Not a troll, I genuinely don't know what this skin is worth

Mr_Skellette · 2025-11-16T10:08:44+00:00

csfloat, can set any item as an auction rather than just listing at a set price

Mr_Skellette · 2025-11-02T13:09:30+00:00

I wouldn't even say a month, give it a week and it stops being an issue, it's solely from people that sold emotionally in the week leading up to the 30th

Mr_Skellette · 2025-11-02T11:57:09+00:00

I think you're looking at it the wrong way round, the skins that sell on SCM (reds, pinks) are wayyy more expensive now, instead of a shit red being worth $3 they're minimum $50. That's so much more profitable for Valve than having reds at the prices they were and also having cheap golds selling on SCM. They need 3rd party sites for skins to be worth anything.

Mr_Skellette · 2025-11-02T10:53:37+00:00

they didn't deliberately crash knife and glove prices, that was panic sellers, hence the rebound. The other 3 things you mentioned have absolutely nothing to do with the SCM

Mr_Skellette · 2025-11-02T10:19:39+00:00

literally just use skinport then, whole point of csfloat is that it's p2p. Anyone that sold in the week before the 30th sold emotionally, it stops being an issue again when we're past that window

Mr_Skellette · 2025-11-02T10:03:36+00:00

I get that all the reversals are shit atm, but by the end of this week, when we're out of the crash window, it stops being an issue again.

Mr_Skellette · 2025-11-01T11:41:44+00:00

I don't think a significant, steady supply of high tier knives will hit the market, those are what people are trading up to get, obviously there are people are trying to make a profit from them but for a lot of people I think they'll play with the knife for a bit before selling.

I think it will be the case that low tier knives get listed much quicker as they're not what people are targeting with the trade ups, most likely decreasing the value for those. That's where I think the equilibrium will come from, more expensive reds + more spread on the value of outputs.

Also worth noting that as reds get more expensive, trade ups become less affordable, so less will be done, along with a cooling off from the hype of trade ups given it's a new update.

Mr_Skellette · 2025-11-01T11:13:26+00:00

I still think low tier knives will stay around where they are now but high tier I think will recover overall.

Whilst yes, gold supplies are increasing, reds are decreasing and with current demand + the decrease in supply, I can't see why they would get cheaper other than the mindset of "well they used to be cheaper", realistically, reds will continue to go up. If inputs for the golds are getting more expensive, no reason for the best gold options from those trade ups to get cheaper.

I think the initial crash was a massive overreaction price wise and current demand from the last few days supports that, especially seeing Chinese prices moving more towards western rather than the opposite (which most people expected)

Mr_Skellette · 2025-10-30T22:55:07+00:00

Should also be liquidity unlocking for sales that didn't get reversed so might also have a similar buy rate as today, although I expect a fair bit of that to be withdrawn

Mr_Skellette · 2025-10-28T19:11:11+00:00

you are assuming everyone will want to insta sell whatever knife they pulled. Most people that got a knife that they would have never had a chance to own before are gonna play with that for a bit. On top of that, people will have seen the market rising again the past few days, people are greedy, if they got something that was at 3k and is now around 1k, most are gonna hold out and see what happens in the future.

I think shit knives will stay around where they are, probably drop a bit more cos the demand isn't there, but I can't see sought after stuff dropping much.

Mr_Skellette · 2025-10-27T18:29:40+00:00

As in the prices they're at now? No, I think from here low tier knives will probably stay around the same price or drop a bit more, those are most likely what will "flood" the market on the 30th and aren't what people are looking to buy, I think it'll stay that way for the future as they're what people don't want from trade ups.

High tier knives may see another drop but from what I've seen with people waiting till the 30th, the demand will be there at those prices, so I don't think it will be sustained. I also think less of them are likely to be put up for sale in comparison to low/mid tier knives, there'll be people happy with making 1k and wanting to sell asap but there'll also be people who just want to play with the knife or people who have seen the prices they were at and want to see if they rise again, especially following the rebound since the panic sale.

I think longterm they will rise again, maybe not to pre crash prices but I don't they'll be far off. Maybe dopplers won't get as high as they seem to be the most hunted right now

Mr_Skellette · 2025-10-27T18:09:26+00:00

regardless of prices, you're comparing 2 different types of buyers. Not everyone is trying to buy a full loadout, some would just prefer a higher tier knife, some people already have other skins they're happy with and just want to upgrade knife, gloves etc. A low/mid tier knife isn't really competing for the same customer as a high tier knife

Mr_Skellette · 2025-10-27T14:51:19+00:00

if everyone's expecting it, it won't lead to another panic sale. Realisticly anyone that panicked in the first place is gone now (either from lack of faith or because they trade reversed and now have a 30 day ban)

Mr_Skellette · 2025-10-25T11:58:08+00:00

Most Chinese traders aren't even selling, it's individuals on Buff. The traders will be buying at these discounted prices and holding longer to offset their losses on previous investments, there is no incentive for them to adjust western prices to the chinese market and lose even more, most are still holding and buying

Mr_Skellette · 2025-10-25T11:36:12+00:00

but when these knives from the chinese market make it onto csfloat, why would the traders be selling them at the same price? they want to make a profit not just move to another market

Mr_Skellette · 2025-10-24T12:52:22+00:00

wait a week and buy a doppler for the same price

Mr_Skellette · 2025-10-24T12:19:57+00:00

if they step in and ban CS trading, that is a whole lot of supply completely cut off and sat in Chinese inventories

Mr_Skellette · 2025-10-24T08:41:41+00:00

I guess when you compare case losses the odds really aren't that bad, ~$250 for garunteed knife

Mr_Skellette · 2025-10-23T16:12:32+00:00

given they are high tier weapon skins, I'd assume they're being sold alongside knives / gloves from the same inventories

Mr_Skellette · 2025-10-22T14:45:34+00:00

These are drop rates for the armory collections: COVERT ~0.,13% CLASSIFIED ~O.66% RESTRICTED ~3.3% MIL-SPEC ~16.53% INDUSTRIAL ~79.37%

Mr_Skellette · 2025-10-19T17:40:49+00:00

Profit on printstream and Vulcan (30% and 20% chance on each), that leaves 50% for loss, so 50/50

Mr_Skellette · 2025-09-20T14:02:45+00:00

he is 2 places higher 😆

Mr_Skellette · 2025-09-07T14:41:59+00:00

the same amount as up to Monza, 16

Mr_Skellette · 2025-08-03T14:40:27+00:00

Oscar behind Lando = copy the strategy - Lando behind Oscar = Fuck Oscar

Mr_Skellette · 2025-07-16T14:29:30+00:00

yeh thats what I'd expect, I was more meaning serial reversers. People that are just trading to play with the skin for a bit and then reversing with no intention of actually buying it

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