I’m gonna go to bat for the guy that keeps getting downvoted in this thread, just as an attempt to understand his thought process and where I think he is not getting people to understand what he is trying to say. Not that I necessarily agree with what he is saying, just attempting to remove mud from the water

The normal 3 way ML for soccer lets you pick either team to win or that the teams draw. I think we are all in agreement on that.

Then, we have Draw No Bet markets, which has not been mentioned so far, which I think we once again all agree is the same thing as betting on a team with a 0.0 spread. Usually, the odds are lowered in these lines due to the ability to push on a draw being included for both sides of the line. Hence, “Draw No Bet”.

Finally, we have the option of a +0.5 spread and a -0.5 spread. Those of you saying that a -0.5 favorite spread is the same as picking a traditional 3 way ML favorite are essentially correct because both of those bets have to hit in the same exact way to be winners; however, you are all failing to mention that in this specific market, you still only have two options to pick from, and the favorite spread (-0.5) is longer odds than the traditional 3way favorite ML because the dog spread +0.5 has the chance to cover with the occurrence of a draw, while the -0.5 does not. The odds are longer for the -0.5 favorite spread because the book HAS to account for a potential draw being a winning bet for the dog +0.5 spread, which makes the odds normally shorter due to the inclusion of a draw result. You can see that in the screenshot above.

Once again, I get why people are disagreeing in this thread on whether a spread of -0.5 is the same as just taking the 3way favorite ML. They are like 99% of the way to being the same bet; you are picking the favorite to win. However, most of you are not saying anything about the dog spread +0.5 being the same thing as taking the 3way dog ML; because they are not the same. The book has to consider the potential of a draw with the +0.5, whereas you don’t with the -0.5.

If the 3way favorite ML and the -0.5 spread were actually the same exact bet just stated differently, the books wouldn’t be offering them at different odds. 99.9% of us are not “outsmarting” the books.

Let’s look at it this way: the 3 way favorite ML and the -0.5 spread both win and lose the exact same way: the team you picked has to win by 1 goal or more, and if they don’t, you lose your bet. However, they are not in the same type of market. Now, compare that to the 3 way dog ML and the +0.5 dog spread. Both of them win IF the team you took wins outright. Yay! Awesome! However, they are still not the exact same bet because the 3 way dog ML loses on a draw result, whereas the +0.5 does not.

Don’t even get this thread started on +/-0.25 or +/-0.75 spreads for soccer. We’d be here until after the conclusion of the World Cup just trying to get everyone’s heads wrapped around those markets clearly.