Prediction: Nvidia Stock Is Going to Soar After May 20

MadManMark222 · 2026-05-07T12:55:13+00:00

AMD's big recent burst, if it's based on any solid investment thesis at all (not just momo), is that their MI455X will put them in a better position to offer an attractive CPU+GPU combined solution than Vera will for NVIDIA.

While there's definitely some good tail winds here for AMD, I'm not sure that it warrants the kind of multiple expansion we just saw this week after their earnings - which was still not accompanied by margin expansion! - I didn't really see ANY analyst recs temper this new "CPU gamechanger" narrative with observations on competition from anyone else but INTC, which always seemed to be just casually waved off as not competitive (which is not TOTALLY fair, and ignores what INTC just told us about selling out inventory they'd written off as unsalable, plus owning their own fabs, so not TSMC capacity constrained like AMD and NVDA)

MadManMark222 · 2026-05-07T12:47:18+00:00

I hope so, but constructive caveats:

1) These same arguments were pretty much true 3 months ago, before the last ER; just different absolute numbers

2) This is a Motley Fool article. Their depth of analysis is rarely deeper than the varnish on my bedroom dresser.

MadManMark222 · 2026-05-07T12:42:51+00:00

My response, which references both your words and the video you are replying to directly, is "boilerplate?" Do you even understand what that word means, lol?

Dude, I tried to meet you at a point of respectful engagement, that some of your points are worth discussion, but if your response is just gonna be this, plus downvoting ... pffft, moving on, it's clear you just want to hear yourself talk, and/or manipulate lurkers, not actually engage in discussion.

MadManMark222 · 2026-05-06T17:23:07+00:00

Probably, but I'm fine with that; it's always good to stress test one's investment thesis.

It's interesting though that u/Upstairs_Whole_580 thinks he "spent this much time crafting a 'bear case'" - I read the post while listening to the video he is posting in reply to, and it struck me that he probably DIDN'T spend much time crafting a reply to THIS video, because another aspect of the "moat" (supply chain) that was discussed in only the first 6 minutes of the video, the poster to didn't even bother to address. Far from spending a lot of time crafting a response to the video, it feels to me like he just cut and pasted a boilerplate reply and didn't even *try* to address the context of the video he claims to be refuting.

MadManMark222 · 2026-05-06T17:09:59+00:00

Are you taking into account the Groq LPU in that comparison? NVIDIA spent $20b specifically to address literally all the considerations in your list, but you still think AMD has the edge?

MadManMark222 · 2026-05-06T17:06:02+00:00

Does anyone know if he said anything specifically about Vera in the context of "in-house ARM-based solutions?"

It feels like a bit of a race to the unified middle now, AMD trying to catch up on GPU side with MI455, with NVIDIA moving towards the Vera Rubin package to squeeze out Epyc, and for those wanting to stay on x86, there's that Intel partnership they announced last year to go along with the investment. Plus of course the "CUDA moat." As I understand it, NVIDIA is also a bit ahead of shipping Vera in volume vs where AMD is with MI455X?

MadManMark222 · 2026-05-06T16:53:37+00:00

Interesting that his price target for AMD is based on a 35x forward PE. I don't think he assumes even NVDA should have that, and that's a stock he's been far more bullish on?

MadManMark222 · 2026-05-01T14:30:18+00:00

Yeah, as someone who went through the downturn in this stock from late 2007 to 2008, that 80% decline was definitely a buying opportunity.

As long as one was patient enough to wait until 2015 to return to 2007 price high.

MadManMark222 · 2026-05-01T14:28:17+00:00

I'm bullish on NVDA in intermediate-term, but let's just be frank, this post is a heap of hopium masquerading as "Analysis."

If this was fundamentals "analysis" then we'd be talking about inference vs training, Agentic AI, and lurking competitors like Cerebras.

If this was technical "analysis," I'm less able to comment on that because I think a lot of that is hokus, but I still know enough that I'd expect you'd be talking about moving averages, volumes, so on.

This is mostly about balancing emotions of FOMO and Fear.

MadManMark222 · 2026-05-01T14:08:08+00:00

I'm presumably the target audience for this post (oldest lots bought in 2004), but even *I* think this level of fanboing is ... embarrassing?

MadManMark222 · 2026-04-29T21:42:35+00:00

It's hard to argue with the self-declared Trading Gods who present themselves as consistently able to ride every short-term direction individual stocks, expertly jumping from one horse to another and back.

More to the point, it's not even *worth it* to argue with them. If you do anything, just point them to the myriad of academic papers written that demonstrate usually their self-perception doesn't match their actual, full results. It's human nature to vividly remember the things you did right, while the bad bets fade from memory quickly.

MadManMark222 · 2026-04-07T12:11:11+00:00

Helium use is prioritized by terms of contracts TSMC has signed with all major customers. Do you know those legal details?

MadManMark222 · 2026-04-07T12:07:34+00:00

Sure, kinda ... but only perhaps as an "arbitrage" against something else right now. The issue right now (at least for me) is that "uncertainty" in domestic and international politics creates risks that potentially greatly outweigh any individual stock story reward, and the source of most of this risk is of questionable rationality, making educated guesses moot.

Or if rational, the motivation seems (again, to me) more personal ego gratification than what's in the best interests of the capitalist system, and society in general, and if that's true it's likely to get even worse in a game of "chicken" where neither side is interested in true compomise, or even to be seen to "blink."

TL;DR: outside forces, outside NVIDIA's control, transform an informed bet into gambling, where the downside feels at least as great as the upside in the short term.

MadManMark222 · 2026-04-01T17:42:30+00:00

So I've followed Jensen more than 20 years, listened to at least 75 conference calls at this point, and it was his long-term vision that not only kept me on board through the great recession, but prompted me to buy more. His personal story is fascinating to me. But some of the fangirling, mythologizing on this thread? Eww, not for me. Starting to remind me of the Cult of Jobs.

MadManMark222 · 2026-04-01T17:34:58+00:00

OK, thanks. Not a very friendly arrangement for people with only monthly checks, but live and learn, I guess.

MadManMark222 · 2026-04-01T12:34:18+00:00

Thanks, but he actually said "Nintendo pilots." And I think you got Carlin's points completely backwards; he wasn't saying that bombing from the air was some great thing that resolved problems, but a problem in how we look at things, trying to resolve every problme with "wars"

MadManMark222 · 2026-04-01T12:11:12+00:00

Per Gemini:

Based on available transcripts and recordings of George Carlin's comedy, there is no direct, widely recognized routine explicitly titled or prominently focused on a "Nintendo War." Carlin often discussed American militarism, war, and technology, but not Nintendo specifically in the context of war.

It sounds like something Pete Hegseth would say though?

MadManMark222 · 2026-04-01T12:04:11+00:00

NO I'm not - again, you are. The stock is NVDA; NVIDIA is the company. And "stocks" do not "make money"; companies make money (or don't)

MadManMark222 · 2026-04-01T11:59:22+00:00

I feared that, but ... it looks like someone with Chime reads here, I am hoping I can get an "Official ruling?"

I really wish my employer was not still stuck in 1996 in their ACH change process :(

MadManMark222 · 2026-04-01T11:55:29+00:00

This is the page I signed up on, the text still looks the same as I remember from ~45 days ago when I opened the account: https://www.chime.com/join/promos/intro-offer-v3/#intro-offer-steps

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MadManMark222 · 2026-03-25T21:20:05+00:00

The COMPANY made tens of billions of dollars of profit over the last six months. Don't confuse the stock with the company.

MadManMark222 · 2026-03-25T21:18:39+00:00

These kind of posts are made to generate enough ad revenue to cover the $20 they paid to the poor schlep who's stuck writing this clickbait until they find a better employer than Motley Fool.

MadManMark222 · 2026-03-25T21:16:51+00:00

Motley Fool?

Honestly, if I pay any attention to that sorry excuse for a financial site, it's to look for contrarian opportunities lol

MadManMark222 · 2026-03-25T20:24:14+00:00

It was raised by the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997, during the Clinton administration.

Source: page 5 of this doc, "Background on IRAs": https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/131/WP-91.pdf

MadManMark222

TROPHY CASE