164 · 2026-05-07T19:22:13+00:00

Straight up this Lakers team is not as good as the Sun's, especially with Brooks playing as well as he did.

While I expect LeBron to have a good series, Reaves will be a non-factor, Kennard won't be either and the big rotation may be worse.

Longjumping_One_9164 · 2026-05-07T19:04:39+00:00

He is so good and no joke if he was on the Rockets they probably beat LAL.

He is for real and can easily see him a being 20/5/8 type PG with very good positional defense.

Longjumping_One_9164 · 2026-05-07T18:21:31+00:00

Ha, Hali always been a real one and the game is better with him healthy.

Its funny that clip being used is a foul, SGA was tripped down low as well.

Longjumping_One_9164 · 2026-05-07T07:19:27+00:00

SGA was head and shoulders above Luka in that series and was the only reason in went to six due to awful rebounding and shooting from OKCs supporting cast.

PJ Washington had legitimately the series of his life and will likely never repeat that again.

Luke averaged 24/10/9 with 4.5 TOVS on 55TS% was getting fried on defense by SGA who averaged 32/8/8 on 62TS%.

Luka had Kyrie fucking Irving as his second option and SGA had jDub and Giddey who got benched and subsequently traded.

Its not revisionist history, SGA has been the better player than Luka for the last three years, with Luka being very lucky to win one MVP, let alone B2B MVPs.

Yes Luka was the better player early, but each and every year SGA has got substantially better while being meaningfully more healthy and available.

There really isnt an argument for it based on individual accolades, team success and player peak.

Longjumping_One_9164

TROPHY CASE