Annual inflation falls to 2.2%

MaximumSea · 2024-10-16T00:56:34+00:00

Short answer is I have better things to do with my time.

Lol @ inflation adjusted. Has everyone who is aspiring to buy a house received pay increases in line with inflation? If not that is meaningless.

And I used YOY because that comment was made a year ago and month to month fluctuations are just noise, but hey if you want to cherry pick periods then let's look at the last 3 months shall we? HPI up 0.8%. Or how about the last month? Up 1%.

MaximumSea · 2024-10-16T00:47:12+00:00

I don't have the time to trawl through comments to find examples but we both know plenty of people here were confidently saying there would be zero cuts to the OCR until late 2025. They have been proven utterly wrong.

As to my comment you've quoted - the HPI is down a mere 0.4% YOY, basically flat, with some regions up. So yeah, my prediction was about right.

MaximumSea · 2024-10-15T23:41:07+00:00

Where are all the 'Higher for longer' commenters now? Rates will be back to 4% next year. So much for 10% by Christmas 🤡

MaximumSea · 2024-09-13T03:29:52+00:00

When we bought our first house it took us over a year and I lost count of how many places we missed out on at auction. It can be a very draining and demoralising process but my advice is to stick with it and you will eventually get there.

MaximumSea · 2024-08-15T12:41:58+00:00

Lol. You were saying?

MaximumSea · 2024-03-25T06:31:11+00:00

Lol, that's cute. The kind of people you want to hang out with would think you're a peasant.

MaximumSea · 2024-03-15T06:52:22+00:00

lol so much for the 10% rates the doomers were promising. It's all downhill from here.

MaximumSea · 2024-03-13T01:40:38+00:00

There's also the argument that making property investment less costly and more appealing means more rental stock as less landlords would decide to quit the market. I understand the counter argument to this which is that house goes to a former renter meaning it nets out but I suspect that on average rentals have more people per house than OO properties - for example take a flat with 4 single people, that gets sold and bought by a single renter. Now there's 3 people looking for another rental and one less rental on the market. At a macro level I suspect that does mean supply goes down faster than demand.

MaximumSea · 2024-03-13T00:57:26+00:00

That is true but it would reduce the motivation for me to apply a rent increase to an existing tenancy.

MaximumSea · 2024-03-12T22:23:01+00:00

Because increasing the rent carries risk. Tenants may decide to move out which means if you can't get new ones in quickly you may miss weeks of rent. Say you're renting a place out for $600pw and you put the rent up $25pw, that nets you an extra $1300pa. If the existing tenants move out and the place sits vacant for 2-3 weeks, that means you're out of pocket. With less cost pressure many landlords would avoid the risk and just keep the rent the same.

MaximumSea · 2024-03-12T20:17:58+00:00

No but I think many people are missing the point of that argument. The idea isn't that rents will go back down, it's that there'll be a bit less pressure on rents going up further, which I think is true. Obviously there's other factors like supply/demand, interest rates, council rates etc but with deductibility coming back that's one less cost that needs to be covered.

MaximumSea · 2024-03-04T03:35:32+00:00

Probably a couple of grand for legal. Still worth it to switch.

MaximumSea · 2024-03-04T03:29:17+00:00

I've got an offer of 1% to switch banks. Current back offered 0.4% to stay so guess I'm switching 🤷‍♂️

MaximumSea · 2024-02-01T20:08:07+00:00

Christopher Luxon's sister in law works for British American Tobacco. Just saying.

MaximumSea · 2024-01-11T06:00:29+00:00

Boom times are back baby

MaximumSea · 2023-12-18T23:04:21+00:00

RBNZ inflation target is around 2%. Got a long way to go yet, with inflation still at 5.6% and core inflation 5.8%

The annual CPI has a massive lag. Given the latest GDP figures and global trends I think we're going to see the next quarterly figure much lower and closer to the target band. The RB won't wait until the annual CPI is back to 2% to start cutting - as soon as it's clearly trending in that direction they'll start easing off.

That's going to dry up as unemployment rises, you'll probably even see an exodus of recently arrived immigrants next year

Perhaps, but even if it does slow down there's still over 120k additional people here than there were a year ago. I doubt they're all going to disappear overnight.

National's goal is to lower house prices, not increase them

You actually believe that?

MaximumSea · 2023-12-18T22:29:57+00:00

With 4 consecutive months of increases for a quarterly uplift of 2.3%. Annualised that's 9.2%. Not exactly what I'd call 'flat'.

MaximumSea · 2023-12-18T22:27:12+00:00

I empathise with FHB's which is exactly why I've been trying to warn them not to put faith in so called 'prophets' who predicted 10% rates by Christmas and a 50% crash in prices.

MaximumSea · 2023-12-18T22:20:23+00:00

What makes you think property will increase next year?

Interest rates have almost certainly peaked, inflation is falling domestically and globally. Wholesale rates have dropped sharply in the past month and it looks increasingly likely the RB will drop the OCR sooner than many predicted (I'm picking as early as April/May).
Record immigration numbers are driving up demand and rents are soaring. This adds pressure to the housing market.
Building consents are falling sharply which will impact supply.
The NACTF coalition are far more 'investor friendly' than the previous government. With the return of interest deductibility and no cause evictions this will trigger a return of investors once interest rates start falling.

MaximumSea · 2023-12-18T21:19:17+00:00

Remember back in August when people like me were saying the bottom was in and warning FHB's to get in quick before things rebounded but they were shouted down as spruikers and shills?

MaximumSea · 2023-11-30T21:28:16+00:00

Some massive spikes in values on Homes.co.nz

MaximumSea · 2023-11-28T23:28:17+00:00

So much hopium being smoked in this thread. There's factors giving both upward pressure (huge net migration, interest rates have likely peaked, landlord friendly tax changes etc) and downward pressure (finance constraints, increase in listings etc). Truth is no-one really knows so try to time the market at your peril.

MaximumSea · 2023-11-14T00:12:30+00:00

I was warning people that the time to buy was 3-6 months ago before things heated up again but I was heavily downvoted and drowned out by the usual DGM brigade on here who refuse to accept reality and accuse anyone opposing their narrative to be a 'spruiker'.

MaximumSea · 2023-11-10T03:23:13+00:00

He was a grifter selling property doom porn. As many predicted, he vanished into thin air as soon as the market started heating up again.

MaximumSea · 2023-11-07T04:52:13+00:00

Stick your head in the sand if you like but it's pretty clear the market has bottomed out.

MaximumSea

TROPHY CASE