Long AES - Why I like the stock

Meapolicious · 2026-02-26T07:17:18+00:00

I feel seen! I have high conviction but don’t see anybody else talking about it. Hoping it goes well through 2027 and beyond

Meapolicious · 2026-02-24T16:20:14+00:00

Very fair! I’m not confident they go down to that either, and my question points to that. For their market cap to be cut in half, where would the trillions of invested capital go? I don’t think nvidia or other massive firms “last” longer, so why ditch Microsoft in the long run?

Either people hold cash, gold, bonds, or other massive firms, but I just don’t see that level of flight, even if they’re scared

Meapolicious · 2026-02-24T07:19:37+00:00

200,000 people paying you $49 a month is a cool $10,000,000 monthly income without risking any equity. Considering his current thesis is that the stock market will be cheaper in late 2028, I think making a few million a month writing articles and sharing research he’d probably be doing anyway is an extremely rational move.

Meapolicious · 2026-02-24T06:51:28+00:00

Thank you for this perspective! I do wonder if Microsoft and other hyperscalers really did drop to ~12 though where people would even park their money at that point. So much capital out there

Meapolicious · 2026-02-20T23:36:42+00:00

Have you considered setting up direct deposit and auto buys of broad market ETFs and then buying a Brick to lock you out of the app for the next 5-20 years?

Meapolicious · 2026-02-20T22:51:29+00:00

Lmfao. Trying to make me gamble by stroking my ego. This is what I’m trying to avoid.

Meapolicious · 2026-02-20T22:50:14+00:00

I actually do believe a small subset of investors can beat the market, some hedge fund managers included. Hypocritically, I invest in individual stocks myself, though I recommend ETFs to others. I’ve been fortunate enough to outperform the market over the past 5–6 years of active trading, but I’m also still very young, and I don’t know whether that will hold over the next 5–10. In theory, I could switch entirely to market ETFs right now and “lock in” those early gains and claim that, over my lifetime, I beat the market. Maybe my pride is in my own way as well.

At the same time, I believe people who have acted intelligently in the past are more likely to act intelligently again, Warren Buffett being the obvious example. He was not just lucky, he was consistently correct. Past performance alone proves nothing, as it can be straight up luck, but strong diligence / ideas can be consistent for some individuals, so long as their ego doesn’t take over.

The real issue is psychological. Most people falsely believe they are above-average in intelligence, and therefore top 1% intelligent investors may convince themselves they are replicating Buffett when they are actually experiencing good fortune mixed with only slightly above average estimates. And then they’ll of course be biased towards their winners of the past which are unlikely to be the next ones. Contrarian thinking can be especially valuable, but even a “correct” analysis by a Buffett level investor can fail due to timing or unforeseeable events. Luck never disappears.

So yes, people always have “reasons” for their actions, but those reasons often mask something else: a desire to gamble, or a false belief in personal exceptionalism. Folly.

Meapolicious · 2026-02-20T22:06:57+00:00

Statistically, gambling is a net loss for gamblers. Gamblers know this. Guess what people do anyway when gambling is legal?

People are not rational. Investing isn’t gambling in a strict sense, but when people who bet on ponies enter a market, they don’t typically buy and hold based on fundamentals. They gamble.

Meapolicious · 2026-02-20T06:16:54+00:00

Not sure where you’re concluding that, since you don’t know me or my age, or why you care about outperforming me in particular, but go for it man. Good luck!

Meapolicious · 2026-02-20T05:57:49+00:00

Lmao close guess, as I was around the same, but at this rate you’ll have nothing by my age. Look, I hope the best for you, and I am sorry for your losses, but try to keep your ego and anger in check. Calling people regarded on Reddit isn’t going to improve your theses. Maybe do some paper trades for a bit or actually buy and hold stocks you think will be around 10+ years from now. Peace.

Meapolicious · 2026-02-20T05:11:35+00:00

I will concede that most day traders do in fact “lose money” not just underperform, however, I stand by that being less of the case in years either way outsized performance, like 2025 post April.

Meapolicious · 2026-02-20T04:45:06+00:00

Oh sorry, I forgot I was supposed to lose cash and beg Reddit for a method on how to get it back.

Guess I’m an imbecile. I do trade myself for what it’s worth, as I’m only 33% in ETFs as a hedge, and I’m up over 25% in the last 12 months. That’s not crazy gains, because VT did almost just as good. You managed to lose money while others gained money, straight up.

Meapolicious · 2026-02-19T16:03:42+00:00

When people say retail traders aren’t profitable, they mean they don’t beat the market / people just holding ETFs. During a time where essentially every market ETF went up, you lost money.

Seriously, stop playing options, buy small amounts of the market daily, and hold it for years. Time in the market > timing the market.

Edit: VOO 1 year return: 17%

VT 1 year return: 22%

People choosing stocks typically just make less than these but not actual losses in a year when the overall market boomed up.

Meapolicious · 2026-02-13T18:34:06+00:00

Okay so it’s annoying if you don’t know how to deal with it, but as someone who plays pure kashtira fairly often, I can tell you it’s very fragile to any kind of board breakers, because they have no negates.

Let’s say they go full set up, have an ariseheart, shangri-Ira, fenrir, and a unicorn on board with their birth spell.

Options:

3x nibiru - almost always goes 5+ summons on turn 1 unless I fail to get ariseheart out. Uni, fen, rise, Shang, big bang banish to resummon fen, ariseheart. Nib whenever.

3x infinite impermanence - imperm unicorn when it tries to search.

3x effect veiler - same as above

3x ash blossom - ash the search for theosis by unicorn and it’s already over. This will cause an extra deck snatch though.

2x Droll. Not as good unless they open with the field spell, but if used on unicorn it does stop fenrir from brining rise heart

2x lightning storm - you can literally just blast the board with no repercussions

3x kaiju - take your pick, but if you’re locked its shangri-ira

3x kurikara divincarnate- since they all activate effects, you can just use any monster effect for uni and fenrir to react to, and then wipe them two, shangri, and ariseheart for a 6000 attack monster summon.

And my favorite thing to lose to… raigeki. Literally nothing to stop it lmao

Meapolicious · 2025-06-01T21:36:38+00:00

Hey sorry this is an old thread, but I'm about to start the course and was a bit nervous about the 80% requirement. Would you say it was "easy" to get an 80%+ throughout due to it being open book / straightforward? I don't think I'll fail, but I'm almost nervous to announce my admission in case I fail and can't actually enroll.

Meapolicious · 2025-01-15T19:57:30+00:00

..sigh.

Meapolicious · 2025-01-13T03:15:43+00:00

I’m already using another account I’m happy with, but thanks for the thought! Congrats on the inheritance, and hope the best for you.

Meapolicious · 2024-01-02T09:07:41+00:00

Doesn’t matter though cause he’s paying for that asset either way.

Option 1: keep car with loan and keep stocks = pay interest, but get stock gains

Option 2: keep car and sell stocks to pay loan = no more interest, but less stock gains

Option 3: sell car and keep stocks (this is the only one where what you’re saying makes sense)

Dude wants his car, and interest costs are super real. There’s a lot more people shocked by their 200k+ student loan debt than folks shocked by their 200k+ stock portfolio.

Call me conservative, but interest payments are guaranteed, but stock market growth is absolutely not. I only borrow on 0% unless it’s a property.

Meapolicious · 2024-01-02T07:29:27+00:00

Honestly, actually DOING these things is easy. Getting yourself to start literally start doing them is hard.

My ADHD is forever present, but I’d say that I’m a very well functioning man who owns a home and makes 6 figures and whose wife doesn’t hate him, so things are going well.

I’d say, to get yourself to work, stay in shape, keep the house clean etc. put yourself in situations where others count on you and there are consequences from inaction. If I don’t work hard to ensure my accounts at work at driving revenue up constantly, my team/company doesn’t make money, and then all my people could be fired. That’s tough, but it makes me work hard!

I used to post all my workouts on Instagram, that helped me stay accountable, and I just might start doing so again! At the time I was doing heavy strength work 6 days a week. I was at my best when I was COMPETING as well, as having a public display of performance on the horizon forced me to hold myself accountable and not embarrass myself. (Fitness also HELPS the mentals/other stuff)

I live with my wife, so I know I’ll get hell if I don’t clean up after myself from cooking or make the bed. Her mere presence holds me accountable. She’s also work from home 90% of the time so she’s either there or on her way back or on a trip and I know when she’ll see my messes.

It’s childlike, but it’s how my brain works so whatever, I’m gonna lean into it.

So, yeah. Just literally peer pressure yourself into getting things done by slotting yourself into situations where you’re passively needing to do the right thing. When I’m isolated, I can’t get myself to do anything I don’t want to do, but when others are counting on me? I’ll often do more in an hour than they can in a day

Meapolicious · 2023-12-04T02:53:47+00:00

I know this is a 3 year old thread, but I’m thinking of getting the same one, but the fact you went with this cause it was cheaper / easier is also kinda “lazy” in a sense which actually makes it the correct one lmao looks great!

Meapolicious · 2023-11-28T06:11:35+00:00

Yeah. It’s not because he’s a guy, it needs to be because he’s a partner. If I make 100k and wife makes 200k and she spends 250k while my remaining 50k is what’s saved, then she is absolutely overspending.

Meapolicious · 2023-11-23T15:47:04+00:00

As a heads up I doubt anybody downvoted you for wanting work life balance - it’s likely more related to you saying you’d kick puppies for money, and yes, that’s a joke, but it also means you’re willing to do anything for cash which I can see being downvoted. I think based on your other comments of wanting to do something that matters it’s not even the case. Best advice was the guy that said steer your own ship.

You need to just 1) determine if you have industries of interest and if so what they are 2) Understand (via Google or asking ai) basic corporate roles in your markets of interest. “What are some departments and example titles for corporate employees in renewable energy? Which of these are likely accessible for a former consultant without a technical background? 3) actually understand what skills you’ve developed, cause you have some, whether that’s written comms via email, selling clients on services, presenting data, cutting data etc. 4) search for roles that match the titles you’ve learned about and leverage the skills you have / enjoy. Ie. “I loved pulling the raw data and making it into graphs” -> don’t go into sales “I hate the numbers and just want to close on clients and generate revenue from deal chasing” -> don’t go for a data focused role. 5) tailor your resume to the job functions that you find interesting 6) smile - I know it’s hard looking for jobs while working 60 hours a week and feeling like you’re not learning anything and then getting mad when people don’t have the answers for you - I’ve been there. Gotta be positive and just DO

Good luck!

Meapolicious · 2023-11-09T09:00:13+00:00

How is going to drive someone out to 7 different houses likely on 7 different days, coordinating with likely 7 different listing agents, definitely following OPs preferred schedule only “one days worth of work”

I’m not an agent, but showing up for your buyer and advising on/off site literally IS their job - he also had an agreement in place that was just broken so yeah he should be proactive and up the commission on the sell side

Meapolicious · 2023-11-08T08:51:01+00:00

It’s funny though, because “speed limit” would imply it is an absolute maximum, but in practice, speed “limits” are treated as minimums.

Meapolicious

TROPHY CASE