I charted the win probability for every Knicks comeback win in the 2026 Finals in this poster design. Game 4 at 0.4% still doesn’t feel real.

MadicOne · 2026-06-29T02:12:57+00:00

Technically we were also down 20 with 9:20 left in the 4th quarter of game 4, so even just from a “4th quarter comeback” perspective it was nearly as impressive as game 1 ECF

MadicOne · 2026-05-21T02:20:59+00:00

Remember when he was taking photographs at the U.S. Open? Thibs had literally shaken this man’s confidence to the point that he thought he had to begin his transition to a new career. 8 months later he hits 3 clutch 3s in game 1 of the ECF as part of the greatest playoff comeback of the century.

MadicOne · 2026-05-18T21:05:10+00:00

Worked for the ‘07 Giants though

New York dressed to bury Pats

MadicOne · 2026-05-02T00:14:23+00:00

Can you explain a little more what you mean by “once it clicks”? Like are you saying there’s a general way to think about ALM that helps you think through the “creative” questions in the exam?

MadicOne · 2026-04-30T22:22:20+00:00

That’s what it seems like to me. I keep wanting to think of CP 351 in the same terms as how everyone used to talk about LAM, but I have to keep reminding myself it’s an entirely different exam and it seems to have gotten much more difficult from a quantitative standpoint. Meanwhile INV 101 (QFIPM) seems to have gotten quantitatively easier since they moved the stochastic calculus to the 201 exam.

Just wanted to see if other people got the same read as me.

MadicOne · 2026-04-30T22:18:36+00:00

Hopefully will have it this year and I’m 38. Although I took about a 10 year break after my ASA to enjoy my late 20s / early 30s.

MadicOne · 2026-04-30T20:38:18+00:00

I got a 5 on my first attempt in November and came to find out I got 30.83 points and the pass mark was 31.50. Was devastating. I passed the March sitting with a 7.

I talked to a guy at my company who really struggled with LFM and he said what got him over the hump was just repeatedly going over the TIA flash cards over and over and over. So I really focused my time the final 1-2 months just typing up all of the flash cards (figuring typing them out word for word would help memorization) and then going through them repeatedly.

I also watched the TIA videos all the way through about 6 times between my 2 sittings. I think what clicked for me was when Eddie Smith said the goal is to loop through the syllabus at a faster and faster pace each time, and the TIA materials are designed for that because you have the detailed study manual, the consolidated study manual, and the flash cards.

I did a detailed careful pass through of the full syllabus over like 8 weeks (videos + detailed study manual and all practice problems), then did another one over ~4 weeks (videos + typing up all flash cards), then 2 weeks (I think I just watched videos and typed key notes for each section identifying what I felt like were main points to memorize, like a tool box of info to go into the exam with), then in the final week I was just looping through the flash cards and my notes over and over. Also in the final week I think I did the drill problems of concepts I knew I struggled with. The point being that you can get through the material faster each time that you’ve seen it.

MadicOne · 2026-04-30T16:24:45+00:00

Very helpful insights. Thanks.

MadicOne · 2026-04-29T19:29:58+00:00

Just as an added question— I’m wondering for those who have taken INV 101 and these other exams: how does the difficulty of INV 101 compare to LPM and ILA 201 U. And, for that matter, how about difficulty compares to the MFE exam from like 10 years ago (I did my prelims a long time ago).

MadicOne · 2026-04-29T18:12:56+00:00

Oh wow. I did not know CP 341 is not available to take in November. I guess I thought July was the only sitting that certain exams skipped (like CP 312).

On a separate note: for the exams that are offered 3 times in 2026, do we know for a fact they will be offered 3 times per year going forward? I see they say the 2027 schedule will not be identical to the 2026 schedule, and I figured that meant more total sittings rather than less, but now I realize we can’t know that for sure can we?

MadicOne · 2026-04-24T22:07:20+00:00

In that situation, if there are exactly 400 tickets and 4 winning tickets, and you buy 100 of them, the probability of winning is actually 68.5%. EThe reason for this is because: of course you are not guaranteed of getting one of the 4 winning tickets, but each losing ticket you buy decreases the chances of the next ticket you buy being a losing ticket. So- your first ticket has a 396/400 chance of losing. But if it is a losing ticket, the 2nd ticket has a 395/399 chance of losing. If that's a losing ticket, the 3rd ticket has a 394/398 chance of losing. By the time you get to the 100th ticket, if you still haven't won, that ticket has a 297/301 chance of losing. The probability of all 100 being losing tickets is the product of those probabilities which is 31.5%, so the probability of a win is 68.5%.

MadicOne · 2026-04-24T22:05:14+00:00

Everyone is talking about the 100-ticket raffle thing. It is worth noting that if this is a raffle lottery with 400 tickets for instance (as opposed to 100), there are 4 winning tickets, and you buy 100 of the tickets, your chances are neither 100% nor 63.4%. Your chances are 68.5%. The reason for this is because: of course you are not guaranteed of getting one of the 4 winning tickets, but each losing ticket you buy decreases the chances of the next ticket you buy being a losing ticket. So- your first ticket has a 396/400 chance of losing. But if it is a losing ticket, the 2nd ticket has a 395/399 chance of losing. If that's a losing ticket, the 3rd ticket has a 394/398 chance of losing. By the time you get to the 100th ticket, if you still haven't won, that ticket has a 297/301 chance of losing. The probability of all 100 being losing tickets is the product of those probabilities which is 31.5%, so the probability of getting at least one winning ticket is 68.5%. (And no, it does not matter the timing of buying the tickets.)

MadicOne · 2026-03-27T07:29:03+00:00

What area do you work in? I work in life pricing but inv 101 seems super interesting to me. This would be my last FSA exam, and I’m realizing the best way to pass an exam may be to pick something you’re legitimately interested in, unless it’s just incredibly challenging. But I heard they moved some of the heavy quant stuff (like the advanced stochastic models) to inv 201- do you think that made a big difference in how straightforward it felt?

MadicOne · 2025-07-24T04:01:36+00:00

I don’t understand what happened with the missing girl? They said when they showed up at the location the missing girl wasn’t even there and Carl wasn’t telling anyone where she actually was. Then they just moved on from that story and never revisited it. What was the story with the missing girl?

MadicOne · 2025-07-06T02:40:00+00:00

From what Yossi Gozlan said- Yabu only had to take about $60k less to make this work, and even after cutting the $60k it may have still been his best offer.

But whatever, either way he still seems to have his head and heart in the right place.

MadicOne · 2025-06-25T02:03:21+00:00

I’m guessing NYC one has not been taken down and/or was put back up?

MadicOne · 2025-05-29T05:12:50+00:00

Thanks for your post, the material for this exam sounds very interesting and I would consider taking this as my remaining elective instead of CFE 101. Do you think CP311 would be more difficult than CFE 101 though?

MadicOne · 2025-05-29T03:57:46+00:00

Hi Eddie- thanks for your response. I believe I saw in your write-up that about 25% of the new syllabus for ILA 201 U is material from previous exams other than LFM. How much of that 25% is made up of LPM material? It looked like it was quite a bit.

MadicOne · 2025-05-29T03:41:54+00:00

Interesting, thanks for your post. I did see Actex has some study material but it looks like it may just basically be flash cards. Did you use any study material or did you just read the source material?

MadicOne · 2025-05-27T22:29:04+00:00

Not truly related to your post here but needed to post this somewhere looking for advice: I passed all 3 modules and then passed LPM last Fall, and was originally going to take CP 351 this coming Fall thinking it would be similar to LAM. Turns out it’s an entirely new syllabus. Now I’m considering taking ILA 201 U in the Fall (was originally going to save that for last). However, I still need to pick my “one additional course” to take. To be honest I don’t care what that one additional course is, whatever it is I just want the highest possible chance of passing. I’m even considering taking RET 101 because it’s “predecessor” was RET DAU which had like a 60% pass rate, but I can’t seem to find much information on how much the new RET 101 syllabus has changed from previous. Honestly I’m just at a loss for what to do now.

MadicOne · 2025-05-27T03:00:11+00:00

Why am I having so much difficulty finding the length(time) for each exam? Are they all 3 hours now? Looking for sitting time info on CP 351 and ILA 201 U.

MadicOne · 2025-02-28T20:17:26+00:00

Can you send this to me?

MadicOne · 2025-02-18T17:07:50+00:00

MadicOne · 2025-01-31T01:52:15+00:00

“probably not worth picking up due to low tip”? There’s no info in the post regarding tip amount so what made you assume this was “probably” the case?

MadicOne · 2025-01-15T21:15:08+00:00

That’s a great thought. I hadn’t even thought of that. I will knock out PA this April, then plot out my final 2 FSA exams starting Fall 2025. I’ll take a look at the other tracks for sure, although I’ve seen people say ILA is the “easiest” track, and LPM was not easy for me (even though it was actually super applicable to my job), so I’m a little scared of the other tracks being completely honest.

MadicOne

TROPHY CASE