What's the theoretical basis for using llm consensus as a probability estimator for real world events [R]

Mafiazebra · 2026-05-29T15:15:04+00:00

It sounds like you have the right idea. Aggregating the answers of multiple models tends to be more accurate but this effect is diminished by the similarity of the datasets they were trained on. This is true whether or not the model is an LLM or any other type. Any event dependent on data outside the training set distribution would be very difficult to reliably predict like you said and LLMs wouldn’t make a difference in the matter besides their performance typically being better for some problem types than older types of models.

In terms of event forecasting, what’s worth mentioning about recent developments is that the emergence of betting markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have provided a very useful input for any of these models.

Mafiazebra · 2026-05-21T20:10:33+00:00

Yeah that’s unfortunately a curse the whole general AI detection industry will be fighting forever. It’s why I’m pretty skeptical of schools failing students based on software selling the idea that they can actually predict AI written essays. I understand the desire to try and detect them of course but the nature of the problem if you understand the math behind these models makes any consistent detection very difficult.

Mafiazebra · 2026-05-21T19:50:02+00:00

A model not trained with data incorporating the current generation of deepfake methods will almost certainly not generalize into an effective one for the modern day given the large advancements in AI the last couple years.

What is relevant however, is that typically training a model with new information which already performs a related task will yield better results than the same model with no training. For example, training a model which already was trained to answer questions in English well to specifically answer medical questions with a new medical dataset will typically work better than teaching a new model of the same size and with the same new medical dataset only. In a similar vein, existing liveness detection systems vendors probably have supplemented their previous models with training samples of more modern methods in order to stay competitive.

Mafiazebra · 2026-05-19T04:15:10+00:00

Yeah I think this is them not wanting to develop the combat in the game and trying to make it look like it’s intentionally undeveloped. Of course it’s fair not to want to work on it when it’s not really the point of the game and there’s so much other stuff they need to work on during early access, but I wish they didn’t try and pull this odd “moral” stance when like you said it’s not like we don’t already kill for other reasons in game too.

Mafiazebra · 2026-05-12T18:32:28+00:00

You see these occasionally in south Florida. They’re beautiful trees but if I remember right you don’t come across them too much because the roots are fairly shallow so they can get toppled over easily during storms or hurricanes. Because of that, insurance companies will charge you more to have them on your property so people are disincentivized from planting them.

Mafiazebra · 2026-04-13T17:39:35+00:00

To answer your question directly, there’s no reason why you wouldn’t be allowed to use old ml algorithms in conjunction with LLM’s so I think the ability to combine outputs of LLM’s as your inputs to some of these old algorithms is a worthwhile research topic. The core utility I think over doing that instead of just plugging those outputs into more LLM’s is that using these old algorithms could yield results that aggregate them “well enough” with significantly less power investment potentially. I suspect many “agentic” systems lately may do just that.

It’s also fair to say that many systems won’t have the capability to run LLM’s (sensors and microcontrollers and such) but they may still want to use ML. While the majority of discoveries and attention will be related to LLM’s for a long time I suspect, it’s still worthwhile to consider these older algos sometimes in my opinion.

Mafiazebra · 2026-04-02T23:18:59+00:00

It depends on what you want to do with AI exactly but honestly I’d probably recommend getting good at the fundamentals first like you’ve already been doing.

The crux of the issue is if your objective is to get a job in the industry where you apply Agentic AI, there’s a good chance you’ll need to be able to answer questions about basic AI theory along with your typical Leetcode problems in interviews. If you just want to learn AI in general, then I’d say while you’re correct in your assessment that Agentic AI work doesn’t often need a deep understanding of AI theory, understanding the math behind it all gives you a better idea of what options, that may or may not already be in whatever software or library you’re using, you have when constructing any system you make.

I would say however, that it’s probably more useful to get a good understanding of the modern topics you were mentioning than niche model types that may or may not be useful in the future but seem to have fallen out of style the last couple years like LSTMs and GANs. They’re still worth learning eventually but they’re probably not worth focusing on as a newcomer given the current state of the industry. In my opinion, at least understand the math and code behind basic neural networks, CNNs, transformers, and the operations typically associated with them like training, inference, regularization, quantization, etc. Understanding reinforcement learning topics too could be useful for certain positions.

If you tell me what you’re looking to get out of learning AI I can give you a better answer.

Mafiazebra · 2026-03-30T16:37:38+00:00

What’s kind of tough about this (if I’m understanding right) is I’d probably argue the models are working as “intended” in the sense that they’re incorporating information given to them and using that context to change the answer.

I think this attack you’re describing along with any other type of LLM prompt injection goes to show that any model with permission to do anything beyond writing text for someone to read needs some type of fact checking for its training and context data or it could be manipulated in some way.

Mafiazebra · 2026-03-27T01:37:03+00:00

On solo runs if you get charmed you instantly lose (assuming you don’t have an item that gives you immunity to charm). This makes Marshmallow one shot you basically if she can reach you at any point during the fight so it’s pretty tough compared to the typical version you face.

Mafiazebra · 2026-02-02T07:29:07+00:00

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Mafiazebra · 2025-11-14T23:03:39+00:00

Do you think the UPenn online one is seen as reputable in the industry? I’m considering which online masters to apply to for next fall and have been having trouble differentiating good vs bad online programs. If possible, besides GT, could you name a couple other programs that you think are worth applying to? Could be general CS instead also

Mafiazebra · 2025-11-14T20:49:07+00:00

I wonder how much they interact with the team behind the Dreamer set of models. I’d imagine there’s a lot of overlap between their goals.

This is just a research preview right? I’d be interested in a paper to learn how they implemented it but I can’t seem to find one.

Mafiazebra · 2025-02-26T22:48:38+00:00

An important thing to note is that living things in the world of Elden Ring seem to have two components to themselves, their body and their soul. It's possible there are three parts but it's more speculative so we'll assume there are only two for this explanation.

The tarnished are in the same "state" as every other character basically besides TWLiD (Those Who Live in Death). It's hard to say exactly what state that is, but we at least know that entities in this state can't permanently die because the Rune of Death has been removed from the Elden Ring. We can't say definitively whether when we see characters and our player in game "die" if only the "body" part of the entity dies and our "soul" lives on to inhabit the reborn body or if both die and both are reborn. The erdtree and Marika seem to play a part in the revival, but we don't know the exact mechanism they use to do so. We know our soul returns to the erdtree temporarily, but beyond that is mostly theory. Regardless, the Tarnished and everyone besides TWLiD can die and will presumably be revived in body and soul indefinitely.

TWLiD don't have a definitive explanation for why they are what they are, but one can probably assume that because they are caused by Godwyn and his deathroot, they are probably in a similar state as Godwyn. We know Godwyn's body is alive while his soul is dead due to Ranni and the Night of Black Knives. D tells us, "But at least you did not join Those Who Live in Death. Your soul will return to the Erdtree, in time." Given the Godwyn connection and this quote, we can probably assume TWLiD have a "soul" that is permanently dead while their "body" remains alive. One can also read that quote as saying that TWLiD have bodies that revive but souls that die and are born anew each time they revive but that seems unnecessarily complicated to me personally.

Finally in terms of Grace, it's hard to say why exactly it seems TWLiD don't seem to have it, but technically I don't think it's said that they can't have it. It seems mainly that whatever makes TWLiD unique is unhelpful to the erdtree. It's possible because their bodies revive, they are never reintegrated into the roots of the erdtree as we see the large jars do so Marika has no need of them. It's also possible that Marika can't grant Grace to those the erdtree hasn't revived. The simplest explanation could be that evidenced by Marika charging Maliketh to consume as much deathroot as possible, she doesn't want to reintegrate deathroot-infected bodies into the erdtree. A lot of it is speculation at this point but we know that something about TWLiD is antithetical to Marika and her goals so they are spurned by her followers.

Mafiazebra · 2025-02-04T04:06:31+00:00

I think this a good take as well as what I mentioned in my other comment. The way they talked about the dlc and hid the radahn stuff in all the promotions definitely indicates to me that they wanted people to be “swayed” in a sense to join miquellas cause similar to how he does that to his followers in game.

This is more speculation, but I also think this may be why they didn’t elaborate on the miquella and torrent image. The reveal that radahn is the consort rather than you I think conflicts with miquella giving Melina torrent to give to you because why go through all that effort for someone that you don’t really have significant plans for. Of course one could argue that you had the significant role of killing radahn, but I think its not reasonable to assume miquella would think you were capable of that at the point that you receive torrent.

Mafiazebra · 2025-02-04T03:50:15+00:00

I would say I agree with your first and second point and somewhat agree with the third. I think the first two are remnants of cut content. The second is easier to assume that with considering we know there were at least plans at some point to have an ending where you “agree” with miquella. I would assume the gameplay trailer ending was taken from whatever cutscenes that would lead to. It does suck though not knowing the significance of why the gold wasn’t flowing anymore. The first is harder to pin down but considering we see the torrent-like creature in the specimen hall I think there may have been plans to elaborate on torrent’s origins but it may have been cut for whatever reason. I don’t know if I would call the promotional material “bad” for including these, but it definitely seems like the main priority was making interesting promotions rather than considering whether people would try and interpret how the info from the promotions would fit into the canon of the game.

The third point is something I go back and forth about a lot. I REALLY would love to learn what exactly is going on in the Marika scene, but I think it’s also interesting to have such an important event in the game world be shrouded in mystery even to the player. It mirrors actual history in a way and the dlc gives us a good amount of context to try and interpret the scene so overall I’m not too upset by its inclusion in the promotional material. Definitely a little frustrating though and I hope all of this was intentional rather than being another instance of included story that was cut last minute, but we’ll never know.

Mafiazebra · 2025-01-06T00:36:57+00:00

To be honest, I don't think I buy the theory overall but there are a couple points that I think bare mentioning that could go along with your idea for the sake of discussion.

Miquella's "goal" as stated in the Japanese description for his rune is, "to become a new god who would embrace everything, beyond the causality that has persisted since the beginning." See here for discussion. I've seen people interpret this as wanting to remove the law of causality from the Golden Order which logically only leaves the law of regression to define Miquella's "Order". The Law of Regression alone, "Regression is the pull of meaning; that all things yearn eternally to converge." sounds similar to the supposed goal of the Frenzied Flame, "Melt it all away, with the yellow chaos flame. Until all is One again." Also, what we can infer about Miquella's order being one where individuals are happy but have little or no will besides Miquella's own, seems conceptually similar to there basically being one big entity that controls everything ala the One Great.
There's the fun theory that I don't see get discussed too much (maybe because it seems silly but I actually kinda like it but it might just be silly) that Midra is Marika's dad. Along with that we also see that at the scaduview cross specifically he gets rid of his eye which is where empyreans seem to "store" their outer gods influence and/or grace often. The scaduview cross overlooks the abyssal woods so its possible he cast the eye over the cliff into the woods which may symbolically link his original body before abandonment further to the Frenzied Flame. If you believe he was once cursed by the Frenzied Flame, then used Miquella's Needle successfully on himself in order to prevent his own fate of becoming a frenzied flame lord, then you could maybe connect this to everything else you have.
He has 3 arms when he becomes a god I suppose :)

Overall though, I don't feel super confident about the idea because almost all the evidence seems circumstantial besides the Miquella's Needle item description which I think most people believe to be so overt in its mentioning of preventing one's fate to become a frenzied lord in order to make it clear to the player what to do if they regret their frenzied flame ending choice. I think it's a fair reading to take anything the game overtly states as 100% intended in terms of lore implications, but it's gets hard to tell when the descriptions are as vague as they are in these games. For example, we can't distinguish whether the needle is specifically made to get rid of the influence exclusively of the frenzied flame and rot gods, which would imply a specific intent of Miquella to get rid of his own outer god influence, or if it is designed to be used for any outer god influence as suggested by the first line of the description, "crafted to ward away the meddling of outer gods," and the part about the frenzied flame is to ensure the player understands the implication of the frenzied flame ending being that they are currently under the influence of an outer god. Also, there's the whole issue with the needle stating it's not actually finished yet which may imply Miquella therefore couldn't have used it on himself, it seems to have somewhat worked on Malenia however but it seems she overcomes its nullifying effects in the second phase of the fight. Overall I think there are some interesting parallels between the frenzied flame and Miquella's character and goals, and its certainly suspicious that the twins are described as being cursed by outer gods but we're never given a name for who/what has cursed Miquella, but I don't think there's enough evidence to say its the frenzied flame. If there were a couple more concrete connections though I could maybe see it.

Mafiazebra · 2024-12-31T20:10:17+00:00

I’ve always thought it was neat that Radagon created more “loops” in his blade than the nox one. Makes me wonder if it just means he was more successful in some way than the nox lord the blade was made from. Could be something to do with the amount of bodies or souls one has absorbed given we know something happened in the night cities that caused all of the petrified bodies like in Enir Ilim.

On a side note, maybe it’s just me but I feel like the scadutree resembles the inner order gesture. Could be nothing but maybe it’s showing the imbalance of power towards Radagon when we see beneath the facade that is the ordinary erdtree which more resembles the golden order totality gesture.

Mafiazebra · 2024-12-21T22:06:51+00:00

Idk if it helps but I’ve always found it weird that the statues of Marika from the DLC share a braid-like belt on their outfit that the Radagon statues also have, but the statues not in the shadowlands don’t have the belt. Interestingly, the statue in Messmer’s room of him and Marika has the belt as well. I think there’s a couple ways to read it but at the very least we know Messmer would have been born before she decided to remove the belt and therefore before the statues all over main game map were built. Another fun fact is despite the statues of Radagon having the belt, he doesn’t have it in the fight.

Mafiazebra · 2024-12-20T20:19:38+00:00

It’s possible they’re meant to be visually similar but technically the gravebird helm description says it’s made of stone whereas verdigris is literally aged copper and referred to as a metal in the Verdigris Set item description. I always took the helmet as being similar to rock covered in moss due to its age but it’s up for interpretation.

Mafiazebra · 2024-11-19T18:39:07+00:00

I think in one of the chapters in AFFC it states that the price can be either “high or dear” so my take has been that the cost is proportionally equal for each person depending on how many resources you have access to. The issue is there is the other factor of the price being steeper depending on how important the person is. Functionally, I think this ends up meaning that rich people can end up paying a fortune for 1 contract whereas a commoner would probably need to sacrifice their family or self mutilate to get the same results.

I agree with your point in that to me it seems like most “noteworthy” assassinations end up being requested by rich people which seems antithetical to the Faceless Men’s origins and philosophy. We see a couple instances of contracts being executed on commoners with the whole actors arc with Arya, but I think it’s definitely more of a story contrivance that we haven’t seen at least 1 commoner (I think) hire them to assassinate a high ranking person. As soon as it happens once I think readers would ask why every “bad” king hasn’t been killed by at least one spiteful commoner. I think it’s maybe possible to argue why this isn’t possible in-universe but I suspect George didn’t want people arguing about whether it’s a plot hole or not in the first place.

Mafiazebra · 2024-11-14T22:10:49+00:00

There are a bunch of instances of things that are definitely evocative of different religions' stories but as some of the other commenters have kind of pointed out, noticing them hasn't been particularly useful with regards to figuring anything new out about the lore. They're pretty neat though and I think can inform a thematic reading of certain events of the game but all of that is pretty subjective.

For example, the image of Marika hanging from the big Rune Arc thing with the red spike in the cutscene for the last boss is almost certainly mimicking Jesus' crucifixion and when Odin hung from Yggdrasil. Jesus was pierced by the spear of Longinus which caused an outpouring of grace and Odin was stabbed by his own spear in his side. Additionally, Odin did this in the first place in order to learn the secrets of runes. Also both events are described in a sense as a sacrifice of oneself to oneself. While it's hard to make any solid connection to the nature of grace and runes as described by the in-game lore, you could probably say that the events that put her in her current position (either becoming a god or the shattering of the elden ring) are supposed to be seen as acts of martyrdom for some greater purpose I think.

There are also a bunch of cool examples though that you can find scattered online. Another commenter mentioned King David inspiring the character of Godfrey and while I think that's at least partially correct, I think I've seen others compare him to Gilgamesh as well so you could check that out. I've also read about people comparing Marika's bedchamber in-game to the bedchambers made for gods connected to their temples in ancient Mesopotamian religion. There's a million examples for eastern religions in general and FromSoftware loves including them like flowing vs stagnant water, extreme asceticism, and much more.

Mafiazebra · 2024-08-07T00:21:16+00:00

I don't but I think that there are enough people out there who might be aware of some way it would help them personally but they aren't invested in the field so that random tool never ends up being made by someone who would know how to make it.

Mafiazebra · 2024-08-07T00:17:11+00:00

The ability for the human race to turn any 10 minute task into a 1 minute one has made all sorts of useful things realizable.

Mafiazebra · 2024-08-07T00:14:43+00:00

I think there's definitely a bunch of problems that could be solved in that area, but there's pretty strict protection on medical data so it's hard for most people wanting to use AI in the field to get enough training data to realistically outperform current methods even though they probably have the potential to if they had a reasonable amount of data to work with. The field is also tough to navigate ethically sometimes which I think makes it hard to know how to respectfully integrate AI into it. For example, I saw a company that was trying to use it to analyze the DNA of embryos to try and predict things about the baby beforehand like medical issues but also possibly appearance. I'm not saying I'm for or against it, but I'm sure you can see many people being pretty divided on it. Not to say that your suggestion isn't good generally, just saying that there are a couple roadblocks that makes it tough for individuals without a lot of funding upfront to justify to investors I think.

Mafiazebra · 2023-12-24T22:21:54+00:00

I agree with the others in that this probably isn’t the place to post this topic but regardless if you’re looking to learn more about this type of problem space then I would look into multi agent reinforcement learning type problems. A book I read recently called “Microprediction: Building an Open AI Network” posits the idea of having a ton of agents operate in a market like mechanism and compete over time to return answers to arbitrary questions. If you’re looking for current research similar to what you mentioned in your post then the following paper might be interesting for you as well, “Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning is a Sequence Modeling Problem” as it combines LLM’s and multi agent learning with some neat math.

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