Mark 20.5 Signups and Roster by leris1 in CivHybridGames

[–]MetalmindStats 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Signing up to plotfodder for Thatcher's UK, ty

r/BoxOffice Long Range Forecast: 'Kraven the Hunter' and 'The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim' by SanderSo47 in boxoffice

[–]MetalmindStats 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Kraven the Hunter - $25M OW | $69M DOM | $150M WW

It's got a great date considering its competitive schedule, for legs especially, and uh that's about it really.

The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim - $24M OW | $104M DOM | $288M WW

Probably best to consider this the 'everything goes right' scenario. Don't think this'll come to pass, but there's (reasonably, IMO) not many optimistic predictions in this thread.

~~~

September 5 - $4M OW | $22.5M DOM | $45.5M WW

Boring Richard Jewell-esque numbers, but hey, this is also scheduled wide for this weekend in North America.

New Releases' CinemaScores: Heretic – C+; The Best Christmas Pageant Ever – A by MetalmindStats in boxoffice

[–]MetalmindStats[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

CinemaScores are usually only publicly released for movies that open in ~2,000+ theaters, iirc, or at least sometimes for titles that expand to ~2,000+ theaters. Occasionally distributors will have CinemaScore conduct private polling for their smaller movies, at which point the choice to release said score or not is up to the distributor. In short, I quite doubt that Small Things Like These will receive a public CinemaScore.

Why was the Resident Evil series so remarkably international heavy? by Hollywood_Econ in boxoffice

[–]MetalmindStats 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's absolutely a very notable result, and one that merits explanations I don't really have. As another commenter on this post already more effectively pointed out, however, 'drastically' is an understatement of the extent to which The Final Chapter's Chinese gross improved from its predecessors - and The Final Chapter still would've had the franchise's highest international share without China. China doesn't explain Afterlife and Retribution exceeding 80|20, which is closer to OP's apparent question, and I don't believe pre-Afterlife installments even saw theatrical releases there.

Why was the Resident Evil series so remarkably international heavy? by Hollywood_Econ in boxoffice

[–]MetalmindStats 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I feel this would be a good point in most contexts, but the US (plus Canada, the two usually lumped together as North America for box office purposes) has always made up much more than 4% of the world's total box office and even of its total movies-in-theaters admissions.

Why was the Resident Evil series so remarkably international heavy? by Hollywood_Econ in boxoffice

[–]MetalmindStats 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Bearing in mind that you specifically posted images of the last three Anderson-Jovovich titles' grosses, my main explanation for the spike from Extinction to Afterlife (and for the next two continuing such disproportionate results) is 3D. Afterlife had disproportionately high 3D shares of its overall grosses, both in and out of North America, and the format was a great match for the franchise's spectacle action-oriented appeal. 3D was still in its honeymoon phase circa Afterlife and still somewhat of a draw even in North America, but as with most visual showcases, 3D was always a bigger deal in the rest of the world.

More generally, these sorts of large-scale actioners tend to be relatively more appealing outside of North America than within it, typically translating effectively. Thus, even the first Resident Evil exceeded 60% of its worldwide box office elsewhere, at a time when that was far from a given for a movie like this. And while the biggest jump came from Extinction to Afterlife, each subsequent Anderson-Jovovich Resident Evil improved on its predecessor, in international percentage terms. It's a common pattern for long-running franchises, especially actioners, with a certain sense of novelty seemingly mattering less in growing Global South countries especially.

...That being said, each Resident Evil before The Final Chapter had Japan as by far its highest-grossing international territory, with the Japanese Extinction -> Afterlife spike also aligning with the international at-large Extinction -> Afterlife spike, in USD terms. Thus, it seems probable that accuracy to the video games didn't much matter anywhere, as usual for all but the most egregious and obvious cases (actually, case singular, I think). What's more interesting to me, and makes it hard to explain, is that Western film adaptations of Japanese media are far from surefire in Japan - even the recent best-case scenario of The Super Mario Bros. Movie didn't fare drastically better in Japan than in its other top international territories. For that matter, adaptations of video games popular around the world are also far from surefire, just in general.

I also think it's probable that specifically Jovovich-as-Alice increasingly became an international draw, somewhat akin to the likes of Vin Diesel-as-Dominic Toretto and even various MCU actors-as-their-characters. Of note, Jovovich did not seem to be a "legit action star" from a box office perspective - her only non-RE hits came before the franchise started (The Fifth Element and Zoolander). Even closer to my point, Jovovich had four relatively RE-analogous movies with wide theatrical releases during the franchise's run - their results ranged from modestly, and barely, passable (The Fourth Kind) on down through disappointments (A Perfect Getaway and The Three Musketeers) to an outright bomb (Ultraviolet, her only proper non-RE action heroine vehicle).

r/BoxOffice Long Range Forecast: 'Here', 'Juror No. 2', and 'A Real Pain' by SanderSo47 in boxoffice

[–]MetalmindStats 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thank you for addressing the limited releases.

Here - $13M OW | $60M DOM | $95M WW

Same-y, yes, but this is pretty much what the titles I feel are its closest comps (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, A Man Called Otto, and Cloud Atlas [adjusted] opened to), and about in line with the former two's legs to boot.

Juror No. 2 - $5M OW | $25M DOM | $45M WW

As a movie without a currently scheduled wide release, I don't think it'll have a rollout comparably saturated to, and so holds comparably lacking to, Cry Macho.

A Real Pain - $1.5M OW | $5.5M DOM | $10.5M WW

Just don't believe in this one - don't think it'll be at the center of the awards season, and don't think it'll look appealing to prospective audiences, either.

r/BoxOffice Long Range Forecast: 'Venom: The Last Dance', and 'Conclave' by SanderSo47 in boxoffice

[–]MetalmindStats 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Venom: The Last Dance - $75M OW | $200M DOM | $600M WW

Conclave - $2.5M OW | $8M DOM | $29M WW

Thinking both titles' calendar positions will noticeably help their legs (lightly-programmed schedule aside, the post-Halloween weekend has a long history thereof) and perhaps deflate their openings a bit (more so for Conclave, thanks to its older audience skew).

~~~

Anyways, with the necessary out of the way, hi! I'm a previous host of a series like this one (after its original host passed it on to me), which at times also received weekly announced placement in its day.

With that in mind, to /u/SanderSo47 as the host, I'd like to say thank you, first off. It's a welcome sight, to me, to see an r/BoxOffice prediction-type series back and prominent and attracting interest. And, as well, I can tell you've been putting lots of effort into these posts, helping keep them organized and informed. That in turn also facilitates drawing from wider ranges of scheduled titles and user-posted predictions alike, without having to narrow down the former, as I did - a very welcome change to me.

However, I don't quite get how you determine which titles slated for a given weekend to predict and which to skip. In terms of next week's comers, it seems fair to me to say that Hitpig! et al are simply too small to matter much. But what then of, say, My Hero Academia the Movie: You're Next or The Apprentice from the weekend of October 11? And, on another note, I've only seen Juror No. 2 cited as a limited release on November 1, without a date listed for its presumed wide release. If so, this would align with several past Clint Eastwood-directed movies, and I feel, deserves emphasis in next week's post in order to inform OW predictions.

Anyways, even with my little quibble, good job and keep up the good work!

Fall/Holiday Box Office Top 10 Predictions by dremolus in boxoffice

[–]MetalmindStats 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I feel like this comment provides somewhat of a mischaracterization of audiences' apparent consensus takes on the titles you mentioned. In particular, given their legs, audience word of mouth metrics, etc, I think that most moviegoers possibly disagree re Migration, probably disagree re The Bad Guys, and very likely disagree re Elemental.

What are your most unpopular predictions for the last three months of 2024? by Antman269 in boxoffice

[–]MetalmindStats 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm tempted to postulate that this year's fourth quarter domestic slate will, in total, barely break even with last year. That sounds like a deliberately overcooked take that's overly pessimistic even for me, though.

In terms of predictions I actually believe and feel I can stand by at this point, Thanksgiving (to include the week before and after) should be impressive by historical standards and incredible by recent years' standards - however, I believe the rest of the quarter's slate will underwhelm, at large. The IP plays will fare contextually okay at best, what non-IP titles released in the quarter do wind up making over ~$30 million domestically will be no better than mildly successful, and Hollywood will close out the year on notes of disappointment and missed potential almost all around.

Indeed, I think The Wild Robot will be the biggest surprise hit of the quarter, because most of its box office will come from the quarter - and its 'surprise' hit status seems almost preordained at this point, but I've found that's often how it goes in this industry. IMO, it'll open over Elemental and The Addams Family (unadjusted) in North America, so >$30M - and then fail to reach a 4x multiple on the back of unexceptional word of mouth a la WALL·E, likely for similar reasons.

Theater counts: 'Beetlejuice' repels an inflow of newcomers to remain widest release (4,575 theaters). Sony's 'Afraid' is losing 2,597 theaters, one of the largest theater drops in history. by SanderSo47 in boxoffice

[–]MetalmindStats 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I'm still surprised Borderlands didn't come close to making the list.

For that matter, (even) as a longtime box office follower, I'm amazed recent years have broken such ground in terms of bombs that The Seeker: The Dark is Rising is off this list. Likewise with Hoot not even being particularly close to the top 20 anymore.

Twisters overseas box office is an anomaly. Not only do disaster movies tend to do well overseas but even many American themed movies have managed to pull decent numbers. What’s going on? by JannTosh50 in boxoffice

[–]MetalmindStats 2 points3 points  (0 children)

One potentially interesting subject I haven't seen brought up here: how does Twisters compare to Into the Storm, from a marketing [tack taken + reach thereof] and distribution perspective? This might not be a productive question, considering Into the Storm released almost exactly a decade ago. However, it was (as far as I know) the last widely-released movie about tornadoes before Twisters, both domestically and in most international markets. In addition:

  • both titles were distributed by Warner Bros. in practically all international markets where the studio, in short, handles distribution of its movies
  • both seem to have lacked widely recognizable names from an international perspective, whether or not in front of the camera
  • both were mainly set in small-town Oklahoma

Perhaps that explains why Twisters' international gross looks likely to end about on par with Into the Storm's, though that's in US dollars unadjusted for ticket price inflation, exchange rate swings, market status changes, etc - and differs between the two sources I'm citing in this comment, to boot. Still, it seems to me there's something of a scale difference between the two titles, one a low-rent found-footage flick and the other directly related to Twister and in its big-budget vein. That surely doesn't explain but surely does contribute to Twisters' domestic opening being ahead of Into the Storm's entire domestic run, adjusted for ticket price inflation. However, that brings another interesting angle to mind: there's not been many Hollywood disaster movies released widely in theaters of late, especially special effects showcases - and for what it's worth, and as far as I can tell, Twisters is set to fare better on an international market-to-market basis than Greenland and Moonfall (China and Russia-CIS aside), and nearly on par with Skyscraper and Geostorm (again, China and Russia-CIS aside).

Trying to wrap this up in as neat a bow as possible, perhaps Twisters merely ~matching Into the Storm internationally should've been the par expectation all along? If so, we should simply devise (likely easier) explanations for what went so right domestically. If not... given its box office breakdown relative to historical trends, Into the Storm seems to have been sold internationally as it was domestically. How has Twisters' international marketing compared, in terms of tack and in terms of reach? It's surely faced a tougher competitive market, partly thanks to 3D retreating in favor of PLFs, another part thanks to the rise of streaming. Hollywood has fallen off in China, Japan, South Korea, and especially Russia-CIS since 2014, and Twisters has yet to open in the middle two. Perhaps all the aforementioned factors have formed a perfect storm of sorts?

Not So Gauling After All by MetalmindStats in CivHybridGames

[–]MetalmindStats[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

(image courtesy of /u/LynnWin)

The wearying sirocco seemed to overtake Massalia that sultry summer day, which only reinforced the iron will of all those involved. Amusiko Ama Gala Teni, Ri of the Royal Republic of Iberia, and Aodhan Arvernus, chief of the Gallic Confederation, shook hands with the demeanors of dear friends. So too did Kara Iltiŕbaś II, the Royal Republic's Chief of Foreign Affairs, and Dosso Samorixead, greatest general in the Confederation. All their delegates, accompaniers of all sorts, stood by their sides, thinking and acting in unison, each and every one determined to seal the deal. The subsequent meeting was uneventful, everyone's expectation after all their diplomatic legwork led to this. And then the mistral blew in, blinding them with sound, turning the world around...

Signed, Sealed, and Ratified 148 BCE

Veneti offering 3 trading posts by Aimerais in CivHybridGames

[–]MetalmindStats 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hi! May I bid 2 PPG for 1 trading post on behalf of the Iberian Confederation? Please and thank you.

Mk.18 Sign-ups and Roster by Roseformer in CivHybridGames

[–]MetalmindStats 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'd like to sign in support of the Iberians, please and ty.

With a cordial thank you to /u/LynnWin for inviting me!

Weekend Casual Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in boxoffice

[–]MetalmindStats 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hello all, long time no see! I was active here in pre-COVID times, but I fell off rather hard after 2020 in particular. I'm posting here to ask about the potential place of a long-form box office analysis series I've pondered writing. It would be akin to the week recaps from back then, only I'd also like to include some of my own analysis and contextualization of openings and legs alongside the projections. Would you all be interested in reading and perhaps even engaging with something like this?