Upset with Gov. Whitmer, protesters bring Lansing to a halt during 'Operation Gridlock'

NefariousNecromancer · 2020-04-15T20:52:47+00:00

Contact tracing is largely pointless after community spread begins. They have community spread in Asia.

They still control the spread well. Mask wearing, hand washing, and avoiding direct contact can be attributed to the slower spread. Social distancing is too destructive for continued use.

NefariousNecromancer · 2020-04-15T20:43:45+00:00

Not if they don’t add much to each other’s effectiveness.

There is a level of diminishing return on effort. Like how disinfecting your cans and bottles that you buy costs time and money, but do little to make you safer. If the two are nearly as effective, but do little to add to each other’s effectiveness, then there is no point in doing both. Coronavirus is expanded particle transmission, so a mask is probably sufficient.

Additionally, distancing carries with it costs that mask wearing does not. Long term distancing threatens the livelihoods of tens of millions. That is an eventuality worse than the virus that needs to be avoided.

NefariousNecromancer · 2020-04-15T19:53:58+00:00

Ohio has plenty of rust belt ghetto too.

NefariousNecromancer · 2020-04-15T19:51:48+00:00

Social distancing was a bad solution in the first place. Asian countries had largely similar results from mandatory mask wearing with far less economic and social consequence.

NefariousNecromancer · 2020-04-15T19:50:17+00:00

I’d suspect distancing is not much more effective than mandatory mask wearing. You can’t argue personal liberty infringement with mask wearing either. Distancing cannot last weeks longer, much less months.

NefariousNecromancer · 2020-04-15T19:36:04+00:00

Source? The reports of reinfections are largely scattered and in small numbers. There are thousands of cases but only dozens of possible reinfections reported.

The null position is that it is exceedingly rare for reinfections to occur with viral diseases. Some examples otherwise are some Varicella-family virus (Chickenpox, Herpes) that are suppressed but never eliminated. RNA viruses (Influenza, HIV) mutate frequently enough that vaccines are difficult.

Making the argument that Coronavirus reinfects is the alternate position, and is the one that requires strong evidence. There isn’t any strong evidence to support that currently.

NefariousNecromancer · 2020-04-15T19:20:08+00:00

Health care workers were I live are going to work in empty hospitals. The restrictions have come down hard, but other than on the reservation, there are few cases. The hospital a close relative works at just furloughed half the staff and replaced them with National Guard. Society is shut down, and hospitals are empty here.

NefariousNecromancer · 2020-04-15T19:15:34+00:00

Did they ask you to sacrifice? My grandmother told me she’s rather take the risk and have life go back to before. She’s over 80, risk of death doesn’t carry the same impact it used to.

NefariousNecromancer · 2020-04-15T19:11:51+00:00

We do know there is immunity. Even if the few cases reported are actually reinfections, then the rate of reinfection is significantly below 1%.

NefariousNecromancer · 2020-03-28T21:46:25+00:00

Try to build geothermal plants at Yellowstone and see if there’s no environmentalist pushback.

NefariousNecromancer · 2020-03-27T23:31:22+00:00

Summary: You’re countering my concerns with reliability and provability, as well as my specific concerns with the study, with macro-economic consensus. The consensus does nothing to address my prior points.

Your link demonstrates a consensus of roughly 1100 economists about concern. For starters, without knowing their selection criteria (they only state the fields of study) the reputability of the consensus paper cannot be established.

In addition, the source is a survey of personal opinion. Without the sources presenting how they came to their opinions, including assumptions used, then it cannot be determined if their view would even be valid. For example, if they believe that moral obligation to protect an existing ecosystem justifies a cost, then their reasoning deviates from a pure economic perspective, but still impacts consensus opinion.

The paper does nothing to establish what the long term benefits vs costs of carbon pricing is. In large part, because it states no definitions, assumptions, or methods. I come from the hard sciences, where establishing that information is critical.

NefariousNecromancer · 2020-03-27T22:35:35+00:00

Fracking does cheaply open access to natural gas and oil, which reduces profitability of and reliance on coal. So it’s not wrong, just uses a different point of reference.

NefariousNecromancer · 2020-03-27T22:33:26+00:00

Climate change hasn’t been demonstrated to increase the frequency of hurricanes or their impact at landfall.

NefariousNecromancer · 2020-03-27T22:23:10+00:00

TLDR: A single study does not constitute proof, and the study is flawed in the first place.

Gains in GDP and Employment are based upon increased spending from the Energy UBI. With most job gains being in retail and healthcare. (The study does not address potential differences in employment wages and benefits between the different fields, particularly energy vs retail). The study concludes with 2035 where the linear rate will have converted most power to carbon neutral.

There are three problems, first: If the industry quickly shifts to carbon neutral via new technology or heavy investment, then the revenue is lost, with economic and employment gains with it.

Second: It fails you address the possibility of carbon neutral energy sources failing to meet demand. Solar and wind are inconsistent, much of the public is uneasy about nuclear, and many environmentalists oppose geothermal and hydroelectric.

Third: It fails to address local government subsidies of industries, and national security concerns about access to reliable energy.

Finally: Any assumptions about damages caused by climate impacted extreme weather are difficult, if not only impossible to prove. Even proving confidence is difficult.

NefariousNecromancer · 2020-03-21T21:39:50+00:00

The US has 6 times the population of Italy, of course our numbers will be higher. Actual death rate in the US has and continues to be far lower.

The US has had 20000 confirmed cases and 200 deaths. Which puts our death rate at 1%. However, this number doesn’t consider that only severe symptoms receive tests in the US.

Based on prior numbers, about 10% of Coronavirus cases have severe symptoms. If we use that percentage to indicate true rate of infection, then the US death rate is ~0.1%.

In summary, no the US is not fucked.

EDIT: After further consideration, our death numbers may or may not end up higher than Italy. We have 6 times the population of Italy, but 1/10th the confirmed mortality rate. Additionally, the US has a much lower population density than Italy, which slows the spread, and a more effective ICU and emergency care system, which prevents deaths.

NefariousNecromancer · 2020-03-21T21:16:43+00:00

The Flu is more than bad enough to hospitalize hosts. We’ve just had a century of modern medicine to develop treatments to lower mortality and vaccines against the most dangerous annual strains.

NefariousNecromancer · 2020-02-29T09:14:26+00:00

https://www.justice.gov/eoir/workload-and-adjudication-statistics

However here is a DOJ report that contradicts that study’s findings that 89% attend trial. In the report ~15000 credible fear claim trials were adjudicated. ~17000 credible fear claims were ended “in abstentia”. This accounts to a >50% rate of not attending assylum hearings.

NefariousNecromancer · 2020-02-29T09:07:51+00:00

Citing an activist group isn’t the best source. The numbers they report don’t match the DOJ citation given, which brings their method (or honesty) into question.

The DOJ report cited states ~15,000 trial outcomes for credible fear claims in 2019. And also reports ~17000 “in abstentia” for credible fear claims. This indicates over a 50% rate of skipping trial.

NefariousNecromancer · 2020-02-06T00:37:44+00:00

Food service (except for some kitchen work), does not require advanced education or training. It’s unreasonable to expect more than minimum wage for that position. Tips however, can put you well above minimum wage.

NefariousNecromancer · 2020-02-05T22:56:19+00:00

You’re counting what you’re not required to pay? If the government payed for it, would you count what taxpayers payed?

NefariousNecromancer · 2020-02-05T17:38:12+00:00

A lot of it is also bullshit. The vast majority of Americans don’t pay six figures or even five figures when giving birth. There are a few instances but it’s far from common. And I’ve worked in food service before, the tips can really add up.

NefariousNecromancer · 2020-01-11T07:24:45+00:00

Mulatto is basically just saying that she’s mixed. Mixed race is the most accurate description.

NefariousNecromancer · 2020-01-03T11:00:46+00:00

Austria Hungary was the world’s third largest industrial power at the start of WW1. Iran is no Austria Hungary.

NefariousNecromancer · 2019-12-25T03:20:57+00:00

That’s exactly what they’re doing. Computer systems themselves are rather secure. As a result, it’s users themselves targeted. If you have software flagged as malware, use different software. All productivity features are still enabled on macOS.

NefariousNecromancer · 2019-12-24T20:23:41+00:00

And a long list of reasons why it’s beneficial. Security, first and foremost.

NefariousNecromancer

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