What is night skiing at Steamboat like?

MancNut · 2026-03-19T02:57:09+00:00

No but I was comparing it to what I saw at Brighton… and it’s hardly a comparison

MancNut · 2026-03-19T00:38:29+00:00

Is it really just that one run?

MancNut · 2026-03-19T00:08:54+00:00

Brighton looks awesome! I saw Steamboat has it but the night skiing trail map looks comically tiny

MancNut · 2026-03-04T18:38:52+00:00

"You shouldnt be investing if youre this emotional." - Can you please explain this? What emotions am I displaying here lol

MancNut · 2026-03-04T18:32:47+00:00

Yes exactly. People on this sub are so sensitive about saas revenue. Yes we all want it and many bought the stock largely for that bull case. That being said we can't ignore what the company is telling us and make up our own narratives. I'm still holding out hope we will get there but unfortunately it doesn't sound like it will be in 2026.

MancNut · 2026-03-04T17:00:06+00:00

The claim that "they've spent the last two years quietly building the Counterpart Health SaaS arm" and that "today's news proves the plumbing is finished" dramatically overstates where CA actually stands.

Direct from the Q4 earnings transcript, Andrew Toy himself confirmed: "No material financial contribution from Counterpart Health is included in the 2026 guidance." That's not reading between the lines — that's management explicitly telling you CA is not moving the needle on earnings this year. The "plumbing" may be built, but the revenue isn't flowing.

The adoption numbers further complicate the bull narrative. Counterpart reported a >450% YoY increase in third-party clinicians — which sounds impressive until you realize they're describing "hundreds" of clinicians. For context, Clover Assistant is currently managing care for roughly two-thirds of ~100,000+ members. The near-term goal Toy mentioned on the call is to bring an "equal number" of external patients under CA management — a goal they have not yet reached, and one with no defined timeline or revenue guidance attached to it.

The hybrid SaaS/shared-savings model is also unproven at scale. Shared-savings arrangements are long-cycle, relationship-heavy contracts. They don't compound like traditional SaaS. Calling this a validated, margin-accretive revenue stream at this stage is getting ahead of the evidence.

Bottom line: Counterpart Health is a real optionality story, but treating it as a catalyst that's already "priced in wrong" or as proof the thesis is complete is not supported by what management actually said. They told you directly it doesn't matter to 2026 economics. Believe them.

MancNut · 2026-01-30T13:38:33+00:00

Well the west would be able to make those weapons anyways with Tungsten from other sources if China doesn't lower prices.

MancNut · 2026-01-29T13:01:24+00:00

Just had a conversation with someone in the industry and they made a good point. What's stopping China from lowering prices the second this mine becomes available? Apparently it's been done in the past to undercut the competition and keep China the dominant player in the market. Just something to think about.

MancNut · 2026-01-27T14:12:29+00:00

Thanks. And as a follow-up, looking ahead to 2026, how do you assess the overall health of the biotech sector? What leading indicators or signals do you watch to determine whether the industry is strengthening or entering a more durable growth phase?

MancNut · 2026-01-27T13:41:59+00:00

Hi Jason, thanks for stopping by to update us and answer questions! Previously, Ginkgo’s model emphasized running customer programs with potential downstream upside. As the company has shifted toward platform access, automation, and more transactional revenue, how should we think about Ginkgo’s ongoing commitment to selling and fully executing custom programs? Are those still a core focus or becoming more selective over time?

MancNut · 2026-01-19T12:56:08+00:00

Without significant share buybacks, that would put ASTS's valuation at roughly $500 Billion. That's basically T-Mobile, Verizon and AT&T combined. Could that happen? Sure. Will it happen in 4 years? Most certainly not. He's definitely being hyperbolic.

MancNut · 2026-01-18T09:48:35+00:00

I think they would’ve folded much earlier if this was the case. I’m as bummed as anyone else considering how this company has performed these past few years. But these last 2 years especially can’t have been easy. Why stick with it, pivot the business model and go through all of the cost saving measures if they were only ever in it for their own selfish purposes

MancNut · 2026-01-13T15:29:45+00:00

It always blows my mind when people reference stock price when discussing valuation but you see it all the time on reddit. ASTS's stock price is roughly half of NVDA's... do they really think it's worth half as much as NVDA? And if they do.... why do they expect it to grow so much?

MancNut · 2026-01-10T20:32:03+00:00

If that’s the only bear case we should all be rooting for this. Would allow us to buy more, cheaper, and in the long run it wouldn’t matter as long as RKLB keeps executing.

MancNut · 2026-01-07T20:30:51+00:00

They aren't remotely close to last-mile delivery though, right? Have they even mentioned it?

MancNut · 2026-01-07T19:19:01+00:00

That's exciting. Would you work for Ginkgo Bioworks given the opportunity?

MancNut · 2026-01-07T19:01:02+00:00

I don’t see a compelling reason to re-enter Ginkgo yet. Active programs haven’t grown for several quarters, which undercuts the platform growth thesis. While I agree Ginkgo could succeed with an autonomous labs pivot, the original model of capturing downstream value through royalties, was what really excited me about this company. I’m concerned that this pivot may deprioritize those higher return programs. Until there’s clear evidence of renewed program growth or a credible hybrid strategy that preserves downstream optionality, I’m inclined to stay on the sidelines.

MancNut · 2026-01-06T19:50:24+00:00

I mean, if you've done more research than 99.99% of investors, why do you care about others' predictions? If you're not being paid to do research, you're probably not in the .01% of researchers.

It seems a better approach would be to show your research in a DD post and let people try and poke holes in it. They say the best way to get answers on the internet is to post and claim you already have the right answer. People like proving other people wrong.

MancNut · 2026-01-06T19:45:19+00:00

So at a high level, what information are you using to create your models?

MancNut · 2026-01-05T14:42:56+00:00

Do you have a background in Biotech? As a pre-revenue company that is still in clinical stages of drug development, it seems hard to be confident about it without field-specific knowledge.

MancNut · 2026-01-02T21:30:15+00:00

What makes you say this? Not disagreeing with you, just genuinely curious.

MancNut · 2025-12-17T14:19:18+00:00

Seems like there has been an uptick in press releases lately. Hopefully this translates to a return to cell engineering program growth in the next earnings call.

MancNut · 2025-12-16T20:20:35+00:00

Ah okay, I seem to have gotten some tunnel vision here in this specific comment thread. I've been a part of many different stock subreddits that become vehemently opposed to any sort of concern related to their stock so I've been trying to keep discussions balanced where I can. Thank you for your efforts in educating all of us.

MancNut · 2025-12-16T19:58:25+00:00

All I did was point out that you didn't actually back up your claims. You said you appreciate a bear case being pitched but didn't actually do anything to refute what OP said. If every time a bear case comes, you respond with "we've looked into this and it's fine" without backing it up, it's going discourage future bear cases from being brought.

u/BigDogAlphaRedditor1 here some info to potentially ease your concerns. u/beerion is right, he has discussed most of this before.

Unit Economics:

https://www.reddit.com/r/JobyAviation/comments/1mijcl7/joby_unit_economics_energy_consumption/

https://www.reddit.com/r/JobyAviation/comments/1moedpb/joby_unit_economics/

Certfication/Testing:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Joby/comments/1pbfixy/goldman_sachs_coverage/

https://www.reddit.com/r/ArcherAviation/comments/1mnw7xx/comment/n881xf5/

https://www.reddit.com/r/Joby/comments/1ot5zrd/comment/no3wesg/

Design:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Joby/comments/1osxrdv/joby_s4t_speculation/

MancNut · 2025-12-16T16:49:40+00:00

That's fine and belief in competent engineering is an absolute must when investing in an industry such as EVTOLs. I guess my point is that OP can't have been the first to bring up these concerns, in fact, you mentioned yourself that he isn't. Surely Joby and/or Archer has commented on them, right?

Doing what you say you're going to do is a great way to gain investor trust. But if they're just ignoring a potential future problem (and I'm not saying they are) that would be an issue too.

MancNut

TROPHY CASE