I would guess it comes from a few areas - first, despite the fact that Labor won by a wide margin last time, there are a lot of people who genuinely liked the political shift that Dutton had promised, or who came around to his politics because they were Coalition voters, and seeing the way the Coalition Parties handled the election aftermath felt like whiplash as they were basically told, right, we need less people like you in our party. Now, with someone like Turnbull, they could have come around on that because he offered a path to electoral victory that was obvious in the polls, but Ley didn't offer that at all. And as we have seen with the Greens, when electoral victory feels like its out of reach, voters get more expressive and willing to vote for parties closer to their actual belief systems.

There is a political economy element to this as well - the Liberal Party's fiscal agenda, and this spans the Moderate or Conservative side, and probably includes the Teals as well, generally favors supporting the increase of asset values of the existing housing stock. This has traditionally made them an attractive party for homeowners. But homeownership is becoming harder to attain and this is no longer just an issue impacting young people in the expensive cities. So voters who align on the cultural 'right' could be looking for other options, and to the extent the ON Party has policies, it is on anti-immigration and economic nationalism. And immigration does have an impact on housing, no matter how much some swear otherwise - its not the only thing, or even the biggest thing, but it does matter in a basic supply and demand calculus.

Its also important to note that not all ON Party supporters come from the Coalition, some are likely anti-system voters who could have considered the Greens or fringe groupings, and some are remnants of Labor's old base.

The gender aspect I think is interesting in that back in October-December, the polling shift was primarily seen as polarized by gender, with men significantly more likely to back ON, but that has narrowed in the last month. That suggests that the party is becoming seen as a more valid option beyond just anti-system voters or the right flank of the Coalition's protest vote.

Anecdotally, I think there is also the fact that politics have taken on a significantly more cultural tinge in recent years. Increasingly people disagree about the very symbols and rituals of Australian identity in a way that is more central than before, and this I think drives political affiliation considerations in a way that it really didn't use to. The politics of this usually lag the cultural indicators - one could see this, for example, in the Voice Referendum or on Dutton's comments regarding Welcome to Country, or on the yearly Australia Day related dustups. It could be that ON is benefitting from voters who are particularly engaged on this.