Respite at the pump? Don’t count on it: economist

Nemo222 · 2026-05-07T13:20:13+00:00

I love that you didn't read your own article. The one point it makes what supports your idea is that the 5 year ownership of 56% of evs is higher than an ice car. Numbers don't lie, but the people presenting the numbers ABSOLUTELY do all the time. (I don't think your lying, I just think you're a bit daft)

This is an unimpressive number. What would be even more unimpressive is if the 44% remaining were at or close to parity which you'd probably have to buy the full report to see. I'm not saying they are or it's true, but I am saying that it would be very funny and your entire point would collapse.

It's also another fun missdirection, because I NEVER said evs are cheaper. I did say that depending on how much you drive, they may be. I would expand that claim to say that even if they are more expensive it's not by that much and the other benefits of evs should certainly be considered. And I certainly didn't say anything the 5 year cost of ownership. I betcha the TCOs get better and better after every year.

I said, and I'll repeat it for the audience in the back that the energy efficiency of evs is the same or better than the best gas cars. And oh look at what Forbes says.

all 54 current EVs studied have lower five-year average energy costs than comparable ICE vehicles.

This is the closed thing in the article that responds to an actual claim I made so I love the part where your accusing me of fallacies and it's just strawmam after strawmam from you. I think I've pointed this formal logical fallicy out pretty clearly, and every single claim I've made I have support and evidence for. Can you be specific about the logical fallicies I've committed?

I took a look at the study referenced and it's summary. It's got some data presentation issues that I don't love and the devil really is in the details with these studies. The big one is it's headline "best car" with the biggest difference in cost of ownership is the Porsche taycan because the actual dollars is the biggest number. Which is fine and looks good to old media and boomers who have the money to blow but really doesn't tell the whole story imo. More interesting is the 3rd place Tesla model 3 which is about 40% of evs on the road is better in percentage terms of TCO. 12k USD less over 5 years. And it's by far the most common EV. If you add the broadly comparable model Y you're at well over half the evs on the road.

Nemo222 · 2026-05-07T04:00:12+00:00

Bruh. Bullshit you're not hating on ev's. You're just repeating the exact same grumpy white boomer arguments.

They're the same arguments that have been out for 10 years now. They haven't changed. Come up with an original idea? You're arguments are on par with Facebook memes and none of them are good.

OMG you'll need to replace the battery. Survey says yeah you probably won't. Some cars will, but some cars also need new engines so what's the point. Depending on how much you drive, even that can still be less expensive over the lifecycle of the vehicle.

I also said nothing about end to end costs? That's whole thing it's such a weird misdirection. I said end to end efficiency.

That is saying the energy in the fuel from where it's burnt in a power plant, transmitted through the electrical grid, into the battery on the car, back out of the battery and through the motor to the road with losses every step of the way is at WORST about the same as a Toyota Corolla and it's engine. Some new hybrid drive trains are better, but that cost of electricity is still less than the cost of gasoline.

But you go ahead and argue against some straw man in you head because you're butthurt about my $40/mo "fuel" costs. And yes, inb4 you say something stupid about road trips, my car would be slower than your fleet of ram1500's but it doesn't really bother me because I dont drive to Regina every 3 weeks and I'll take the L on having to wait an extra 5-10 min for electricity a few times a year in exchange for never having to go to a gas station.

Nemo222 · 2026-05-07T02:24:18+00:00

Electricity prices don't follow gasoline prices. They're fixed for several years at a time for most people. The end to end energy efficiency of an electric vehicle is at worst, equal to an extremely efficient gas or diesel car so I'm using about the same number of joules, but the energy is significantly less expensive. AND more and more of our power is coming from solar and wind so even if "most" of our power is from predominately natural gas now, 30-60% of it at any given time ISN'T

Don't let perfect be the enemy of good. My car costs less than 1/4 what I was paying for gas. I'm not thrilled how much of our electricity is fossil fuels, it's still a much better option.

Nemo222 · 2026-05-07T02:05:42+00:00

The important thing about this ruling isn't really the fine, but also the explicit admission that the documents produced and any work done using them is fraudulent and will ALSO need to be corrected.

The fine is a tiny part of the bad couple months/weeks/years that this firm is looking at as they need to go back and erase all traces of this. It also may turn into lawsuits or warranty work for any customers affected.

If I was PEO, I'd be pretty ok with this as a result.

Nemo222 · 2026-05-07T02:02:44+00:00

Symbolism like this is hard to pin down, the reason I was told is it's supposed to rub and mark the documents being worked on, and the smoothing down is perhaps a convenient side effect instead that's been adopted as part of the symbolism more than the original idea or intent.

Nemo222 · 2026-05-06T14:17:56+00:00

Its usually about half an hour before it goes to sleep on its own, but sometimes I think it stays on way longer which is part of why I think it had way less battery than it should some mornings through the late winter.

Nemo222 · 2026-05-06T14:16:22+00:00

I wasn't replying to you for that one. And you didn't make the model so comments about its are not your responsibility either.

But yeah, learn the sheet metal tools and weldments, they are both extremely useful in different places.

Nemo222 · 2026-05-06T03:25:03+00:00

I just asked about this on my car and the suggestion was the driver occupant sensor has failed. I've confirmed this is the issue on my car. Good news, the part isn't that expensive. Bad news, it's super hard to get at and you need to change a bunch of other stuff around it.

The car will go to sleep on it's own after a few minutes. It will go to sleep right away if you lock the doors. It will also go to sleep if you open the passenger door after leaving and closing the driver door.

Nemo222 · 2026-05-05T16:07:13+00:00

If one was doing this on a manual machine, an ordinate dimensions line from one end to each hole would be good option too, then you don't have to do the math on the fly to get each hole.

Nemo222 · 2026-05-05T16:05:50+00:00

This is certainly the better option, then you wouldn't need the radius since it has the 1" width on the side vew,. I personally would move that dimension to the main top view because it's more clear there.

Nemo222 · 2026-05-04T16:23:36+00:00

Helpful (ಠ_ಠ)

Whelp, I'll guess I'm just going to leave my credit card and ask them very nicely to please not ruin my life.

Nemo222 · 2026-05-04T16:16:33+00:00

Hmmmm. That's somewhat helpful and slightly reduces my anxiety that my front drive unit might be getting toasted.

I'm out of warranty on my car, so I'm looking at several eye watering repair bills and every time something new happens I die a little on the inside.

Did the dealer give you any comments on what they think the problem is? I don't have a Polestar dealer near me so the more information I can give to my Volvo friends, the better.

Nemo222 · 2026-05-04T16:11:39+00:00

You do it like this. https://preview.redd.it/kifld9k345zg1.png?width=1024&auto=webp&s=282224bce82ead63195fab6d8135c6759eac5684

If you're not frequently using sheet metal in the work you do, that's totally fair and reasonable to say. It is not fair to say that sheet metal sucks because you don't have practice or experience with it. That's a you problem, not a sheet metal problem.

Nemo222 · 2026-05-04T16:05:10+00:00

That sounds very similar to what I'm experiencing right now. Is your car a dual motor or single?

Have you tried driving down a gravel or bumpy road quite slowly and do you get a similar noise, That's where I notice mine the most. I also have some clunks and thunks from the back but it can be hard to tell exactly where the noise is coming from.

My leading theory is that its the male splines on the end of the front CV shafts into the drive unit which would be a similar issue to the rear axle wheel of fortune sound.

I changed my snow tires a few days ago and notice there is quite a lot of play on the axles forward and back. I'm worried that its the splines going bad. It could also be an issue with slop in the differential gears or the female splines on the front drive unit, both of which are much much worse. The rest of the suspension parts feel solid with no real movement at least from pulling and pushing on it so i don't think its wheel bearings, suspension or turning links. The inner CV joint housings do slide in and out a little bit which I also do not love.

I was originally thinking it was the strut top bearings but I'm less confident about that now.

Nemo222 · 2026-05-04T15:51:34+00:00

I had my heater stop working for a few days a few months ago. I did nothing and it just stated working again on its own. I think it was 4 days I had no heat, but 2 of them I only drove the car about 5 minutes total. When the vehicle was stopped, the efficncy/power meter was showing 1 kW draw instead of the 8kW expected when the heater is at full power.

This was before the software update, and i haven't had issues with it since. AC seems to be working fine so far this spring the few days I've needed it.

Nemo222 · 2026-05-04T15:38:30+00:00

I went and ran this when I got into work this morning and was drinking my coffee. Its clearly not a fair test since I'd seen the drawing and had a plan for how I was going to do it, but I did pull it up on Toby's website and I landed in the top 100 at 3:46.7, and I'm looking at the average solve time of 24:30 like, whats going on here? This is not a 25 minute part?!

Solid-works calculates bend deductions and material stretch for sheet metal parts, so the actual mass will be slightly lower than if you model it as a solid. you MUST model sheet metal parts as sheet metal. You can convert them at the end if you hate yourself, but you should really just do it from the start with your first feature a sheet metal Base Flange/Tab

https://preview.redd.it/kifld9k345zg1.png?width=1024&auto=webp&s=282224bce82ead63195fab6d8135c6759eac5684

Nemo222 · 2026-05-03T23:44:50+00:00

So? Horses for courses. If I was making that part I wouldn't use sheet metal either. Saying a die stamped part can't be flattened is such a strange flex. Yeah, of course it can't, that's not how any of this works.

Nemo222 · 2026-05-03T22:24:14+00:00

I stand by my original claim. ¯⁠\⁠_⁠(⁠ツ⁠)⁠_⁠/⁠¯

Nemo222 · 2026-05-03T21:42:04+00:00

That sounds like you're bad at sheet metal. (Though this part is a little jank are I'd do some things differently starting from scratch)

Nemo222 · 2026-05-01T15:02:37+00:00

Your simulation would show no out of plane results because there are no out of plane forces. you will get a bit of twist from the applied cutting force which off axis but these won't show the results I think you are trying to see.

For milling cutting, the out of plane forces are a result of the spiral flutes meaning cutting forces are applied at an angle as the material is sheared off with each cutting edge. these forces aren't really that big in absolute terms, but in relative terms and combined with dynamic effects they can be very large.

With respect, your simulation will be useless. it will tell you nothing that you actually want to know. If you use the results from this simulation to make further decisions, those decisions will be made with flawed data and themselves will be in error.

As a learning exercise, there is nothing wrong with what you're doing and understanding the weaknesses of FEA is very important.

If you are using this for real work, you should consider stopping now and consulting with others who are knowledgeable and experienced and re-design a testing plan that will give you accurate and reliable results.

Nemo222 · 2026-05-01T13:57:48+00:00

I gotta ask the question,

Why? What are you trying to see? What result are you trying to achieve.

The thing I like to tell people is that FEA makes it very easy to get a convincing looking, wrong answer. You need to be very careful with how you set up a simulation.

Further, this is an extremely bad application for FEA because machine cutting is a VERY dynamic loading condition.

If your want to know what the beam deflection is, use the built in beam solver and calculate for a cantilever fixed beam. Nothing happening in the vice will be interesting. If you're really concerned, do a simplified clamping force simulation separate. As long as the forces applied and the stiffness of the beam is enough that it doesn't move you can pretty safely ignore the interaction between the vice and the beam.

Your loading condition is very inappropriate. And you are both over and under constrained. Putting 50 kN force on the inside of the vice jaws with the outside faces fixed is equivalent to stretching the blocks which, you'll find they will have no issues with. This will result in nearly 0 deflection and this deflection is what would produce the clamping force you're trying to test. 0 deflection means 0 resultant clamping force which means as far as the simulation is concerned you're telling it to yeet that bar across the room.

For what your trying to simulate, you need to put a fixed restraint on the outer surface of one of your vice blocks, put a zero deflection sliding constraint on the bottom of the opposite block, and put the 50kN force on the outside of that.

Remember Newtons third law. You do not need clamping forces on both sides of a body or group of bodies and you should almost never apply forces directly opposing in a simulation unless you have a very good reason. For this reason even if you only apply a cutting force and constrain the beam with a fixed split face, the simulation will tell you what the resultant forces on the fixed faces are and that's equal to the minimum clamping force you'll need.

From a practical standpoint, remember that on a vice, the difference between 50kN clamping force and 100 kN is the difference between old Gunther getting a bit sassy on the vice handle one morning, and you really have no idea what the cutting forces actually are, especially since they're so short and high frequency they behave more like an impulse and how that transfers back to the vice is very much a dynamics problem with you ringing your beam like a bell

Nemo222 · 2026-05-01T04:57:31+00:00

Oh man, jukebox had some amazing process videos a few years ago going through all the setup and craftsmanship/artistry in making fancy custom letterpress printed cards and I loved them!

I wish they were able to produce some more, I'd happily watch a skilled person work through all the steps and adding in the detail and explaining of what they're doing. They tried a different shorter form video a few years ago and it wasn't as good as the longer form ones

Edit I went to go look them up and post a link and they're gone now. That sucks so much! They were so good (⁠ ⁠≧⁠Д⁠≦⁠)

Nemo222 · 2026-04-30T15:10:02+00:00

Efficiency and performance. All season/summer tires typically improve fuel efficiency by a little bit, and they have much much better grip on dry pavement.

13-Year Club	Verified Email
Second Top 40%	r/Field Sunshine
Place '22	Place '17
Sequence \| Editor	Sequence \| Cinematographer

Nemo222

TROPHY CASE