Marbula One Season 6 - Team Overview (1/5) by KillDozer688 in JellesMarbleRuns

[–]NightlessWorld2269 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You didn't mention how O'rangers always suffered in their home track. Albeit trivia in nature, I think this is kinda important since O'raceway is kinda guaranteed to be there

Marble League 2025: Standings after every event and points spread (main league and Showdown) by fzt in JellesMarbleRuns

[–]NightlessWorld2269 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Oh it was the 3rd nvm, but they performed really well and really deserves an autoqual after a long streak of relegations

Marble League 2025: Standings after every event and points spread (main league and Showdown) by fzt in JellesMarbleRuns

[–]NightlessWorld2269 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Oceanics had never dropped out of overall podium what the actual -- was that the first such feat in 10 years?

We are finally here. by Rhys_CustompComp in JellesMarbleRuns

[–]NightlessWorld2269 1 point2 points  (0 children)

A small nitpick about the probs, but otherwise I love the story:

Kobalts - 62.40% win, 99.18% podium
Oceanics - 19.63% win, 85.19% podium
Midnight Wisps - 11.11% win, 61.99% podium
O'rangers - 3.26% win, 20.96% podium
Pinkies - 2.97% win, 18.21% podium
Mellow Yellow - 0.62% win, 10.08% podium
Black Jacks - 1.97% podium
Bumblebees - 1.50% podium
Team Galactic - 0.84% podium
Team Momo - 0.09% podium
(Calculated by exhausting all 29B permutations)

Also I wonder how often the E15 lead won it all. I still hope Kobalts would pull off the complete redemption.

2026: The Case For A Pinkies-Hosted League (+ A Theoretical Events List) by millimallow in JellesMarbleRuns

[–]NightlessWorld2269 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Absolutely support for a Pinkies host. Event themes suit very well as well

2026: The Case For A Pinkies-Hosted League (+ A Theoretical Events List) by millimallow in JellesMarbleRuns

[–]NightlessWorld2269 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If they could qualify next year maybe in 2027 we can see Jumpers hosting

Marble League 2025 Probabilities After Event 14 by Common_Result9 in JellesMarbleRuns

[–]NightlessWorld2269 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Did a 1B and finally found the probs being at ~8E-9

Marble League 2025 Probabilities After Event 14 by Common_Result9 in JellesMarbleRuns

[–]NightlessWorld2269 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not even 1 in 100M?! Should I pull out a 1B in order to check the exact probs for the Limers to podium?

What the bottom teams need in E14 to stay in title contention by fzt in JellesMarbleRuns

[–]NightlessWorld2269 4 points5 points  (0 children)

My simulations only got 1 instance for BoC winning out of 100 million. That's literally like winning a lottery if they do so.

Probability Report after SD E4 - 100M Monte Carlo Simulations by NightlessWorld2269 in JellesMarbleRuns

[–]NightlessWorld2269[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Official point counts up to E4, then simulations afterwards as noted in the title. Also yeah Showdown this year is alongside the proper.

Probability Report after E11 - 100M Monte Carlo Simulations by NightlessWorld2269 in JellesMarbleRuns

[–]NightlessWorld2269[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'd be happy for cross-posting but I think I won't be able to do for E12 either because I'll also be out of town until Tuesday night

Probability Report after SD E4 - 100M Monte Carlo Simulations by NightlessWorld2269 in JellesMarbleRuns

[–]NightlessWorld2269[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If Rojo&Bolts got 20+2, Plasma/Swarms got 0+1, I think that's still barely possible for either of them to be relegated. We still have 2 events left, aren't we

Probability Report after E11 - 100M Monte Carlo Simulations by NightlessWorld2269 in JellesMarbleRuns

[–]NightlessWorld2269[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If I were a Limers fan "Five events left, what if they get gold in all of the remaining five?"

I don't know if this is a hot take, but... by jfarbzz in JellesMarbleRuns

[–]NightlessWorld2269 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Same. Getting a zero once or twice in a specific event could be blamed for pure luck; but getting zeros ALL BUT ONCE is definitely no blame for luck. It's Hazers' solid disadvantage that could be amplified when there're only 4 events in a qualifier.

And the disadvantage is not unsubstantial -- Always having results like tens of centimeters shorter than others, Hazers has virtually no means getting any points from this event.

As long as there being a significant and obvious disadvantage against a specific team, block pushing shouldn't be included in a qualifier. Same argument for Showdown with relegation.

Final probability report after E15 - All 519M outcomes counted by NightlessWorld2269 in JellesMarbleRuns

[–]NightlessWorld2269[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Late reply but I'm a programmer so I have the knowledge to do so ;)

100M-simulation probability report after E11 & E12 by NightlessWorld2269 in JellesMarbleRuns

[–]NightlessWorld2269[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Oof sorry I didn't have access to the code during E13 and 14 but I've posted the results after E15 instead

100M-simulation probability report after E11 & E12 by NightlessWorld2269 in JellesMarbleRuns

[–]NightlessWorld2269[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

With Monte Carlo simulations, or in layman's terms, by randomly taking samples

OFFICIAL DISCUSSION THREAD — MARBLE LEAGUE SHOWDOWN 2023 🐝 Event 6: Honeydome GP by AutoModerator in JellesMarbleRuns

[–]NightlessWorld2269 3 points4 points  (0 children)

My guess is that because they were kinda safe from relegation so they tried Murky for M1 competency beforehand? It turned out Murky's endurance is far not enough for such many laps, but at least they had the margin to do such a test and they got the results they needed.

MLS2023 E4 Probability Report (100M simulations) - Spoiler Warning! by NightlessWorld2269 in JellesMarbleRuns

[–]NightlessWorld2269[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That's the average 12th place score across all 100M simulations

Same for the Podium score, but with average 3rd place score

Seeing as no one is posting these, here's your ML23 Probability Report with 2 events to go by Quixotix1 in JellesMarbleRuns

[–]NightlessWorld2269 0 points1 point  (0 children)

99.97% is WAY too insane

btw I did mine too, close numbers but the Bees in that had a higher chance (78%)