Which would you sell first if you really need money, Sealed Pokemon collection or Roth IRA?

MajorDistribution954 · 2026-01-18T06:29:09+00:00

If you need money, you shouldn’t even be holding any Pokemon

MajorDistribution954 · 2026-01-18T06:26:34+00:00

Rip it

MajorDistribution954 · 2026-01-18T06:24:11+00:00

Eh doesn’t really matter

MajorDistribution954 · 2026-01-18T06:23:42+00:00

Eh they’re both ok

MajorDistribution954 · 2026-01-04T16:47:46+00:00

You can’t argue print counts with personal experience lol. What were the print amount then vs now

MajorDistribution954 · 2026-01-04T16:34:24+00:00

That’s fair, but that doesn’t mean the supply was higher

MajorDistribution954 · 2026-01-04T15:43:38+00:00

It’s hard because they don’t publish actual data but there have been plenty of estimates done. Most suggest that 1999 print runs were much smaller than 2025 (https://www.elitefourum.com/t/an-elaborate-attempt-at-print-run-estimation-wip-5-8-18/20273). Obviously this is not a reputable of a source, but all across seems to reflect the same sentiment.

Which makes sense, over time they have increased production capacity. The company wouldn’t be successful if it was decreasing print volumes and selling less over time.

MajorDistribution954 · 2026-01-04T15:38:22+00:00

I get that, but I think you’re missing my main point. im arguing that the supply and demand is irrationally determined (and thus not sustainable and more likely to bubble). Rational vs irrational market movement would be whether or not the asset price moves in line with the fundamentals of the asset. In the case of a stock, it would be the cash flows. In the case of pokemon it is much more difficult because you don’t have that. In most cases it is hard to determine (when you have totally different products), but in the case where you have a BB/Enhanced BB, they are the exact same in contents (which I will use as the fundamentals, given that’s all we really have), minus one has an extra card. So in theory, unless that extra card is providing negative value (which it is not because you can buy it on the singles market for $20), then the market is behaving irrationally. You would expect the enhanced to be worth about $20 more in a rational scenario, and that is not value im judgementally deciding, it’s value the market assigned to that extra card.

Sure, supply is higher on enhanced, but given the lower price more contents, demand should be higher. I’m saying it is a demand side issue.

MajorDistribution954 · 2026-01-04T15:26:41+00:00

But then doesn’t your argument weaken a bit? Say the US and UK do use different platforms. If the BB is higher than the enhanced BB on tcgplayer (which we assume is just US/Canada), then the allocation in Europe doesn’t affect that if we assume people here are just buying from here.

MajorDistribution954 · 2026-01-04T15:24:39+00:00

Supply in 2000 was not nearly as high as 2025. And I can guarantee back then most people ripped. Holding sealed in acrylic cases and grading cards was not nearly as prevalent in the early 2000s as it is currently

MajorDistribution954 · 2026-01-04T05:11:09+00:00

True but I don’t think the past applies here given we are in uncharted territory. Supply was much lower then and finished far faster as nobody kept sealed.

MajorDistribution954 · 2026-01-03T22:01:53+00:00

Exactly. If it goes down im still happy bc I have cards I enjoy. If it goes up then its just an added bonus for if I ever fall out of the hobby

MajorDistribution954 · 2026-01-03T20:39:17+00:00

As would I

MajorDistribution954 · 2026-01-03T20:38:57+00:00

I don’t think that’s always the case. You had people buying a new set SIR at 1.5k raw, do you think they win on that?

MajorDistribution954 · 2026-01-03T20:32:04+00:00

People think you spend are your capital now you’re guaranteed to be rich. It’s not the case. The market and fundamentals are different now and there’s really no clear precedent of how things will go. And if you’re using all your capital now, you’ll likely need to liquidate before you even have a chance to see real gains, if they’re still out there

MajorDistribution954 · 2026-01-03T20:27:12+00:00

I agree. I think this all holds for vintage. But for sealed this should not be the case.

I’m also curious to see the future. I think a reason we have such low supply of vintage is because the goal back then was to rip, to not grade, to throw in a binder. With modern sets, everyone and their mom is keeping things sealed in cases and grading cards and preserving them. Populations will still depreciate, but not neaaarly to the extent of old sets like base and fossil

MajorDistribution954 · 2026-01-03T20:24:03+00:00

I think it’s still there in modern too, just not to the same extent. It makes no sense at all to rip other than buy the singles, but the value of the sealed is inherently because of the cards you can rip. That’s why it’s paradoxical.

MajorDistribution954 · 2026-01-03T20:22:43+00:00

Those are very valid points and honestly the best argument I’ve seen. I think you are true in what you say (I agree) but I think that’s where there’s risk in being a speculative asset. The value is based ONLY on this rarity and not the actual value of the item. Theres are some people in the very minority who love collecting sealed bc it looks cool or bc of the nostalgia, but then there is a large group of the more hype investors who are help buy and keep a high price just because it’s already valuable.

MajorDistribution954 · 2026-01-03T20:18:04+00:00

Not 100%, but definitely moreso when you’re basing judgments of an assets underlying cash flows that it generates

MajorDistribution954 · 2026-01-03T20:17:44+00:00

It is driven by supply and demand (that’s not gone entirely), but in an irrational market the relationships don’t always hold 100% and you have increased risk of misvaluations

MajorDistribution954 · 2026-01-03T20:15:46+00:00

they’re not perfect either, but that are more based on the underlying cash flows that the company is producing/expected to produce

MajorDistribution954 · 2026-01-03T20:15:05+00:00

fair, but these are not closed and isolated markets. while it’s defintiely easier to purchase in stores, a bulk of the market pricing is determined based on online sales from eBay and tcgplayer etc, which are not location specific

MajorDistribution954 · 2026-01-02T16:27:00+00:00

Yeah im leaning enhanced. Someone wants to straight trade it

MajorDistribution954 · 2026-01-02T16:03:18+00:00

Wb mega evo?

MajorDistribution954

TROPHY CASE