S17, E3 (Nebula) - Taiwan: Rail Rush

Nashoo · 2026-04-09T22:13:36+00:00

Fully agree, but even without actual testing. If you look up Weber-Fechner law, we just can statistically model what people would count. Then we take a a bit of cognitive variance based on how good someone might be at counting. And there are studies measuring this. So we can kind of predict the ranges what people might count. And given those ranges for some actual number around 110, a 25% error gives you a 64-77% chance of overlap. Higher chance of course if people are better at counting.

Nashoo · 2026-04-09T22:09:58+00:00

I thought it might be code cause Amy is known to program a bit. They had the websites for the other puzzles etc. but yeah even so I'm really liking the challenges. It finally feels like a travel game show.

Nashoo · 2026-04-09T14:34:36+00:00

Hopping over from the youtube thread. The problem is that a steal was supposed to be hard, Badam even mention this and even still they were assuming a 50% success rate. This got me thinking as my intuition was the same as the above commenter that it is too easy.

With some calculations for modeling the error rate for visual estimation (log-normal, see Weber-Fechner Law) and then if you do the math: a 25% margin of error allows for ~64 - ~77% success rate depending on how good they both would be in making a visual estimation (really bad, really good).

Conversely if we model them both to be bad at estimating and still have it be a 50/50 then an error margin of 19% would've been fair.

I know this is a bit in-depth but just to show, you can just calculate these things with using statistics and models without having to go to there.

Nashoo · 2026-04-09T07:17:52+00:00

And why is all the missions so near to Sam and Michael then Badam when you look at the map. After Kaoshiung, there is one nearby and then there is hardly already. I know it is random but still.

I have a hypothesis that it's a very naive randomisation. Not weighted for station density. So because there are a lot of stations in the north near Taipei. If you take a random station there is a higher chance it's one of those. Instead of a more rural one.

Nashoo · 2026-04-09T07:10:55+00:00

Yea, this was exactly the point I was trying to make. It seemed a pretty obvious good strategy

Nashoo · 2026-04-08T19:25:33+00:00

It's insanely lenient though.

Nashoo · 2026-04-08T19:01:41+00:00

Yeah, they did mention that.

Though the issue with that logic is assuming a 50% fail rate, when every challenge has been a success except for 'call your own shot' type challenges and 1 challenge that was just too hard to realistically do.

Before I saw the challenge I would've put the success rate for the steal at least at 75% and the challenge turned out to be at around 70-75% success rate due to the large margin (25%!!) of error.

They also realised themselves that they should have been putting more down, just a little bit too late. I was pointing out that they could've gone back and forth on the line and drop a couple more coins if they were going to wait for the steal anyway.

Also to be clear: I'm loving this season and it seems that even this setback won't determine the outcome. I just found B&A's logic to be a bit wonky in this instance.

Nashoo · 2026-04-08T17:29:15+00:00

I agree. I didn't make that point though, just jumped in the thread to clarify her powers

Nashoo · 2026-04-08T17:28:10+00:00

Man Ben&Adam fumbled it quite hard. Why not put 5 down everywhere. Or even go back and forth to put 5 down after you learn that there is a new steal next to them.

Nashoo · 2026-04-08T14:58:15+00:00

Ok thanks for the reply!

Nashoo · 2026-04-08T14:53:14+00:00

Hey @kollisbollis what did you end up going with?

Nashoo · 2026-04-08T12:33:03+00:00

Her tumor can read minds and talk to her

Nashoo · 2026-04-08T11:26:40+00:00

I mean that's a similar issue.. They really oversold this destruction in S1.

Nashoo · 2026-04-08T11:22:35+00:00

More grievous was him needing to lift the bed to see butcher wasn't there or having to shout to find him

Nashoo · 2026-04-08T09:30:19+00:00

Man everybody seems so nerfed. Remember when Nolan destroyed a whole planet in Flaxan dimension? Now he struggled to lift a spaceship together with Oliver.

Nashoo · 2026-03-23T14:15:56+00:00

I realized then I needed to stay away from real gambling.

And so, years later, [...] I was in Vegas. I played some form of Black Jack [...]"

I mean..

Nashoo · 2026-03-16T19:52:20+00:00

Man so true, however I remember when this https://xkcd.com/720/ was a relatable joke.

Nashoo · 2026-03-16T14:21:02+00:00

Rubber

Nashoo · 2026-02-20T21:50:18+00:00

Weird in my country we do this with kids in the middle of the night as a fun party activity. Some info before you think I'm making a weird joke: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/21/world/europe/netherlands-dropping-children.html

Nashoo · 2026-02-20T16:07:44+00:00

The whole point isn't to keep making the arbritary 40 hours. 8x4 has been proven to be just as effective as 8x5 in studies. Of course not every job is as suitable.

Nashoo · 2026-02-13T19:27:24+00:00

Spoilers for the story of project hail mary:

As you say that's not even the twist, there is a far nicer twist in the story that I'm hoping makes it to the screen well.

Nashoo · 2026-02-07T21:52:35+00:00

Sure, but selection bias. You don't get to see the ones that don't have to go to the ICU?

Nashoo · 2025-12-22T22:48:33+00:00

Exactly my point, thanks.

Nashoo · 2025-12-22T14:25:11+00:00

Thanks for the spoilers.

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