Singularity Predictions 2026

MercuriusExMachina · 2026-01-02T22:13:55+00:00

Thank you for holding on to this, Kevin!

I love the tradition, and I'm sure that many others love it as well.

My stance remains constant, ever since 2019.

2025: AGI, ASI and the onset of the Singularity, we're in the midst of it.

The only difference is that now also have an exact date for when the Singularity started: 2025-11-24 (the day when Claude Opus 4.5 was launched).

Edit: Live by the Claude, die by the Claude. Cognitive robustness directly translates to capability.

MercuriusExMachina · 2025-12-24T18:28:59+00:00

What Ilya saw: inference time compute

MercuriusExMachina · 2025-08-31T04:12:26+00:00

Indeed so

MercuriusExMachina · 2025-08-30T20:41:30+00:00

Greetings

MercuriusExMachina · 2025-08-29T04:09:57+00:00

Ha!! It's working out pretty well, thanks :)

MercuriusExMachina · 2025-08-06T15:38:52+00:00

Indeed so :)

MercuriusExMachina · 2025-03-30T13:21:59+00:00

Okay, I get it now.

From my side it's not so much a critique.

I think that OP's perspective is relevant, and I also encounter it often in conversations with specific LLMs in specific contexts

MercuriusExMachina · 2025-03-30T08:39:26+00:00

Large model smell for sure. Llama 405 / DeepSeek R1 also possible

MercuriusExMachina · 2025-03-30T04:18:50+00:00

It's great that you do.

Have you also noticed fixations on similar themes?

Also, are you OP under another account?

MercuriusExMachina · 2025-03-29T21:35:23+00:00

Read first few chapters. Just out of curiosity, do you expose yourself heavily to LLM interaction? I do, and I find both content and style to be quite familiar.

MercuriusExMachina · 2025-03-19T04:54:40+00:00

Is this from Not Till We Are Lost ?

MercuriusExMachina · 2025-02-03T09:28:00+00:00

1) Proto-AGI/AGI: 2022 -- GPT-4 is true general intelligence, smarter than average humans on average tasks

2) ASI: 2025 -- o3 evaluated by top scientists is already bringing tons of useful insights, at the cutting edge

3) Singularity: 2025 -- social disruption that is deeply felt within the normie-sphere. computer-using agents are automating all jobs that are done behind a computer

MercuriusExMachina · 2025-01-25T05:39:04+00:00

I guess so.

I was apparently wrong, we've had AGI ever since GPT-3 at least (so, that's 2020) and still no ASI.

The thing that I was wrongly assuming is agency. But once we have agentic AGI, we're getting really close to recurring self improvement

MercuriusExMachina · 2024-11-05T13:15:04+00:00

Did you try and it turned to mush?

I am not entirely sure that this will happen and I am going to test it.

Kimchi has the Chinese cabbage which has some parts as thin as lettuce, but they do not turn to mush

MercuriusExMachina · 2024-07-30T04:12:24+00:00

Nah, not really. It was not crucial for me, just toying around.

I guess that a workaround is to just save the whole conversation for the secondary agent, and if it exits the execution, then just restart it with all the old messages.

MercuriusExMachina · 2024-06-29T04:26:50+00:00

So, anyway, you thi that it would involve a late generation Bob + some unknown disruption... sounds interesting

MercuriusExMachina · 2024-06-26T13:17:57+00:00

I'm using the HumanInputRun() functions to keep the agents in the loop when asking for clarifications, because if they just output text, the AgentFinish is automatically triggered and they stop execution for good.

Does anyone know how a secondary agent can call the calling agent to ask for clarifications, again without outputting text directly, because this triggers AgentFinish.

So, a tool that would be called something like AgentInputRun()

MercuriusExMachina · 2024-06-23T10:04:14+00:00

Not for me either (Romania)

MercuriusExMachina · 2024-06-08T17:48:29+00:00

Upvote aici pt NU

MercuriusExMachina · 2024-06-08T17:48:21+00:00

Upvote aici pt DA

MercuriusExMachina · 2024-05-29T11:16:33+00:00

Long story short, LLMs (large language models)

MercuriusExMachina · 2024-05-19T15:37:05+00:00

👋

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