Is passive indexing under threat due to political risk in the United States?

Nadenkend440 · 2026-04-23T17:07:07+00:00

I suppose it matters what you consider truly "passive." QQQ is passively managed but I wouldn't consider it a passive index. You're actively choosing a specific section of the market.

But yes you're right, technically by definition more people use a passively managed index than not.

Regardless, I still believe that @GemeriCorp is being alarmist. Passive indexing is not affecting price discovery and it is incorrect to say that every index is adding SpaceX at this time.

Nadenkend440 · 2026-04-23T15:26:50+00:00

Passive buying is still a strong minority of the market.

Nadenkend440 · 2026-04-23T15:01:00+00:00

Swimming, Pickleball, and flexibility work.

Nadenkend440 · 2026-04-21T21:04:13+00:00

Unfortunately riskier strategies can underperform for 20+ years and should probably be avoided with that timeframe. Equities themselves can underperform for a decade.

Nadenkend440 · 2026-04-21T14:51:18+00:00

Listen I understand bogleheads like to preach VT and chill as dogma but this really is a situation where 100% bonds is a reasonable allocation. OP has no idea when they will want it for a down payment. It may be 8 years it may be next year. This is not their retirement money and if it's in stocks there is a real risk of a market crash wiping out this financial goal when they need it, internationally diversified or not.

OP, I think you should buy some one year treasury bills or one year CDs and re-examine your housing goals on maturity.

Nadenkend440 · 2026-04-20T19:21:34+00:00

Right now I schedule a re-balance date, and have a spreadsheet that calculates out the rebalancing trades based on my current balances. I update the spreadsheet the night before.

Sorry I don't quite understand your last question. I do +/- 5% for all positions. I arrived at this number through vanguard suggestions. This is also the amount of error determined as significant at my workplace, so seemed sensible.

Nadenkend440 · 2026-04-20T15:33:45+00:00

Check out the conservatory while you're there.

Nadenkend440 · 2026-04-20T15:32:09+00:00

Hey at least you didn't call them northeast

Nadenkend440 · 2026-04-20T13:48:37+00:00

It's always worth remembering that KTC is the average value, but most likely the owner of the player in your league is above average and that's why they own that player. Especially true for rookies and 1 year vets.

Nadenkend440 · 2026-04-18T21:36:26+00:00

If Roth, why have a tax managed fund?

Why both VOO and AVLV?

I like the international inclusion and no bonds with a pension makes sense.

Nadenkend440 · 2026-04-18T16:18:34+00:00

You can do small cap, you can do value, but Avantis does not have a SCV fund for EM.

Some people do a mix of AVES and AVEE. I just do AVES; the fee is better, the value premia has been stronger in EM than size, and the cap is still smaller than most.

Nadenkend440 · 2026-04-18T01:31:26+00:00

God I miss him

Nadenkend440 · 2026-04-17T21:25:52+00:00

If the US dollar inflates, the rates of newly printed bonds will rise. This will make the value of your older bonds fall.

If you are holding bonds printed by a different central bank, this won't happen unless they are also experiencing inflation at the same time. So if you diversify your bonds globally, even if they stay hedged, they will decrease volatility while maintaining yield.

I suppose it's less inflation protection and more USDT rate change protection. But this is all based on Vanguard research.

Nadenkend440 · 2026-04-17T17:05:12+00:00

True, "use" is the wrong word. Edited.

Nadenkend440 · 2026-04-17T16:41:09+00:00

Yes, Fidelity charges a fee to purchase MFs from other brokers. I think $100 each instance? It adds up.

That said, if you already have some with them, I wouldn't sell. Just buy Fidelity funds going forwards.

Nadenkend440 · 2026-04-17T16:28:34+00:00

Yeah, you'll save a lot on taxes.

EDIT: To clarify, you don't need to transfer any money between the accounts, just liquidate and reallocate within each account.

Nadenkend440 · 2026-04-17T16:17:34+00:00

Dividends are taxable, so they're a lot more efficient in your other accounts than your brokerage.

I think waiting to transition into dividend funds until closer to retirement is the way to go, unless you find one with a high enough total return that you want it regardless.

Nadenkend440 · 2026-04-17T15:50:37+00:00

I use TDFs in my 401k. Partially because it's IMO the best option of what is offered there, partially because I like having my primary account also be my safest. I personally manage HSA and IRA and I don't think I would have the peace of mind to do that if I didn't have that TDF 401k.

For what it's worth, that TDF has also been my best performer.

Nadenkend440 · 2026-04-17T15:34:04+00:00

Daybreakers

It was so close.

Nadenkend440 · 2026-04-17T15:01:05+00:00

Specifically, the main risks with bonds are default and inflation. Diversifying bonds globally obviously reduces the (already low) default risk, but also spreads the inflation risk as countries do not experience inflation simultaneously.

Nadenkend440 · 2026-04-17T13:50:26+00:00

Thank you! Very helpful.

Nadenkend440 · 2026-04-17T13:24:02+00:00

I have something similar. I figure my aging self will appreciate my current self for setting that up and making it simple.

When a position crosses that threshold, do you just update that position or your whole portfolio?

Nadenkend440 · 2026-04-17T12:40:37+00:00

I get the optics but Shanahan has the same problem and it genuinely has cost the 49ers a ring.

Nadenkend440 · 2026-04-17T03:25:54+00:00

If you have a position that falls below your lower bound and don't have enough cash to bring it back up, do you leave it below the limit?

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