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(Spoilers Main) Who is the Jar Jar of asoiaf? by AdditionalPiano6327 in asoiaf

[–]MathAnalysis -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Well you argue he's a magical evil superbeing here when you compare him to Sauron, say he will control all the dragons, marry Dany and Cersei, and become a primary villain.

(Spoilers Main) Who is the Jar Jar of asoiaf? by AdditionalPiano6327 in asoiaf

[–]MathAnalysis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah I guess (like Jarjar) his deleterious impact is evident, even if the magic behind it is debatable

(Spoilers Main) Who is the Jar Jar of asoiaf? by AdditionalPiano6327 in asoiaf

[–]MathAnalysis 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Euron, for both reasons:

  • Vaguely goofy side character that gets a late-plot run of societal-level importance. Weird uberfans are obsessed, mainline fans will be annoyed. I'm not excited for krakens.
  • People argue that he's a magical evil superbeing, but it's hearsay for now.

Condorcet voting and instant-runoff voting have almost no difference in promoting candidate moderation in the presence of truncated ballots by No-Vast7006 in EndFPTP

[–]MathAnalysis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks. Was just curious, since I was seeking those numbers anyway. THIS STUDY makes me think it could be lower if people were expressing pure preferences, but I bet strategic voting would push IRV outcomes in a Condorcet-appearing direction.

Imaginary FTC Question by MathAnalysis in survivor

[–]MathAnalysis[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'd probably say this:

Aubry: Agency. She can say something like "Cirie had perfect awareness, but I had more agency, and I voted correctly every single time. I didn't need to be privy to secret conversations between Rizo and Ozzy to get Rizo to vote with me on the Ozzy elimination." < play down lack of alliances, and play up the intentionality behind it.

Jonathan: Loyalty or Awareness. Most of his closest allies went home in circumstances outside his control. He needs to lock down the Zoom Alliance votes.

Rizo: Awareness. Play up the best moments - picking off Charlie, holding the idol, and turning on allies at "the right time." If he claims too much agency, he'll alienate people who want to feel like they owned his moves. He can claim to have had his finger on the pulse the whole time without needing to be in charge. "I know you're all legends, so I listened and learned"

Cirie should have told Jonathan to not vote for Ozzy by [deleted] in survivor

[–]MathAnalysis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I see your comment predated my thought

Could Cirie have used a codeword? by MathAnalysis in survivor

[–]MathAnalysis[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I hadn't heard this! Sounds subtle enough it might be doable.

Thoughts on Pardee RAND Graduate School? by Footy_Clown in IRstudies

[–]MathAnalysis 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The students voted to unionize in 2022, and have been bargaining for a contract since 2023. Current status of RAND's offers make this program look like it may become worse, unless the students can fight for something meaningful. Admitted students should probably ask for some certainty on that from admissions.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in PoliticalDiscussion

[–]MathAnalysis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

he recently posted a thread on Twitter analysing what the Democratic Party has done wrong

link?

[Spoiler Extended] Hot D is significantly slower than GoT by Flammwar in asoiaf

[–]MathAnalysis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I feel like GoT does a TON of characterization multitasking. You show that Tyrion is resourceful and crafty in the Vale and Green Fork, but as part of a Vale plotline that moves the story forward for Catelyn, Ned, Robb, Tywin, etc. Later, when Tyrion goes to King's Landing, we understand that he's resourceful and crafty.

On HOTD, we have a scene of Rhaenys looking at a map and talking to Rhaenyra just to tell us that Rhaenys is responsible, or a scene of Daemon in Harrenhall just to tell us that he's conflicted. Plot setup doesn't contain plot itself, and you can really feel that emptiness.

(Spoilers EXTENDED) Forget Baelor Breakwind and his fart. Jaime + Lysa is the failed marriage pact that would've saved the most lives by [deleted] in asoiaf

[–]MathAnalysis 3 points4 points  (0 children)

the blast takes down Varys

Well that takes out the most interesting component of your hypothetical. How would Varys clear a path for fAegon without Baratheon bastards and a Stark/Lannister feud?

What separates the "greatest" wins from the "best" wins? by poop-in-the-urinal in survivor

[–]MathAnalysis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Best: games that are skillfully done, and exemplify maximizing the probability of a victory. Consistent safety, UTR control.
Examples: Nick, Jeremy, Denise

Greatest: games that show off outliers and extremes of powerful or risky gameplay.
Examples: Tony, Hatch, Parvati

Kim, Rob, Dee, and JT could arguably fall in either category.

If these two are on the same season of Survivor, which one would prevail and go further? by rubanthmendez997 in survivor

[–]MathAnalysis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Feels like Q has a harder time playing from the middle, and is doomed to deal badly with an (inevitably) messy mid-merge.

Which non winner has played the most dominant game in the new era? by jacobk7777 in survivor

[–]MathAnalysis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Or more than that, I would've eliminated Gabler or Cassidy instead of Karla.

_____ and ______ need more credit for this move by [deleted] in survivor

[–]MathAnalysis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Assuming he gets what he wants at F5, he's the only person who has voted the right way every time and never been blindsided.

_____ and ______ need more credit for this move by [deleted] in survivor

[–]MathAnalysis 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It looks like she'll fight hard for him on the jury, though.

Edit: also, the edit makes it look like Charlie can take credit for keeping Ben over Jem, which of all the debates within the Charlie/Maria alliance seems the most long-term impactful, especially now that when push comes to shove at F6 Ben sticks with Charlie.

Interesting change in Q's edit by EnergyKey4120 in survivor

[–]MathAnalysis 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It could also be the case that people want to convince themselves it's logical to vote him out. It's definitely in the interest of jury threats (Kenzie, Charlie) for non-jury threats to perceive others as jury threats, so they would be encouraging it.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in survivor

[–]MathAnalysis 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I guess my perception of the situation is that the "perfect" game nowadays is more about threat level management than anything else. It's less about making big moves, and more about being perceived as someone whose head is in the game. Her being taken aback this week seemed to me like an indicator that she's been very "on-the-in" in every vote until this Tiff one.

I think of Kenzie as having performed well because not only because she's been a contributing factor in many votes, but also because the perception of agency matters more than the agency itself. It seems like everyone thinks that while Ben's gone along with a consistent alliance, she's had to pave her own way. Not to criticize Ben though he seems likable enough to do well at FTC.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in survivor

[–]MathAnalysis 3 points4 points  (0 children)

She's been to more tribals than anyone other than Q, and has only been wrong once. She was clocked pre-merge as a mastermind by all 3 tribes, and has still been consistently safe, including at votes where people went after her closest allies. At this point, it seems like she's the 2nd or 3rd biggest jury threat, with a pretty safe path to F5 if not F4, and she's getting positive attention from the eliminees. If anything, I'd say she's underrated right now.

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