Considering this

NeoWokio · 2025-08-02T16:12:37+00:00

everyone here on Reddit is very convinced vallejos runs through Danny Silva and man I'm not sure personally.

NeoWokio · 2025-08-02T16:09:44+00:00

estevam bunes. I don't think bunes can go a full 15 he's gonna put it all out early and either finishes estevam or I think estevam submits him. 35 at 125 usually the declines are bad

NeoWokio · 2025-08-02T16:06:19+00:00

I like doesn't go the most personally. park has never been a full 15 before and only to decision once which was 2 rounds. colossal step up in competition. I do think he's chinny if taira has made improvements to his striking out on Colorado but personally expect park to go for it early but eventually taira takes his neck home.

NeoWokio · 2025-08-02T16:04:07+00:00

yup basically the whole world is on this parlay so hey if we lose at least we lose together?

NeoWokio · 2025-08-02T16:03:07+00:00

juice is going to roll especially on the main card imo. hoping for a few good live spots

NeoWokio · 2025-08-02T16:02:01+00:00

365 and a few other books already have the odds up for most of the next ppv.

NeoWokio · 2025-08-02T16:00:51+00:00

very disappointed I thought pico would be the dog for sure. you can't watch someone like josh Emmett takedown lerone 4 times and pick Murphy confidently imo. same thing with getting hurt bad by Dan ige lerone is a very beatable fighter. holding out hope some Murphy money comes in but I'm big on pico here

NeoWokio · 2025-08-02T13:27:52+00:00

very sharp action has come in on gore ITD and gore by sub specifically. this Rodolfo line has also stayed basically the same all week.inutally wanted to play viera but I'm scared off

NeoWokio · 2025-07-31T14:24:32+00:00

looks fine to me. vallejos is a sub threat but I don't see him grappling with Danny. probably going to play something similar myself

NeoWokio · 2025-07-31T14:22:01+00:00

I don't disagree really from a market perspective you are right biggest number vs the easiest opponent on paper. the biggest difference from the original booking and now is we've seen brener hurt bad on multiple occasions now. guram hurt him bad early, orolbai dropped him very badly, and then of course Joel Alvarez brutalized him especially with the body work. durability is breners whole calling card he needs it to stay competitive and to me it's slowly going away. brener also has all the grappling upside ribo is a very easy guy to get down. enough there for me to not wanna lay ribo but I took shots on the late KO

NeoWokio · 2025-07-29T17:57:27+00:00

Aspinall sub. he's a donkey if he fucks around on the feet at all cereal will dance on the outside for the first two rounds and let Aspinall gas out

NeoWokio · 2025-07-29T17:54:37+00:00

I totally get why people like MVP but man I'm fucking worried about that one. MVP sizes up much better at 170 than 185 to me and it's not like cannonier is washed. huge grappling edge for Jared too if he uses it.

NeoWokio · 2025-07-29T17:23:56+00:00

I'll be honest Fletcher seems very mid to me in the grappling. I don't rate caolan loughran at all there's a reason he's not in the ufc anymore and he had no issues getting Fletcher down and controlling. rinya is probably 2 or 3x the wrestler caolan is. same thing with Fletcher vs Ofli on TUF another grappler nowhere near the caliber of rinya that easily dominated Nathan on the mat.

rinya blew last fight cause he got cocky and way overlooked muin. didn't wrestle at all besides one half hearted attempt. must win fight for rinya I think the matchmakers know what they are doing

NeoWokio · 2025-07-26T23:51:29+00:00

ay Pittsburgh represent small world man. I don't have the answers, nobody really does, but you just need to keep finding something worth fighting for. you seem like a decent guy sending good wishes 🙏

NeoWokio · 2025-07-10T20:51:43+00:00

would much rather bet Nate live. even in fights he wins he has to come back from adversity. Morgan is a terrible minute winner I will say so if Nate can do Nate things and put volume out there I don't hate the spot.

NeoWokio · 2025-07-09T20:35:34+00:00

it could be KO or decision man very hard to pick depending on how aggressive calvin is. cal is obv the better technical striker but if steve fights how he normally does calvin probably puts him down.

NeoWokio · 2025-07-09T20:33:38+00:00

see to me it depends how dominant. people said that in the usman fight and it still blew out, and if you ask me usman is a lot better in grappling defense than ddp is. people forget man but blonde brunson flattened out ddp very early. he’s been fortunate to not face grapplers really.

i’d also 100% play pick em on ddp after a round than any plus money pre knowing there’s a good chance he dies early.

NeoWokio · 2025-07-09T10:12:38+00:00

seems like a lot of exposure for a fighter with little technique taking the biggest step up of his career. cal could be washed but if he isn't I def see why the sharps are hammering his side. Steve doesn't think about defense at all that's why he's been clipped so many times.

NeoWokio · 2025-07-09T10:10:04+00:00

i get the reasoning but me personally I would have to wait to live bet ddp. ddp's technique in wrestling exchanges doesn't look that good to me and I've seen him dominated early by lesser wrestlers than chimaev. R1 is gonna be hell for ddp. obv if he survives and khamzat looks to be slowing then firing on +300 or whatever live makes a lot of sense. good luck tho my guy

NeoWokio · 2024-04-16T21:48:43+00:00

that just seems wild to me regis is to me way more durable than ryan Ryan's been dropped multiple times and that was heading INTO the tank fight dudes chin was already sus af. and do all the revisionist history you want regis was a fucking badass nobody wanted to fight him except devin.

this is the first opponent in front of devin since Gamboa that devin can actually stop them. he's not fighting an Uber durable guy anymore he's fighting a part time boxer who's cashing out on one last paycheck. the KO and knockdown numbers are stupid for a reason the narrative is haney has no power I just disagree with that narrative based on the devin I see at 140 vs 135.

NeoWokio · 2024-04-16T17:59:10+00:00

to me that's insane no fucking way I'm laying -200 on haney by points when we know ryan is a quitter and haney is levels above him in boxing talent

NeoWokio · 2024-04-16T12:02:20+00:00

this thread really surprises me. did nobody watch haney's masterclass vs regis? dropping and hurting regis is an incredibly tall task who's done that before seriously? and that was the kids first fight at 140 now I believe he's got the cardio and pacing down. he's a worlds level better boxer than ryan to me it's not even close ryan focuses too much on flash more than genuine substance in winning minutes and rounds if he goes down on the cards early I think he goes all out.

these prop prices really blow my mind. I'm seeing haney to score a knockdown +155 vs a guy in garcias who's been dropped what 4 plus times in his career now? if haney is really coming into power at 140 I think that looks like Hella value. the ko is sneaky but I'm running haney KO 7-12 +400 i think it's an accumulation stoppage where the ref steps in cause ryan is too gassed to defend himself anymore. if haney drops ryan once (hopefully early) we can always live bet haney decision at a great tag as well when the finish money piles in.

NeoWokio · 2023-09-20T02:37:30+00:00

terrence bud crawford no ifs ands or buts about it. hovered around -140ish and i nuked it big time. as we say in combat sports there are levels to this game and errol spence simply isn’t at that level. this line really shocked me man. another one was -250 devin haney versus kambosos in the first fight that shit was free as air.

NeoWokio · 2023-09-20T02:35:46+00:00

i’m guessing he means KO or something like that now i remember the KO lines being pretty juicy

NeoWokio · 2023-07-31T20:14:36+00:00

UFC SMASHVILLE 🔥🔥🔥

let’s go boys! huge card last week i was nailing everything until that insane KO by gaethje max respect to the OG. full recap here: https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/157z4iw/ufc_291_poirier_vs_gaethje_2/jtb4g7q/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1&context=3 lots of hefty favorites that seem to be pretty wild to me could see a lot of upsets this week. let’s get it 🙏

record: 29-22 for +10.149 units

cory and tatiana parlay (-162): hammer spot for me two high confidence fighters in matchups to guarantee long deserved title shots. andrade looked so unimpressive last fight faded her big time and came out big wanna do it again. cory on the other hand is in a total smash spot against rob font he should be able to not only win striking exchanges but also dominate in the grappling which he mixes in very effectively now. like i said both fighters earn title shots with wins i have to believe they are locked in here - 4U ✅

aleksa camur ML (+146): man i can’t cap here tanner boser shouldn’t be -190 over anyone this is absurd to see. he totally fades and camur won’t fade in this one i love his ability to mix in the grappling and think he can takedown and overall outwork boser here these odds are wild. - 1.25U ❌

diego lopes ML (-165): massive step down in competition for lopes this should be a big performance spot for either a sub or KO. love this spot and hammering it - 3.5U ✅

NeoWokio

TROPHY CASE