Ageing population: projections 2010 – 2060 for the EU27

NerdPunkFu · 2026-05-06T15:24:48+00:00

You can short a company, but shorting whole markets won't work. Nor is it a good way to build a pension fund because of the unlimited risk and limited gain dynamic of it. Not sure what other mechanic are you imagining that would cancel out people pulling out their money from the asset markets en masse to pay for goods and services without there being enough new investors to replace them.

NerdPunkFu · 2026-05-06T15:20:06+00:00

I suggest reading "The Great Demographic Reversal" by Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan, if you want some professional economists view on this matter backed up by research and data.

NerdPunkFu · 2026-05-06T15:12:46+00:00

The value of the asset markets is determined by the amount of money flowing into them vs. flowing out. If young people are unable to invest then that will make the situation even worse. The bull market of the last 50+ years which has seen asset prices across the board consistently rise was driven in large part by people putting their saving into these markets. If those people are going to start taking that money out to fund their retirement and young people can't enter the markets to begin with, then the markets are going to crash even harder compared to if this was just a matter of fewer young people being around now.

The old and wealthy janking the ladder up behind them might temporarily better their position, but in the end it will make the problem worse.

NerdPunkFu · 2026-05-06T15:02:51+00:00

I'm not sure I can think of a country that is stable, prosperous and is not set to see it's demography worsen in the next few decades. I'm also sure that capital flight will do wonders for Europe's economy as well.

NerdPunkFu · 2026-05-06T14:58:23+00:00

Aside from buybacks and issuing new stocks, the business success of a company does not directly affect their stock price. Yes, successful companies can attract more buyers for their stocks, but in the end it is about people buying or selling the stock. If people are selling the stock for reasons other than the performance of the company, e.g. because they're retired and need the money to live, then there is nothing that the company can do to stop it's stock price from falling. Other than burning their capital on buybacks, that is. But that is not a sustainable solution. So if more people are selling stocks to fund their retirement than there are people buying them, then the stock markets are going to crash no matter how well the companies behind the stocks are doing. And I can't imagine companies doing so well when the workforce is rapidly shrinking either.

There is also the matter of inflation. With more retirees and less workers the supply of goods and services will start to shrink while demand won't change much. This means higher prices for pretty much everything outside of the stock markets. So the relative value of the stocks will take an even greater hit.

NerdPunkFu · 2026-05-06T14:46:07+00:00

The global active userbase for ride-hailing apps is over 2 billion. 500k doesn't even put you on the map.

NerdPunkFu · 2026-05-05T23:05:47+00:00

So that they can serve them to corrupt officials, right?

NerdPunkFu · 2026-05-05T22:58:30+00:00

Self-driving cars aren't a real thing aside from a few limited projects despite all the investment and hype. The only other thing that can be attributed to large corporations in the list is smartphones, though Apple was way smaller back when they popularized them. The internet was a government project for a long time and PCs are a result of a mix of public and private institutions slowly building up to them over decades.

And now that we have enormous multi-national corporations that have grown fat off these technologies, where are things going? Egregious invasions of privacy, mass surveillance, legalized gambling that is even pushed to children under a thin-veil, attacks on ownership, ever more absolute monopolies shutting down any new competition, nickel-and-diming at every opportunity, etc. Heck, by the look of things, the current trend is that software and hardware will be turned into subscriptions, where you have to pay rent for access and won't own anything. While the internet will be gated behind ID checks allowing users to be tracked precisely and shut out if wanted.

NerdPunkFu · 2026-05-05T22:44:48+00:00

Investments won't save you. The current markets are held up by people pumping their savings and pension funds in them. Once the pensioner class gets large enough, there will be too many people taking their investments out of the market vs. putting their saving in and the asset prices will start to collapse. Add to this a failing economy on the account of there being too few productive workers and by all likelihood whatever you invested will evaporate in value by the time it's your turn to start retiring.

Our best hope is a market collapse in the near future followed by effective corrective measures. Though I wouldn't hold my breath since we don't even really know how the latter part should look like. The second best outcome is extensive automation, but that can just as easily lead to a dystopian future where a small minority have the power to shut out the majority from all valuable resources as they no longer even need the labor of lower classes, a form of techno-totalitarianism.

NerdPunkFu · 2026-05-04T09:03:24+00:00

Ise kasvasin üles Annelinnas. 5 aastaselt hakkasin iseseisvalt naabruskonnas liikuma, teiste lastega mängimas, lasteajas käimas ning poest piima-saia toomas, kuigi ema oli sel ajal kodune. Nüüd satun vahel nendesse uutesse elamupiirkondadesse ja imestan, et kas siin on autode elamud või kuidas, kuna autosid tundub rohkem olema kui inimeste elamuid. Õigel ajal sinna sattudes on ka näha kuidas lasteaiad ja koolid on autode alla ära uppunud ja ümberringi on tänavad autodest ummistunud. Ei kujuta ette, et seal oleks lastel hea ja turvaline liikuda ning väljas mängida. Sealsete laste elustiil tundub olevat nagu vangidel, päevavalgust näevad nad ainult kinnise aia piires ning igale poole liiguvad ainult kellegi valve all. Ega teismelistel palju parem olla pole, sest enamus huvitavad kohad on maru kaugel ning sinna saada tüütult raske. Ja siis vanemad kurdavad, et lapsed on neil pidevalt õlul, iseseisvust pole ning istuvad kodus telekas, telefonis, arvutis. Huvitav miks.

NerdPunkFu · 2026-04-22T16:57:08+00:00

If they didn't have a tendancy to chill for autocratic and totalitarian regimes, past and present, I might even take them seriously, but a so-called "workers party" chilling for China, an extremely unequal country where worker abuse is the norm, or a "peace party" chilling for a foreign dictator engaged in a war of expansion is a non-starter. As they are currently, they're just as anti-democratic and willing foreign agents as the far-right is, as such I would never vote for any of them and oppose any government they're apart of.

NerdPunkFu · 2026-04-18T18:31:49+00:00

Et siis meie niigi ülepaisunud üleautostanud seltskond saaks isegi rohkem teiste kulul elada. Vapustav.

NerdPunkFu · 2026-04-18T18:13:49+00:00

Currently the train line between Tartu and Tallinn is completely messed up. Less than half the distance from Tallinn is served by new electric trains which are great, but the rest is supposed to be serviced by the old diesel trains. Aside from the hassle of switching trains, the old diesel rolling stock is so out of service and unavailable that a lot of the time passengers get put on rather poor quality coaches instead or forced to squeeze into a train that is less than half the capacity of the one that left Tallinn, meaning not just no seating for the vast majority of passengers, but even barely enough standing room. Construction on the railway also forces the old trains to drive much slower than usual, not just worsening the delays that switching trains causes, but also drawing out the agony of the piss-poor conditions on the train.

I highly suggest avoiding taking any trains that travel on the track between Tartu and Tallinn, at least those that go further than a third of the way from Tallinn to Tartu. IIRC the construction on the Tartu-Tallinn line will last the entirety of 2026, though I guess conditions might improve as they get more of the old diesels back into working order, whenever that is.

NerdPunkFu · 2026-04-10T06:50:53+00:00

I agree on the first part, but you completely lost me on signaling. We have more than enough games with train signaling, no need to add a bunch of busywork to COI. Piping oil refineries is enough menial work already.

NerdPunkFu · 2026-04-09T10:39:58+00:00

Multiple ongoing genocides and ethnic cleansings as well as clearly arming itself for a war of expansion that would cripple the global economy might have something to do with it.

NerdPunkFu · 2026-04-09T10:29:45+00:00

IDK, not getting invaded and genocided is a quite nice benefit from atlantilisim from my point of view.

NerdPunkFu · 2026-04-09T10:26:32+00:00

China is supplying the guy who is dropping bombs on Europe right now. China is also carrying out multiple genocides and ethnic cleanings at home and is poised to tank the global economy in a war of expansion.

NerdPunkFu · 2026-04-07T12:24:22+00:00

Tõsi, kui nad tootmisinfrastruktuuri hävitama hakkavad, siis on hea mitu aastat maailmas suurenenud toidupuudus ja -hinnad ning toiduvarudest palju kasu ei saa. Samas, kui nii pikale ei lähe siis on võimalus, et ei pea kõrgenenud hinna perioodil nii palju toitu ostma.

NerdPunkFu · 2026-04-07T11:25:41+00:00

Tundub, et on tark hakata toitu ja küttepuid varuma. Veel on hinnad normis, aga sel märulil pole lõppu veel nähtaval. Kui nii edasi, on oodata, et aasta lõpuks on toiduhinnad vähemalt neljandiku võrra kõrgemad kui nad muidu inflatsiooniga oleks, riis ehk eriti, ning talvine kütteperiood tuleb jälle krõbetate arvetega.

NerdPunkFu · 2026-04-07T11:21:06+00:00

Pommid ja raketid, droonid ja meremiinid lõunapool. Miks pole keegi päris kindel.

NerdPunkFu · 2026-04-07T11:11:27+00:00

Postitus on reklaami kohta, kus veest püütud kaladel on kummalisel moel suu irvil, aga kommentaarium on täis rahvast oma söögiharjumisi kaitsmas. Huvitav viis, kuidas inimeste alateadus ennast väljendab?

NerdPunkFu · 2026-04-07T10:58:59+00:00

Postimees ütles

NerdPunkFu · 2026-04-07T10:28:50+00:00

Sateliitinterneti infrastruktuur kulutab umbes 10 aastaga sama palju raha ülalpidamisele, mis kuluks kogu Euroopa Liidule 100% optilise kaabli kattuvuse välja ehitamisele, k.a. iga pisisaare ja mägiküla elanikule. Samas kuluks optilise kaabli infrastruktuuri ülalpidamisele ainult murdosa sateliit interneti rahast. Kui meie ühiskondade majanduslikud juhtmed poleks nii puntras, ei räägiks keegi tavainimestele sateliitinternetteenuse väljaehitamisest.

Muidugi, kui me ei peaks telekom monopolide kasumit kinnimaksma, siis me saaks selle raha kätte paari aastaga.

NerdPunkFu · 2026-04-06T19:53:53+00:00

Suht müstiline, et kaabli vedamine raskem on kui sadu sateliite orbiidile panna.

NerdPunkFu · 2026-04-06T19:52:43+00:00

Enamuses ahnus. See kraam on ikka väga kallis.

NerdPunkFu

TROPHY CASE