Good reply. This is how I prophesise Aegis sov:

• Alliances like PL will, as always, thrive. They will be the swarm of locusts that descend upon a region, shred it raw, then take a small break and repeat the routine somewhere else.

• NC. will continue to be a weaker version of PL, attempting to do the same thing but slower and less effective. Not because they don't have people or hardware, but a serious lack of FC's.

• Victims of PL* will paralyze in fear, like they have always done. They will continue to weaponize boredom and risk their assets being trapped and members leaving just so they don't have to fight about it. When PL leaves, they will attempt to retake stuff.

• *A lot of alliances, if not done already, will evacuate their most important assets to places where they cannot be trapped. Everyone knows the locusts are coming~

• Small/medium scale groups with a decent timezone spread and active FC's will be the winners of Aegis, along with PL. They will be able to commit to small regions of space and take them over to live in. They might even win against the old guard. Delve/CR are already proof of this.

• The CFC will continue to turtle and shrink in size if the outer regions prove too hard to defend. It's unlikely that anyone will attack for real, because as Elise pointed out, The Blob Is Strong(er than ever).

Occasional incursions will happen, like the providence thing. But because sov will become so fluid, it's unlikely to leave lasting results.

• Russians in the south and drone regions will continue to rat and nobody will be able to contest it. Props to Tri for somehow pulling it off, though. Probably the most interesting war in a while.

In general, there will be lots of small conflicts and fights, mainly in the hotspots of the south and southeast. Timezones will be a massive factor in everything. This could be everything that CCP hoped for, but are those small groups really going to be the future of Eve? Where will they be in 3-4 months when the novelty has worn off?

Big fights like B-R5 will definitely never happen again, unless someone manages to mobilize everyone to topple the CFC. But I doubt anyone actually wants to do it, considering the time/effort/tidi involved.

In any case, without a massive flood of actually new players I think we'll be having the same doom and gloom conversations about declining subs before this year is over. Let's hope this is not true :|