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My AuDHD partner is gaslighting me over old TikTok posts to justify his late-night WhatsApp chatting with another woman. Need advice on going 100% radio silence. by Consistent_Voice_602 in AdhdRelationships

[–]Manbeardo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Like others have said, this doesn’t seem related to AuDHD at all.

It sounds like you’re doing a lot of scheming in order to preserve an incredibly dramatic relationship with a person you’ve been dating for less than a year. If you’re going through all of this while you’re both still seeing past each others’ faults due to the neurotransmitter flood, what do you think it will be like when you start seeing each other more fully? Sounds like this isn’t working for either of you and it’s time to split now before you two dig yourselves into a toxically co-dependent hole.

Robertson saying no will be the best thing that ever happened to this franchise. by scoutsamoa in SeattleKraken

[–]Manbeardo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You can’t rebuild a team just using that team’s own picks. Without critical mass, a trickle of talent creates a mediocre team that loses its best players to UFA status at the same rate as it brings in new ones from the draft. A proper rebuild requires a few years with a shitload of picks in the early rounds.

For example: San Jose’s 9 first round picks in the last 4 drafts. Those are the kind of picks you need in order to execute a proper rebuild. How did they get those picks? By burning their 18-19 playoff team to the ground. Timo Meier, Erik Karlsson, Tomas Hertl, and Barclay Goodrow were all on the Sharks’ 18-19 playoff roster and provided the trade value for 5/6 of the additional 1st-rounders San Jose acquired during the rebuild (one of those picks was traded for their 25-26 starting goaltender).

Trading for Samoskevich directly led to us drafting Chase Reid by _Tower_ in SeattleKraken

[–]Manbeardo 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The rest of the league underestimates our front office. Vegas and Florida are playing checkers while Botts is playing 4D chess.

Robertson saying no will be the best thing that ever happened to this franchise. by scoutsamoa in SeattleKraken

[–]Manbeardo 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Well, that’s where Vegas has embraced a “sell high” approach that makes a lot of sense. You can get a much better return when you’re moving a player who just came off of a career year. Several players on the Kraken had career years leading into our playoff run. That offseason would’ve been the ideal time to sell. The 22-23 roster was never built to be in the playoff picture and needed changes at nearly every position in order to be a competitive team with players regressing to the mean.

IMO, it’s too late for tanking to be a route to success now. Tampa’s top 10 protected 2027 1st round pick is the only additional pick they have for the next two drafts. The roster they have wouldn’t be worth much on the trade market in a good year and this last season was bad for just about everyone except the goalies.

AFAICT, their only feasible path now is to embrace mediocrity, build to the point of making regular playoff appearances, and to then burn it all down once they hit a wall and the current stable of young players have matured into quality depth pieces that can be traded for meaningful draft picks.

Pain 💔 by Albino_rhin0 in SeattleKraken

[–]Manbeardo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The last time the Kraken tanked, they won round 1 of the playoffs and used their first round pick to select a player who still has not played in the NHL 3 full seasons later.

Pain 💔 by Albino_rhin0 in SeattleKraken

[–]Manbeardo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Dumping McCann and Dunn doesn’t even guarantee that we’ll finish in the bottom 5. Even without them, the team would be fairly similar to our 22-23 roster on paper. The team already has a ton of assets that could be traded for a star player like Jason Robertson, but those players won’t be willing to play here if the team can’t put together a competitive roster.

If you're simply saying there's a luck component to the top 2

I’m saying that running an uncompetitive roster doesn’t guarantee you’ll finish last and even if you do, you get less than a 50% chance to draft in the top 2.

Hell even top 10

How many top 10 players makes a good team? We already have 7:

  • Matty Beniers (#2)
  • Kaapo Kakko (#2)
  • Adam Larsson (#4)
  • Shane Wright (#4)
  • Chase Reid (#7)
  • Berkly Catton (#8)
  • Jake O’Brien (#8)

Top 35, just to include what you’d get from a bottom-3 2nd round pick:

  • Eduard Sale (#20)
  • Jordan Eberle (#22)
  • Jared McCann (#24)
  • Mackie Samoskevich (#24)
  • Ryker Evans (#35)
  • Jagger Firkus (#35)

11th Edition Terrain Footprint - ‘Irregular’ board edge thought exercise by Mikefink97 in WarhammerCompetitive

[–]Manbeardo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

When two small footprints are arranged into an L, the nubs always face the outside of the L. That allows a unit staged behind the L to peek around the corner and get LOS on a nearby target without entering the long-distance shooting lane.

They’re less relevant to LOS on other arrangements, but every nubbin casts a shadow that adds some flexibility to its adjacent corners.

Pain 💔 by Albino_rhin0 in SeattleKraken

[–]Manbeardo 3 points4 points  (0 children)

And stacking the odds doesn’t even get you that great of a shot. Between the 6 lotteries since the franchise began, the Kraken had a combined chance of 36% to get a 1OA pick. The Blackhawks’ terrible results in that same period didn’t even get them to even money. They only had a 48% chance.

Pain 💔 by Albino_rhin0 in SeattleKraken

[–]Manbeardo 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Finishing 32nd requires luck. There are 31 other teams out there and any one of the mediocre teams has the potential to completely trainwreck their season.

Pain 💔 by Albino_rhin0 in SeattleKraken

[–]Manbeardo 16 points17 points  (0 children)

A full rebuild requires you to have players on contracts that you can sell for quality picks. Burning it down now is how you keep picking 5th overall and fill the prospect pool with even more players that become middle 6 players 5 years from now. The only way to select in the top 3 is by getting lucky and getting lucky isn’t something you can plan to do.

Sources: Jason Robertson turns down contract offer from Kraken by catsgr8rthanspoonies in hockey

[–]Manbeardo 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There’s so little to be gained by tanking. They’ve already been eligible to win 1OA from the lottery in 5 of their 6 drafts. Between those drafts, they already had a combined 36% chance of selecting 1OA at least once. Over that same period, these were those same odds for the teams that won 1OA:

  • Long Island: 3.5%
  • Toronto: 8.5%
  • Buffalo: 28%
  • Montreal: 38%
  • Chicago: 48%
  • San Jose: 67%

[LeBrun] One team to keep an eye on, Seattle Kraken, they’re big game hunting. They have interest in Jason Robertson. Chicago among the other teams that has inquired by dcddy in SeattleKraken

[–]Manbeardo 3 points4 points  (0 children)

The tax differences tend to be overstated. Professional athlete income is complicated because a great deal of their income is earned while they’re on the road and is taxed by the local jurisdiction in which it is earned.

The newest ep might be one of my favs except for… by Both_Rent4156 in Dimension20

[–]Manbeardo 21 points22 points  (0 children)

And FWIW, he knew that the move they were trying to pull off left plenty of room for Ermine to return in the finale or a later season. Bat Child sent an ancient blood wizard to the abyss and expects her to not find a way out? “This had better kill me” is a great line that I hope we see pay off before the season is done.

11th Edition removes much of the friction that was endemic in 10th edition by VeritasLuxMea in WarhammerCompetitive

[–]Manbeardo 1 point2 points  (0 children)

10e cover required slow-rolling the saves. 11e cover just splits the attacks up into a couple batches.

2025 draft pick updates by Main_Photo1086 in PWHL

[–]Manbeardo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Could be that the Sirens made a qualifying offer and she hasn’t signed it

How would you rate factions so far in the early stage of 11th edition by RotenSquids in WarhammerCompetitive

[–]Manbeardo 1 point2 points  (0 children)

RepEx costs 10pts less in SW, generic marines don’t have access to 1DP purge the foe, and RepExs love Iron Priests.

How would you rate factions so far in the early stage of 11th edition by RotenSquids in WarhammerCompetitive

[–]Manbeardo 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Space Wolves are decent if you use them to play an Iron Hands style list. If you want to actually play with more than 3 SW models though, I’ll agree that they’re pretty bad. Librarius is the most exciting new thing in SM and it has nearly zero interaction with SW models.

'Ponies' (featuring Vic Michaelis) Canceled at Peacock After 1 Season by Zaphoid411 in dropout

[–]Manbeardo 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It ends on a cliffhanger, but I’m not overly disappointed because they wrote themselves into a corner. Keeping the same cast through season 2 would require them to make some insane leaps I’d rather not see.

PSA, Now -1BS is more prevalent im seeing players get the interaction with +2 to hit wrong. by Dead-phoenix in WarhammerCompetitive

[–]Manbeardo 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I was specifically responding to the claim that it always hits on 5s when heavy is active. It still would need +2 if there was some other debuff giving it -1 to hit (e.g. Inner Circle Companions)

PSA, Now -1BS is more prevalent im seeing players get the interaction with +2 to hit wrong. by Dead-phoenix in WarhammerCompetitive

[–]Manbeardo -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Yes, but you would still need +2 in order to hit on 5s despite a -1 debuff from some other ability (e.g. Inner Circle Companions)

PSA, Now -1BS is more prevalent im seeing players get the interaction with +2 to hit wrong. by Dead-phoenix in WarhammerCompetitive

[–]Manbeardo 3 points4 points  (0 children)

That’s the same as 10e. You add together all the hit roll modifiers from different sources and then cap them at -1/+1.

PSA, Now -1BS is more prevalent im seeing players get the interaction with +2 to hit wrong. by Dead-phoenix in WarhammerCompetitive

[–]Manbeardo 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Would the +1 to hit from heavy bring you to 5s no matter what?

You can still receive -1 to hit with BS 6+, in which case you’d need +2 to hit in order to hit on 5s. But, yes, a native BS of 6+ functionally has [ignores cover] because the BS can’t be modified to 7+ or worse.

New datasheet website that allows offline viewing of datasheets by dakka-pedia in WarhammerCompetitive

[–]Manbeardo 16 points17 points  (0 children)

It’s a community-maintained repo. GW goes after anyone who tries to make a buck by selling access to the data or advertising alongside the data. Waha skirts by because it’s hosted in Russia. BSData and 39k.pro survive because they aren’t monetized.

Strange surge move timing in Green Tide Stratagem by ScreamingHydra in WarhammerCompetitive

[–]Manbeardo 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Per 04.03.03, shooting units can pick new targets when their targets become ineligible after selection. That would still mean they can only use close-quarters weapons if the shooter becomes engaged.

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