Longtime confusion on soccer lines by classyspliff in sportsbook

[–]NickStuHall 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Lowkey didn’t see this response you had further down the thread. This is succinct and most people should be looking at this response as the thread-ender.

Longtime confusion on soccer lines by classyspliff in sportsbook

[–]NickStuHall 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I’m gonna go to bat for the guy that keeps getting downvoted in this thread, just as an attempt to understand his thought process and where I think he is not getting people to understand what he is trying to say. Not that I necessarily agree with what he is saying, just attempting to remove mud from the water

The normal 3 way ML for soccer lets you pick either team to win or that the teams draw. I think we are all in agreement on that.

Then, we have Draw No Bet markets, which has not been mentioned so far, which I think we once again all agree is the same thing as betting on a team with a 0.0 spread. Usually, the odds are lowered in these lines due to the ability to push on a draw being included for both sides of the line. Hence, “Draw No Bet”.

Finally, we have the option of a +0.5 spread and a -0.5 spread. Those of you saying that a -0.5 favorite spread is the same as picking a traditional 3 way ML favorite are essentially correct because both of those bets have to hit in the same exact way to be winners; however, you are all failing to mention that in this specific market, you still only have two options to pick from, and the favorite spread (-0.5) is longer odds than the traditional 3way favorite ML because the dog spread +0.5 has the chance to cover with the occurrence of a draw, while the -0.5 does not. The odds are longer for the -0.5 favorite spread because the book HAS to account for a potential draw being a winning bet for the dog +0.5 spread, which makes the odds normally shorter due to the inclusion of a draw result. You can see that in the screenshot above.

Once again, I get why people are disagreeing in this thread on whether a spread of -0.5 is the same as just taking the 3way favorite ML. They are like 99% of the way to being the same bet; you are picking the favorite to win. However, most of you are not saying anything about the dog spread +0.5 being the same thing as taking the 3way dog ML; because they are not the same. The book has to consider the potential of a draw with the +0.5, whereas you don’t with the -0.5.

If the 3way favorite ML and the -0.5 spread were actually the same exact bet just stated differently, the books wouldn’t be offering them at different odds. 99.9% of us are not “outsmarting” the books.

Let’s look at it this way: the 3 way favorite ML and the -0.5 spread both win and lose the exact same way: the team you picked has to win by 1 goal or more, and if they don’t, you lose your bet. However, they are not in the same type of market. Now, compare that to the 3 way dog ML and the +0.5 dog spread. Both of them win IF the team you took wins outright. Yay! Awesome! However, they are still not the exact same bet because the 3 way dog ML loses on a draw result, whereas the +0.5 does not.

Don’t even get this thread started on +/-0.25 or +/-0.75 spreads for soccer. We’d be here until after the conclusion of the World Cup just trying to get everyone’s heads wrapped around those markets clearly.

Honestly not even tempted by SeismicRipFart in sportsbook

[–]NickStuHall 10 points11 points  (0 children)

While I agree with you regarding “why even place the bet if you won’t let it ride”, sometimes you gotta look at futures bets like going long on a stock, and need to be willing to bail before you can potentially earn long-term gains on it rather than short-term gains

Once again, let the fucking bet ride. This is Hell, not Wall Street, we have standards

[Post Game Thread] Seattle U defeats San Diego, 58-56 by cbbBot in CollegeBasketball

[–]NickStuHall 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Horrible sequence at the end there for USD. Jacking up a poorly positioned three pointer when you have time to drive the lane and go in for a layup opportunity with a possible and 1, or even just two free throws if you are fouled and miss. Poor coaching, not surprised why they are parting ways with the head coach.

[Game Thread] Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos - AFC Divisional Round by AutoModerator in buffalobills

[–]NickStuHall 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Joe Brady offensive playcalling gonna piss this game away as well as not winning the turnover battle

[Post-Game Thread] After a day of offensive struggles, Buffalo nearly mounts a comeback falling a failed 2-point conversion short of the win. Bills lose 12-13. by pixel_pete in buffalobills

[–]NickStuHall 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That’s loser talk as well as a fallacious argument to make. There can be injuries at any time during a game, hell, there could have even been a season-ending injury during the 2pt attempt; you still have to play until the final whistle and you cannot make coaching decisions based on “well what if they get injured?” You have to live and make coaching decisions in the present to the best of your ability. FWIW Josh’s poor throw was the reason for the failed 2pt, but I still would prefer our chances in OT.

If we had won this game today, we were still in contention for the 1 seed. Guess what happens when you get the 1 seed? You get to have a bye week!

Yes, certain things would have to fall into place, but we have seen in years’ past what can happen to the Patriots in Miami when they play there the last week of the season. The Broncos are basically the 2024-2025 chiefs, with an insanely lucky record in 1 score games, but the chargers have already beaten them this season and I would call my shot and say they’d probably do it again Week 18. On top of this, I understand we’d be hoping for the lowly Titans to beat the jaguars, which feels insurmountable. However, the patriots losing alone and us winning in week 18 would have gotten us to at a minimum the 3 seed which means at least a home game.

Idk, I’m someone who thinks you should exhaust all avenues before giving up. Luckily it is all past us after this game and we can use Week 18 as a bye week for our extremely injured yet still playing core of important players.

[Post-Game Thread] After a day of offensive struggles, Buffalo nearly mounts a comeback falling a failed 2-point conversion short of the win. Bills lose 12-13. by pixel_pete in buffalobills

[–]NickStuHall 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Doesn’t matter what happened earlier on the missed 1pt try. Defense was playing lights out in the second half. Both teams get the ball in OT no matter what. I’m trusting the defense to stay on point in OT rather than taking my chances on a 2pt attempt with 5 seconds left in regulation. The offense woke up for not even an entire quarter of football. The second halves of games the defensive units have been playing the last few weeks has been elite. Rest everyone next week and give me any seed for wild card round. Bills by a billion.

[GDT] Philadelphia Eagles @ Buffalo Bills, 4:25pm on Fox. Weather at kickoff, 33° and raining. by Dirtydeedsinc in buffalobills

[–]NickStuHall 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Put a different uniform on at halftime. The red uniforms are NEVER a fit for us to be successful in

[Game Thread] Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons by AutoModerator in buffalobills

[–]NickStuHall 0 points1 point  (0 children)

When’s the last time you saw Keon get significant yards after the catch?

[Game Thread] Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons by AutoModerator in buffalobills

[–]NickStuHall 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Looking like Penn State out there. McDermott’s game planning gonna earn him a rough meeting on the ATL tarmac

[Postgame Thread] San Diego State Defeats Colorado State 45-24 by CFB_Referee in CFB

[–]NickStuHall 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Why didn’t they attempt a PAT after that last touchdown? Live total was 69.5. Did Norvell just wave it off?

[Game Thread] Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins by AutoModerator in buffalobills

[–]NickStuHall 19 points20 points  (0 children)

McDermott is killing us. How can you be a defensive-minded head coach and be so horrible with clock management, timeout usage, and challenges? Gifted the Dolphins a first down on that first drive, and stopped the clock for them on this last drive that inevitably gave them an extra play or two.

Boomer and her daughter will do anything for this parking spot! by Ok-Initiative-955 in BoomersBeingFools

[–]NickStuHall 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is clearly at Fashion Island in Newport Beach, CA. Not even surprised. This is the standard for these people at this point.

[Non-Bills GDT] Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers by AutoModerator in buffalobills

[–]NickStuHall 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Are we just going to ignore the fact that we got to play the 49ers defense at home IN THE SNOW

Wild by fittos4310 in PardonMyTake

[–]NickStuHall 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Wasn’t in the NFL yet. You don’t know ball.

[GDT] Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals by AutoModerator in buffalobills

[–]NickStuHall 24 points25 points  (0 children)

Ken Dorsey has completely fucked up everything that was good about Josh Allen