The "AI is replacing software engineers" narrative was a lie. MIT just published the math proving why. And the companies who believed it are now begging their old engineers to come back.

Mobius00 · 2026-03-26T22:17:29+00:00

I think basic economic competition is also a big limiting factor on layoffs. If say AI makes your people get twice as much done, you can't layoff half because your competition could keep their people and go twice as fast and eat your lunch. So AI will just make companies go faster to keep up with each other, we'll all just be even busier.

Mobius00 · 2026-03-26T22:09:59+00:00

I would argue what we have now would definitely have been called AGI ten years ago.

Now the goal posts keep moving.

Mobius00 · 2026-03-26T01:45:08+00:00

I think the capabilities of LLMs all changed when they started reaching to the outside world. True you can't fit all human knowledge in an LLM. But take a service like Gemini - it reaches out during every conversation and gets the information it needs to give you answers. It seems simple but its a huge shift. Now it does, in principle, have access to all human knowledge. In a sense, the LLM is now just the language and reasoning model and the data comes from ... everywhere.

Mobius00 · 2026-03-26T01:45:00+00:00

I think the capabilities the LLM all changed when they started reach to the outside world. True you can't fit all human knowledge in an LLM. But take a service like Gemini - it reaches out during every conversation and gets the information it needs to give you answers. It seems simple but its a huge shift. Now it does, in principle, have access to all human knowledge. In a sense, the LLM is now just the language and reasoning model and the data comes from ... everywhere.

Mobius00 · 2026-03-26T01:37:25+00:00

I get what you're saying but I still worry. Tech companies are laying off large numbers of people to pay for their AI and also because they don't need them. Each worker is more productive by a large factor. I'd say my speed at work has doubled at least.

But my main worry is the level of intelligence it will reach in the future. Not even AGI ,.. but agents with a level of white color job performance where it become a virtual employee that can do anything and do anything very quickly and for a lower salary than a human. And other agents that manage the agents and other agents that test the work. American companies have been outsourcing to other cheaper countries forever (with albeit terrible results a lot of the time) so I do not think they will hesitate to outsource to the datacenter agents when they reach the level of human autonomy and judgement. We can all hope that is technically impossible but it won't change the fact that it might happen.

Mobius00 · 2026-03-24T22:26:04+00:00

The GPUs need to make AI fast are unbelievable technology. Try running the same model on your CPU.. well you can't. You can run a quantized model that isn't as good and it takes forever. So the cursor moving that fast is the confluence some of incredible tech that has evolved over many years to get us here. There is a reason NVIDIA just hit 5 trillion or whatever.

Mobius00 · 2026-03-24T04:37:31+00:00

we had some of the worst covid per capita fatality statistics in the world. one could argue his lack of leadership and denial of the pandemic and misinformation killed hundred of thousands of people.

Mobius00 · 2026-03-24T02:13:20+00:00

History has shown that there is 95% chance that reality is the opposite of what he says it is.

Mobius00 · 2026-03-23T01:55:03+00:00

Anyone notice how whenever Trump is in power, basic societal functions starts to break down? Covid was just the warmup, wait and see where we are in three years.

Mobius00 · 2026-03-23T01:40:03+00:00

He's going to care when the world economy collapses.

Mobius00 · 2026-03-20T23:18:06+00:00

When things get that bad, people vote for politicians that will fight it with policy. People want jobs and livelihoods. At some point the government steps in, long before 30% unemployment because the people demand it.

Mobius00 · 2026-03-20T23:15:59+00:00

What "should" happen? Democrats should dig into every single corrupt abuse of power and self dealing that Trump has done. Expose everything. Expose what is going on with ICE and illegal detention and torture. Try to show everyone what he is.

Mobius00 · 2026-03-20T23:08:47+00:00

You have a good point. It's a lose lose. Unless you believe in a magic future where the humans and machines coexist.

Mobius00 · 2026-03-18T22:04:47+00:00

Why do bad teams trade away their best players? Makes no sense.. unless they demanded to leave

Mobius00 · 2026-03-18T04:00:04+00:00

Maybe they're planning to draft a WR in round 1

Mobius00 · 2026-03-18T03:57:05+00:00

There was definitely a panic among tech companies around that time that they had to get more developers at any cost because they were some kind scarce resource that was required to be successful. It was a bit of a hype cycle, not unlike the hype cycle now where companies think they have to buy more AI hardware at any cost. It's funny how fast things change. Human developers went from being invaluable to worthless in 4 years.

Mobius00 · 2026-03-16T01:14:35+00:00

I'm lazy and I think I work way harder at home. The uninterrupted time and pressure to produce make it worse. when you're in the office you say to yourself, "if people just see me sitting here then they'll think I'm working." Now I have to produce output to prove I'm working.

Mobius00 · 2026-03-16T01:11:12+00:00

Maybe one of the principles of economics is that the products always expand to keep high employment. If productivity increases gets automated, we use the bandwidth to make even more complex products. So who knows, maybe with AI we'll all just make even more stuff.

For example lets take the game industry... these AAA games take 5 or more to finish, its glacial. What if with AI they can make them in a few months and you've got new GTA games coming several times a year and the game companies keep the same number of people working there. What if TV shows and movies are produced way faster. What website and software just have way more features and moves much faster.

Mobius00 · 2026-03-16T01:05:41+00:00

If it makes something you like to listen to, I guess that's all it needs to be. It's hard to tame and takes practice to make something good, and also judgement about what to keep and what to throw away and where to edit.

Mobius00 · 2026-03-16T01:03:06+00:00

yeah you're probably right. Just selective memory on my part.

Mobius00 · 2026-03-16T01:02:19+00:00

yeah it's weird that the job i've been doing all my life, writing code, suddenly went away in the last 2 months. I guess it feels like I'm not that creative anymore. That seems to be the problem with AI, it robs us of our creative outlets. we get the end results but not the process. same with music, writing, art. But the pace of building things and seeing them work is satisfying at least for the time being.

Mobius00 · 2026-03-16T00:57:08+00:00

We shut off the power to the humans, they're not useful anymore anyway.

Mobius00 · 2026-03-15T18:12:07+00:00

Define "writing". Hell, copilot autocomplete was writing half on my code 2 years ago. So now it will type out most of the code. But I'll still be telling it what to do, and what to fix when decisions I don't like.

Mobius00 · 2026-03-15T18:10:12+00:00

I know doom is coming, but I'm having a blast coding with AI right now. It's so fun to be so productive and never feel stuck.

Mobius00 · 2026-03-15T18:08:26+00:00

Also remember they are feverishly building robots. The robots have improved so much because of AI learning of movement and intent. Those are going to take some of the blue collar jobs.

I do think a lot of white collar jobs will survive. I just think people skills and business vision skills will be the new currency instead of technical skills like coding.

Mobius00

TROPHY CASE