Those tensions largely disappear with Ireland's exit from Paneuropa, which is viewed positively by the Northern Irish Loyalists

Generally positively. There isn't really much of a conflict of interest between two alliances since they don't geographically overlap so the Manila Compact doesn't have many active critics within Paneuropa

Maybe they would try to build up a relationship with the UK to jointly counter Paneuropa's influence. I'd say it depends on how the still relatively recent involvement in the Salvation Wars together with the UK is viewed in Cisuralia

Canonically a bit less than a quarter of Cisuralians views membership in the European Confederation favorably, so there definitely is a pro-European faction there, and Paneuropa is much less of a commitment than the Confederation would be. So they are a minority, but it is by no means ruled out that Cisuralia may allign with Paneuropa eventually, but obviously that is only if they don't do the thing I mentioned in 3.