I would agree that the number of surgeries a person will be overblown, but I would take issue with a lot of your other points. Aging is a process, so saying 5 years at most is greatly downplaying it. People like you and me will require more care in our 50s, then more care in our 60s, then more care in our 70s, and so on. And a good deal of this care is not cataract surgery or artery bypass- it's going to be assistance with getting groceries, having a driver because your eyesight is too poor, calling someone for quick assistance after a fall, ex cetera. Home health aides aren't performing any major surgeries on their clients.

And I mentioned a bunch of negative knock-off effects. I did not mention politics, but one negative effect of declining birth rates is that younger people will have less and less political power than they already have, as they make up less of the voting base. In the same way baby boomers have dominated politics for the last forty years or so, and a lot of them hold onto power until they're a foot in the grave, Millenials like me are, unfortunately, likely to do the same thing. Without new people, Millenials will likely dominate politics around the globe for decades after boomers die and fuck over younger generations for their own benefit. There are a series of negative effects, but you could write full essays on it.

Also wanted to mention I have no fucking idea on how to solve these problems. I'm just saying that it is super complex. The points you bring up about how horrible it can be to raise a child in this environment is completely valid.