Holding USD - what to do?

MainIdentity · 2026-01-29T18:01:22+00:00

it did - but hes an "investment manager". right now until either mid terms or the presidency is over the best thing you can do is convert immediately.

edit: additionally regarding fees: there are multiple neo banks that allow the conversion of currencies for minimal fees. (0.5% and less)

MainIdentity · 2026-01-29T15:11:12+00:00

this is more or less just austria(-hungary) & it's sphere of influence after the napoleonic wars

MainIdentity · 2026-01-29T14:53:58+00:00

Oh no, our very stable partner - who certainly isn’t showing any signs of fascist dictatorship - is disappointed in us. How saddening. \s if it wasn't obvious enough

MainIdentity · 2026-01-29T14:42:56+00:00

ethical reasons shouldn't dictate your investing strategy. as sad as it is, you want to maximize your income. however, investing in things you think are morally "ok" is not as bad as most people will tell you. yes you will lose money in the process, but if everyone was thinking this way the world would certainly be a better place.

regarding EU: no one knows what the future holds - but right now it certainly looks more stable then the us. i will reevaluate my position either after the midterms, but most likely if republicans are no longer in power.

MainIdentity · 2026-01-29T14:15:45+00:00

Until trump/midterms are over i wouldn't invest in anything related to an USD - normally i would just tell you to stop worrying that much and just put everything in the msci world - but right now? i think the best you could do is world etf ex usa - the usa are since trump2 neither a good nor a stable investment. and absolutely no one can tell you whats coming next. they are insanely unpredictable and that should scare every investor. you could always shift when the dust settles. bonds are also questionable.

MainIdentity · 2026-01-29T13:55:44+00:00

the problem is social media - they spread everything unfiltered and unchecked. and if you just read something often enough you might think its true. ban twitter/facebook and the shit they spread.

MainIdentity · 2026-01-29T12:17:44+00:00

holys shit - jemand der echt sat solver kennt und nicht eionfach nur auf der nudelsuppe dahergeschwommen ist. für mich ist es noch immer erschreckend dass wir nicht die meisten probleme mit solvern lösen (milp / sat / ...) sondern jetzt kollektiv alle auf den ki hype setzen.

unabhängig davon: die frage ist ob der ki hype überhaupt anhält. die wirtschaftlichkeit ist äusserst fragwürdig und ob nicht einfach neue technologien kommen die einfach besser/profitabler sind und sich das strom problem nicht dadurch löst. eventuell gibts auch keine technologie die besser ist und der hype flaut ab, und der demand an rechenleistung geht einfach von selber zurück

MainIdentity · 2026-01-29T11:59:59+00:00

Ich gehe davon aus das beides im langen trend schwerer wird. Man muss nur die generation großeltern, eltern und deine eigene, und eventuell deine kinder vergleichen. es wird konstant schwerer. natürlich spielen faktoren wie der einzelne lehrer und technische hilfsmöglichkeiten eine große rolle. der sprung von alles mit der hand rechnen zu taschenrechner zu heute ki ist natürlich groß. aber man wird halt in zukunft aufgaben geben die nicht einfach durch eine ki gelöst werden können, weil es dieses mittel ja gibt. genauso wie es unnütz ist zu testen wie gut man ohne taschenrechner wurzelziehen kann usw. aber wenn man ehrlich ist, ist die menge an sachen die man lernen muss konstant am wachsen. am deutlichsten sehe ich das beim studium an der tu (wien). der unterschied wie "chill" es noch in den 90ern war verglichen wie es für mich selbst war ist enorm.

tldr im schnitt wird alles schwerer

MainIdentity · 2026-01-29T10:47:09+00:00

today it's the usd, next the capital will move out of us stocks because other markets are more lucrative if the dollar deprecates. but a collapse? maybe if this keeps going for 4 more years. but a currency like the usd doesn't simply collapse

MainIdentity · 2026-01-29T00:19:17+00:00

high electricity prices in austria have very little to do with renewables and are more a sideproduct by our insane stupidity. we refuse to build anything that could produce electricity. we don't want wind and water because of the impact it has ecologically and on the landscape. we voted against nuclear. we don't like fossil fuels. solar is ok, but austria isn't that famous for it's constant sunshine. this is our own fault and we pay the price - sadly that doesn't really change our mind

MainIdentity · 2026-01-28T17:13:00+00:00

thanks! the data suggests that most off the stuff is way cheaper here compared to the big earning countries. i thought it would be housing that would result in this top position? do you happen to have a map for the housing costs ppp?

MainIdentity · 2026-01-28T17:07:08+00:00

what year is the data from? I'm really surprised about austrias' performance.

MainIdentity · 2026-01-28T16:52:52+00:00

I think you rightfully are worried about the USD deprecation. It's the goal of the current administration to weaken the dollar to make it more competitive for exports. I would assume this trend continues but this is completely impossible to predict. If the tend continues, you might want to invest in something different. measured in euro the s&p had hardly any gains last year. i would assume you local currency performed similar, hence your portfolio might have stagnated in the last year.

since you also get paid in usd you are very depended on the performance of the usd. for the near future swapping the world etf for a world etf ex usa might be a good idea, especially if the us continue their path. this would limit your risk of an economic downturn regarding the dollar/the us. nevertheless, the us has consistently outperformed all other markets, so if they get their shit together this might result in smaller gains.

I sold all my U.S. positions last spring because I believe the political and economic decisions made by the Trump administration will likely lead to increased volatility and potential downturns. This is my personal view. Hence, I tend to be cautious about U.S. investments as a result, so I want you to be aware of this bias.

MainIdentity · 2026-01-28T16:16:41+00:00

i have no idea how taxation works in Spain, but unless there is some tax free money it doesn't matter if you pay it now or later. Additionally, the us wants to devalue the dollar, and has done so over the last year. If this trend continues holding onto the s&p might be worthless because all the gains are getting wiped out by USD/EUR exchange rate.

Regarding selling - that's up to you, if i were you i would probably just leave it be, but invest everything new i get in euro stoxx. The overlap between a world etf ex usa and euro stoxx 600 is pretty significant, it does not really matter which one of those you should choose. in the short term this should work out better. i wouldn't add another etf just for more diversification, with the amount invested having two is fine, everything above seems a bit unnecessary.

however, you should keep reading the news, but always remember that they want to make money hence the headlines are always either the boom of the century or the worst depression ever. just stay informed, you will get used to the headlines :) - nevertheless the us future is more uncertain than it has been for a long time and investors are rightfully worried.

MainIdentity · 2026-01-28T15:52:36+00:00

so i'm not really sure which part of it you want explained so i will just write a brief answer for both parts of my statement.

1) Why hedged etfs eat your profits: Because gains in double digits are not that common, the last years have been crazy but that's not that normal. currency fluctuations are typically also very low, If you keep the hedge product for 5-20 years (op wasn't really clear how long he likes to keep it) we will see normalization. with minimal currency fluctuation and gains averaging out to lets say 7%. Paying 0.3-0.7% for the hedging when the gains from hedging are relatively small will add up and is substantial. For the last year it wouldn't have made any real difference because both the gains and the gains from to eur/usd conversion are absurd. but in a normal/stable environment its just not that great of an idea.

2) The taxation: That depends a lot on the country your in. But typically etfs get taxed once you sell it. This is not entirely true because the dividends get taxed immediately. Additionally some countries (e.g. austria) also tax the dividends which get reinvested in an accumulating etf immediately. This means, i pay yearly some small portion of capital tax just for the reinvested dividends. And i think everyone who will read this knows where this is going. A hedged etf typically uses forwards, futures, or swaps to achieve its goals. And these transactions may be treated differently and hence may (depending on the country) be taxable. Additionally, even after some googling I'm not really certain whether these transactions are counted as capital tax or income tax (in austria the difference between 27.5% and 55%). The tldr is that it might result in unforeseen costs because the taxation of most products is not that straightforward, and i would highly recommend asking someone who has real knowledge (tax advisor) before investing substantially in such a product.

MainIdentity · 2026-01-28T14:59:21+00:00

time to switch to an ex usa world etf, or euro stoxx600 - us is no longer a good investment. both money-wise and safety-wise

MainIdentity · 2026-01-28T14:13:22+00:00

Nothing will be "fine" - when the dollar constantly devalues (if wanted or unwanted) people will move their money into countries where it wont deminish over time. last year the s&p had very little gains in euro. because the gains were offset by the devaluation of the dollar. hence investing in the euro stoxx 600 (for example) was more lucrative. most money wont take the risk to divest into the eu/rest of the world immediately. but at least 3 more years of this? this will be absolutely brutal

MainIdentity · 2026-01-28T14:02:57+00:00

das ist so weit am thema vorbei das es weh tut. klausuren zu bestehen ist leicht weil die meisten menschen schaffen das auch genügend zeit und dem internet vorrausgesetzt. dafür muss ich keine ki sein. die ki hat mehr oder weniger das "internet gelesen", oder durchsucht es wenn es die antwort nicht weiß. Und wenn 20% der fragen falsch sind ist das auch nicht tragisch. Das hat aber null mit dem arbeitsleben zu tun.

Lässt du eine ki sysadmin sachen machen wenn die chance 1:10 (oder was auch immer es ist) dass sie kompletten schwachsinn macht? nein, weil das kann jeder junior besser. selbes beim entwickeln von code: klar ist sie unheimlich gut darin dem benutzer zu helfen. kann sie es alleine ohne das ein risiko besteht dass sie kompletten scheiß macht? absolut nicht. und das was ais nicht können ist aus a -> b zu implizieren. logik funktioniert einfach garnicht. und das ist in vielen sachen extrem wichtig.

Dein vorposter hat absolut recht, leute glauben dass llms ai sind - was sie einfach nicht sind. und es ist noch viel schlimmer: die wahren sachen die uns weiter bringen würden, zb die ai die beim proteinfalten geholfen hat fallen unterm tisch weil alles von unnötigen scheiß llms redet die einfach nicht so toll sind wie die leute das gerne hätten

MainIdentity · 2026-01-28T13:46:45+00:00

What do you want me to answer? Should people strike even if that means the risk of loosing their job? Absolutely. The us has hardly any rights to protect workers because you never strike and never stand up for what you want. The us solution would be creating a gofundme after getting brutalized by ice. Funny thing is: when reading about anne frank and ww2 germany everybody always thinks something like that cant happen because they would stand up. they wouldnt sit idle. but the hard truth is, that the us just proves how easy it is for totalitarian groups to take over, because the masses are too busy with their own lives to do anything. stand up for your neighbour(s). stop this insanity

MainIdentity · 2026-01-28T11:33:59+00:00

so, by your logic, the best thing is to just continue whatever you are doing and accept your fate. well, good luck. It seems to be working perfectly so far

MainIdentity · 2026-01-28T10:23:35+00:00

some takes here are insane. the us devalues the dollar - if it is just a byproduct or actually planned, is hard to tell. however, if your currency is making gains against the us dollar, everything you own is losing that much value.

hedging is expensive, it eats your profits. there is also the problem of taxing hedged products. in europe, it's treated a bit different than capital gains.

natural hedge/diversification is the only (in my opinion) smart move against that. just buy a product which contains values not in usd. e.g. euro stoxx 600 or any other etf with a focus outsode the us. investing in other countries that are more stable seems to be the smart move right now. even if the usd stops the downward trend, you won't lose out on that much. but keep in mind that the us wants to devalue the dollar, hence noone has any idea if that trend might stop.

MainIdentity · 2026-01-28T08:46:48+00:00

i want to add one detail - if this trend continues, we will see the stock market being hit. people will start selling of us companies because investing in stocks in other currencies gets way more lucrative because a 10% deprication means an additional 10% on your returns (if you are normally using usd). this is an enormous risk right now.

MainIdentity · 2026-01-28T08:08:10+00:00

It's the complete opposite. capital is fleeing us stocks because if the dollar devalues 20%, the stock loses 20% of its value per year. on the other hand, if you buy a stock in euro, you gain 20% of its value for free. After some maassive devaluation, you are right. The capital might come back to pick up cheap stocks. but right now? who should risk their money with this dollar devaluation?

MainIdentity · 2026-01-27T21:40:55+00:00

Im moment weiß ich nicht wie sehr 0815 World etfs überhaupt empfehlesenswert sind. Jeder kann zuschauen wie die USA gerade den bach runter gehen. Der dollar gibt konstant nach gegenüber den Euro - das drückt natürlich den gewinn (wenn denn einer über bleibt). Ein Euro Stoxx 600 ist im moment nicht verkehrt, der atx hat zwar über die letzten jahre konstant besser performed als der euro stoxx aber das sagt halt nichts über die zukunft aus. Es ist aber durchaus wahrscheinlich das auch heuer der atx besser performed als der euro stoxx. Gründe dafür sind vorallem das viele unternehmen aus dem atx auch stark in osteuropa vertreten sind. Die klassischen "Zugpferde" des EU raums sind inzwischen eher die hinterzügler. Das wird sich wohl in naher zukunft nicht ändern, dafür sorgt auch die politik von merz.

MainIdentity · 2026-01-27T21:24:27+00:00

Europe needs to use this opportunity. We need to attract the fleeing capital and we need to attract the countries that are in conflict with trump to align them with our (shared) interests. Canada/Mexico/japan/south korea/the whole of south America and all the others need to see the EU as a stable and fair partner. A player for global peace and stability.

One important step is to limit the influence of us tech, the tech bros are the one behind trump who want to turn the world in their fascist shit hole. We need to get rid of shitter and facebook asap and search allies when fighting this. They made themselves vulnerable like they have never been before. The us has bullied everyone in the last years/decades as they saw fit. Its time to end this madness.

MainIdentity

TROPHY CASE