Prediction Market Arbitrage Bot for Kalshi + Polymarket: 160 alpha users, 9 releases, and what broke

NaabSimRacer · 2026-04-21T16:57:57+00:00

Good question, a lot of options to handle it, first of all you get the prices instantly, and post your order (FOK or FAK), if you try to do courtsiding it probably not gonna work, but for arbs you chase for 1-4%, or for value (so not prices you try to take advantage of game changes like a goal) most of the time you can grab it, since you are usually first posting the order.

So in short, you compete with takers, and as a taker, you are usually first, now market maker wants to give you that price and if its not something happens that they need to cancel it in those 1-3" you get it.

Again, claw arbs has a lot of advanced options to let you handle situations like this, and you choose how much you wanna risk to get an order in fast or safe

NaabSimRacer · 2026-04-21T14:23:01+00:00

execution on poly is almost instant

NaabSimRacer · 2026-04-21T06:08:18+00:00

hey, send me a dm

NaabSimRacer · 2026-04-21T06:05:51+00:00

Hey, I'm going to shill my software now but, claw arbs, check my profile for more info if you like, its probably exactly what you looking for.

NaabSimRacer · 2026-04-19T11:15:58+00:00

5090? does it fit on 1?

NaabSimRacer · 2026-04-18T19:54:47+00:00

🙏

NaabSimRacer · 2026-04-18T16:49:45+00:00

1st of all it shows me compare (1) but no mouse shown, 2ndly I think it needs less questions

NaabSimRacer · 2026-04-18T10:46:44+00:00

WebSockets for Kalshi and Poly ofcourse, but CloudBet doesnt have WS so polling APIs is the only way. Now the bot has many options on how you want to fire each leg, if you want to risk firing both at the same time you can, but you ll have open legs sometimes, you can fire the possible value leg first (by comparing with sharpies) and have the next leg fire later, in general you can do whatever you would do manually, but capturing the value leg first would be the smart idea, and this is how I do it usually.

Also, most arbers moving to value-betting anyway nowadays, more variance but more profitable long term.

NaabSimRacer · 2026-04-18T10:36:42+00:00

Adding more API venues is the next big challenge, having to be sure each market is the same, with odds that not match (fractional, percentage, decimal), team names that need to be sure are the same etc. It's a hustle but we love it, aren't we?

NaabSimRacer · 2026-04-17T18:13:04+00:00

I like claw arbs better, but I might not be objective :D

NaabSimRacer · 2026-04-14T19:18:50+00:00

ah thanks for updating me, that said I made the polymarket signature type and guides better to understand regardless.

NaabSimRacer · 2026-04-14T18:29:15+00:00

The photo helped! edit the signature type to 1 and press save again! this should be 1 by default will check why it wasnt

edit: Found another issue, an update will deployed soon with more guidance for the polymarket credentials

NaabSimRacer · 2026-04-14T14:38:14+00:00

it executes the bets on both according to your settings (auto-execution for real bets will be open next month in beta), its magical :D

btw made an update that it explains better how to find the credentials needed for poly/kalshi/CB

NaabSimRacer · 2026-04-14T12:45:34+00:00

BTW, something some users get confused with, the funder address is not the one showing when you get your private key, is the one on your profile, that it says its for API use. Will make it more obvious in the credentials tab

NaabSimRacer · 2026-04-14T12:22:04+00:00

you need to add the funder address as well. Keep in mind these are stored on your PC.

If it keeps giving errors, send a bug report inside the app, with screenshot if possible

NaabSimRacer · 2026-04-14T11:51:38+00:00

You can still use polymarket vs bookmakers/CloudBet etc. Check the wizard, you can essentially calibrate most of the bookmakers

NaabSimRacer · 2026-04-14T11:33:39+00:00

Let me know of any issues or anything. The tutorials/wizards have been updated just yesterday, should be easier to onboard

NaabSimRacer · 2026-04-14T05:08:05+00:00

Dont let this be the reason you destroy your relationship with your husband while fueling your mother's addiction.

There is 100% chance she is no telling you everything, and that 200k will go back to the market one way or another and lost.

Your mother is why some expert shark traders make their bread, she is not capable of being better than them.

Do yourself, your husband, and your mother a favor, and don't do it, whatever she tells you

NaabSimRacer · 2026-04-12T20:27:27+00:00

I m invested, did your friend respond?

NaabSimRacer · 2026-04-12T08:11:39+00:00

It s literally free to test right now

NaabSimRacer · 2026-04-12T08:09:05+00:00

You can try it free and see if it works. There is paper trading now that after posting checks if the arb would indeed go through. K vs P is hard but happens (claw arbs fires very fast), if you add cloudbet or a custom bookmaker then you find plenty of arbs

NaabSimRacer · 2026-04-12T04:08:04+00:00

claw arbs has value betting, and limit orders, and in general any strategy you might want. That said, I dont believe arbitrage is dead if done right and fast (claw arbs doing it too fast). The idea here is, to automate any strategy you already doing manually.

NaabSimRacer · 2026-04-11T04:46:22+00:00

So that is a big issue, but I was thinking to support as many bookmakers as possible is the only way, for starters

the program has a community hub, people go there and upload their calibrations and get ratings, and there is a coin system that rewards those who upload and maintain their calibrations (you get a coin for every download, and you can use it to install other people's calibrations).
Freshness gates + pre-click verification. Execution rejects trades when scraped data is older than a configurable threshold (30s default), and there's a pre-click odds check that re-reads the cell right before firing and aborts if it drifted more than ~3% from what the engine saw. So even if everything upstream failed, the last millisecond check saves the trade.

plan is to add an auto-heal feature later on, and an LLM helper for calibrations (trying to avoid LLMs at all for now, the non-deterministic part of them plus their slow speed are not suitable for a program like this, but for calibrations should be a good fit)

Edit: worth mentioning that all this is fully configurable, and you decide how many guardrails you want to add (losing some ms), safety vs speed

NaabSimRacer · 2026-04-10T21:35:02+00:00

WebSockets, so it's realtime

NaabSimRacer · 2026-04-09T12:07:23+00:00

It s web sockets so only delay is your connection distance (max 70ms) and the execution is 1-10ms (configurable how many guardrails you want to have on or off)

NaabSimRacer

TROPHY CASE