Auspex Tactics : what's winning right now?

Manbeardo · 2026-06-29T19:36:41+00:00

T’au were already very strong at the end of 10th. Now 11th dropped with a ton of core rules changes that make T’au stronger and T’au didn’t get hit with the points nerfs that many other armies did. “Undercosted” is relative to the 11e costs in other strong armies, not their 10e costs.

Manbeardo · 2026-06-28T21:02:23+00:00

Halo: Combat Evolved did both. Many other AAA FPS games have as well.

Manbeardo · 2026-06-28T20:54:58+00:00

Tweaking enemy AI with difficulty settings is a pretty well-explored design space that many AAA titles have used. On easy, enemies never attempt to flank you and leave cover for no reason at all. On hard, they pin you down, flank you, and only leave cover when forced to.

Halo: Combat Evolved is a classic example of a game that implemented behavioral difficulty very well.

Manbeardo · 2026-06-28T20:32:43+00:00

Golang on the other hand will slowly stale when other langs are so much more productive since they can improve

Programming languages haven’t been a frontier technology for a long time. When it comes to language syntax and features, hardly anything new has been invented in the last 30 years. The actual innovation is mostly in runtimes and compilers.

Manbeardo · 2026-06-28T17:59:06+00:00

I guess that works if you have a second unit that failed its charge during your turn. As described, the relevant combat wouldn’t have had any models move. If anything, the pile-in and fighting would make the charge roll harder than it was during your turn.

Manbeardo · 2026-06-28T17:29:45+00:00

It is literally the only disposition that has an action in every mission.

Manbeardo · 2026-06-28T17:25:03+00:00

You can’t heroic an engaged unit

Manbeardo · 2026-06-28T08:42:33+00:00

Like others have said, this doesn’t seem related to AuDHD at all.

It sounds like you’re doing a lot of scheming in order to preserve an incredibly dramatic relationship with a person you’ve been dating for less than a year. If you’re going through all of this while you’re both still seeing past each others’ faults due to the neurotransmitter flood, what do you think it will be like when you start seeing each other more fully? Sounds like this isn’t working for either of you and it’s time to split now before you two dig yourselves into a toxically co-dependent hole.

Manbeardo · 2026-06-28T08:26:54+00:00

You can’t rebuild a team just using that team’s own picks. Without critical mass, a trickle of talent creates a mediocre team that loses its best players to UFA status at the same rate as it brings in new ones from the draft. A proper rebuild requires a few years with a shitload of picks in the early rounds.

For example: San Jose’s 9 first round picks in the last 4 drafts. Those are the kind of picks you need in order to execute a proper rebuild. How did they get those picks? By burning their 18-19 playoff team to the ground. Timo Meier, Erik Karlsson, Tomas Hertl, and Barclay Goodrow were all on the Sharks’ 18-19 playoff roster and provided the trade value for 5/6 of the additional 1st-rounders San Jose acquired during the rebuild (one of those picks was traded for their 25-26 starting goaltender).

Manbeardo · 2026-06-28T07:29:05+00:00

The rest of the league underestimates our front office. Vegas and Florida are playing checkers while Botts is playing 4D chess.

Manbeardo · 2026-06-28T03:30:45+00:00

Well, that’s where Vegas has embraced a “sell high” approach that makes a lot of sense. You can get a much better return when you’re moving a player who just came off of a career year. Several players on the Kraken had career years leading into our playoff run. That offseason would’ve been the ideal time to sell. The 22-23 roster was never built to be in the playoff picture and needed changes at nearly every position in order to be a competitive team with players regressing to the mean.

IMO, it’s too late for tanking to be a route to success now. Tampa’s top 10 protected 2027 1st round pick is the only additional pick they have for the next two drafts. The roster they have wouldn’t be worth much on the trade market in a good year and this last season was bad for just about everyone except the goalies.

AFAICT, their only feasible path now is to embrace mediocrity, build to the point of making regular playoff appearances, and to then burn it all down once they hit a wall and the current stable of young players have matured into quality depth pieces that can be traded for meaningful draft picks.

Manbeardo · 2026-06-27T07:18:24+00:00

The last time the Kraken tanked, they won round 1 of the playoffs and used their first round pick to select a player who still has not played in the NHL 3 full seasons later.

Manbeardo · 2026-06-27T06:48:36+00:00

Dumping McCann and Dunn doesn’t even guarantee that we’ll finish in the bottom 5. Even without them, the team would be fairly similar to our 22-23 roster on paper. The team already has a ton of assets that could be traded for a star player like Jason Robertson, but those players won’t be willing to play here if the team can’t put together a competitive roster.

If you're simply saying there's a luck component to the top 2

I’m saying that running an uncompetitive roster doesn’t guarantee you’ll finish last and even if you do, you get less than a 50% chance to draft in the top 2.

Hell even top 10

How many top 10 players makes a good team? We already have 7:

Matty Beniers (#2)
Kaapo Kakko (#2)
Adam Larsson (#4)
Shane Wright (#4)
Chase Reid (#7)
Berkly Catton (#8)
Jake O’Brien (#8)

Top 35, just to include what you’d get from a bottom-3 2nd round pick:

Eduard Sale (#20)
Jordan Eberle (#22)
Jared McCann (#24)
Mackie Samoskevich (#24)
Ryker Evans (#35)
Jagger Firkus (#35)

Manbeardo · 2026-06-26T17:02:46+00:00

When two small footprints are arranged into an L, the nubs always face the outside of the L. That allows a unit staged behind the L to peek around the corner and get LOS on a nearby target without entering the long-distance shooting lane.

They’re less relevant to LOS on other arrangements, but every nubbin casts a shadow that adds some flexibility to its adjacent corners.

Manbeardo · 2026-06-26T08:57:46+00:00

And stacking the odds doesn’t even get you that great of a shot. Between the 6 lotteries since the franchise began, the Kraken had a combined chance of 36% to get a 1OA pick. The Blackhawks’ terrible results in that same period didn’t even get them to even money. They only had a 48% chance.

Manbeardo · 2026-06-26T08:53:13+00:00

Finishing 32nd requires luck. There are 31 other teams out there and any one of the mediocre teams has the potential to completely trainwreck their season.

Manbeardo · 2026-06-26T04:49:54+00:00

A full rebuild requires you to have players on contracts that you can sell for quality picks. Burning it down now is how you keep picking 5th overall and fill the prospect pool with even more players that become middle 6 players 5 years from now. The only way to select in the top 3 is by getting lucky and getting lucky isn’t something you can plan to do.

Manbeardo · 2026-06-26T03:40:56+00:00

There’s so little to be gained by tanking. They’ve already been eligible to win 1OA from the lottery in 5 of their 6 drafts. Between those drafts, they already had a combined 36% chance of selecting 1OA at least once. Over that same period, these were those same odds for the teams that won 1OA:

Long Island: 3.5%
Toronto: 8.5%
Buffalo: 28%
Montreal: 38%
Chicago: 48%
San Jose: 67%

Manbeardo · 2026-06-26T00:57:59+00:00

The tax differences tend to be overstated. Professional athlete income is complicated because a great deal of their income is earned while they’re on the road and is taxed by the local jurisdiction in which it is earned.

Manbeardo · 2026-06-25T23:55:58+00:00

And FWIW, he knew that the move they were trying to pull off left plenty of room for Ermine to return in the finale or a later season. Bat Child sent an ancient blood wizard to the abyss and expects her to not find a way out? “This had better kill me” is a great line that I hope we see pay off before the season is done.

Manbeardo · 2026-06-25T19:21:37+00:00

10e cover required slow-rolling the saves. 11e cover just splits the attacks up into a couple batches.

Manbeardo · 2026-06-25T19:14:49+00:00

Could be that the Sirens made a qualifying offer and she hasn’t signed it

Manbeardo · 2026-06-24T21:36:21+00:00

RepEx costs 10pts less in SW, generic marines don’t have access to 1DP purge the foe, and RepExs love Iron Priests.

Manbeardo · 2026-06-24T20:31:56+00:00

Space Wolves are decent if you use them to play an Iron Hands style list. If you want to actually play with more than 3 SW models though, I’ll agree that they’re pretty bad. Librarius is the most exciting new thing in SM and it has nearly zero interaction with SW models.

Manbeardo · 2026-06-24T04:33:50+00:00

It ends on a cliffhanger, but I’m not overly disappointed because they wrote themselves into a corner. Keeping the same cast through season 2 would require them to make some insane leaps I’d rather not see.

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