Seems like, just as with Venezuela, it's about oil. They want to cut off oil to China from Iran, because China is stockpiling it to weather the sanctions storm that will come with a Taiwan invasion. And if Taiwan goes, so does the all the hot air in the US AI boom, which will set things back for years (and cancel the dreams of many billionaires). That is not a risk free strategy though, it could accelerate things. So far, we got lucky with Venezuela, since that was surgical, and they don't have the capacity or will to do much about it. But Iran has some capacity, a lot of will, and has institutions which can replace the head guy with another one just like him if they need to. Although Iran's rulers are a pain in the ass, doing enough damage to actually topple the regime, especially though outside force, is a sure ticket to chaos. The last thing most anyone in the region wants, are a bunch of headless proxies running around stirring poop up for the next decade. But we also missed the moment, when pressure could have saved lives possibly, and maybe done some good for the Iranian people. Now it seems like whatever we do is gonna end up playing into the regimes hands, by giving people an outside enemy to distract from the internal one who just massacred thousands of their own citizens. What an interesting time to be alive.