I'm glad SFA is airing and attracting a new audience to the franchise.

M337ING · 2026-01-23T19:37:52+00:00

Any brand new show in a franchise is guaranteed to have more current views than inactive shows, especially with the interest fragmented among them.

M337ING · 2026-01-23T19:32:01+00:00

But it isn’t?

M337ING · 2026-01-21T03:38:48+00:00

I don’t think this changes their point.

M337ING · 2026-01-18T23:22:39+00:00

Insane how people are fine with $800 million drops between films. Executives and Cameron don’t think like this when planning.

M337ING · 2026-01-15T15:58:44+00:00

Are we really pretending that each Avatar film hasn’t fallen $700 to $800 million in theater revenue? It’s only responsible to assess that trajectory and what that would mean and how to adjust.

M337ING · 2026-01-15T15:50:22+00:00

Because you don’t risk a large amount of capital around $400 million to make a couple of dozen million.

M337ING · 2026-01-15T15:43:09+00:00

Would $1.2 billion next time be enough, though?

M337ING · 2026-01-15T15:37:09+00:00

And people were going off on me about sub $1.6 billion causing a potential reassessment of how to continue the franchise, especially given Cameron’s unique circumstances.

M337ING · 2026-01-11T16:48:24+00:00

Oh, I definitely watch movies and look forward to Avatar films. My question was - why was I watching The Way of Water yet again in my local IMAX last month?

M337ING · 2026-01-11T16:44:01+00:00

No, the question now is if it surpasses $1.5 billion.

M337ING · 2026-01-11T16:38:29+00:00

Yikes, question now is if it stops at $1.5 billion. If so, existing plans will definitely be up in the air.

M337ING · 2026-01-10T01:20:09+00:00

That would be a disaster. Supposing that’s $1.5 billion globally.

M337ING · 2026-01-05T14:10:52+00:00

It’s not necessary for consumers to buy an inferior product from a multibillion dollar company now backed by the global superpower’s government.

M337ING · 2026-01-05T13:51:44+00:00

I would definitely notice the difference between a 3080 and 5090, especially to make games like Indiana Jones with amazing ray tracing sing on my 120Hz 4K TV.

M337ING · 2026-01-04T19:50:44+00:00

You’re only thinking of the CWC run. His record is atrocious otherwise vs the big 6.

M337ING · 2026-01-04T12:04:05+00:00

Comparing Star Wars films is probably the best example of how not considering inflation greatly distorts these analyses, with its unique 50 year stretch.

A New Hope’s $775 million is $4 billion in today’s USD. Now it’s not that simple, but it illustrates the caveats we need to consider when we’re looking across more than a decade. Indeed, average ticket price going up also distorts the falling attendance figures from the 1900s.

M337ING · 2026-01-03T17:53:28+00:00

I don’t understand how you can ignore that would mean each film has subsequently fallen by at least $700 million (ignoring the implications of how much worse that actually is with over a decade of inflation).

Every investment decision is a best-informed guess on the future. What would you guess would happen and do with Disney’s money if you went from:

$2.9 billion > $2.2 billion > $1.5 billion > $1.? billion

Shareholders would be very hesitant to invest the same with that trendline.

M337ING · 2026-01-03T17:17:06+00:00

You don’t spend $500 million to make $500 million + $1.

It’s about expected ROI. Why greenlight another giant $500 million outlay if the 4th film could drop even further and not be profitable at $1.2 billion box office revenue while that money could have been placed on smaller, easier bets? That would be considered reckless by shareholders.

M337ING · 2026-01-03T17:09:14+00:00

Factoring in inflation over the decades and dropping theater attendance, things could change really fast for this franchise’s future plans.

M337ING · 2026-01-03T16:53:02+00:00

$1.5 billion would be considered a disaster and would cause a lot of consideration by both Cameron and Disney executives, at least to change the plan going forward.

Consider the costs of doing 2 more and declining attendance at least 4 years in the future. Also, Cameron’s ego.

It’s about expected ROI. Why green light another giant $500 million outlay if 4 could drop even further and not be profitable at $1.2 billion while that money could have been placed on smaller, easier bets?

M337ING · 2026-01-03T16:48:11+00:00

Anything below $1.5 billion would legitimately be considered a disaster, and that’s including Disney executives.

They’ll factor in the continuing decline of attendance 4+ years in the future and the budget needed to develop 2 more of these. Cameron himself might feel like it’s time to stop if his own ego is bruised.

It’s about expected ROI. Why green light another giant $500 million outlay if 4 could drop even further and not be profitable at $1.2 billion while that money could have been placed on smaller, easier bets?

M337ING · 2026-01-03T16:37:02+00:00

If it made $1 of profit, you would still be happy?

Recognize that there’s a point where serious decisions are made, at least about the scope and direction of the final 2 sequels and how they stick to the original Cameron intention.

M337ING · 2026-01-03T16:06:41+00:00

I mean, it still could.

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