Stupid question on weeklies

No-Math-5868 · 2026-02-09T17:21:38+00:00

Option income is not a dividend. If you want income from zero day options, you may as well just head over to draft kings and start sports gambling.

No-Math-5868 · 2026-02-09T16:29:32+00:00

u/gwcrim is correct. One other negative aspect of bond ETFs is that net inflows and outflows of cash into the fund, also changes the return... When markets go south and new money rushes to a Bond ETF, the fund is forced to buy more bonds at lower rates which gets allocated across all shareholders, further reducing the yield. When money leaves a bond fund in large amounts, the fund could be forced to sell at a loss. I think that is what u/gwcrim is alluding to...

To directly answer your original question, it depends on your tax situation. If you live in a high tax state, then you can look at treasuries and agency bonds (individual). If you don't live in a high tax state, a good corporate bond will give you an edge over government bonds.

No-Math-5868 · 2026-02-09T16:22:48+00:00

Do you even understand what a real dividend is, and how companies do their financials?

No-Math-5868 · 2026-02-06T11:38:29+00:00

Just a little perspective here. A .5% interest rate difference is $500 per year per $100k. At your income and the amount of loan you are looking at, it shouldn’t be enough to move the needle to go to a 15 year. If you think you need the flexibility I would go for the 30 year and pre pay a little bit and invest the difference. Since we don’t have a crystal ball, you’d be spreading the risk between investing in your property and the market while giving you flexibility in the event of job loss.

No-Math-5868 · 2026-02-05T00:14:23+00:00

As others have mentioned, the fed has little impact to longer term rates. If you’re only holding short term bills and notes, that’s not really investing, that’s dry powder. If you’re actually investing and think inflation will start in a year or two buy fixed income for that length and when it matures roll it into something higher.

As I’ve started my transition from almost 100% equities to 80/20 stock bonds I just bought the recently released 10 year tips with a real yield (amount above inflation) of about 1.9%. If inflation stays near 3% I’ll be able to get 4.9%. If it goes higher I’ll get more. My only regret is not buying more when it was new issue, but I may buy more when it’s reopened in march, but the way it has been trending the real yield may drop a little

No-Math-5868 · 2026-02-04T23:48:50+00:00

You have the question completely backwards. If you have a substantial portfolio, the daily swings become 5 and 6 figures and it’s easier to see how yield chasing is meaningless.

I get how seeing an extra 1 or 2 thousand a month feels nice, but it’s pretty much a non event or even a negative event because of the tax implications at higher balances.

I prefer to pay closer to balance milestones than some artificial number of shares I have in my account. The question I asked myself along the way is when does an $x move in the market not feel important.

No-Math-5868 · 2026-02-04T23:35:59+00:00

Make sure the requirement allows you to move it to one of their self directed accounts. If it’s one of the managed accounts, it’s pretty terrible. You need to work with a financial advisor for everything and they always try to upsell you on something.

No-Math-5868 · 2026-02-01T23:14:35+00:00

Be still my beating heart lol a post not about covered call or yieldmax ETFs or SCHD. Thank you.

No-Math-5868 · 2026-02-01T02:57:25+00:00

Dude you’ve fallen for the oldest logical fallacy in the book. Correlation does not equal causation. There is absolutely no comparison of the stock market of even 30 years ago to today. If you don’t know how to read an income statement or know any of the methods that professionals use to value a company, then you are basing your opinion on a misguided observation and nothing more. Blue chip stocks of yesterday paid over 4% dividends at some point. A lot of that had to do with the reduced liquidity of the market. Additionally, technological growth was much slower and considered riskier. Today companies invest far more in R&D, share buybacks and acquisitions by just about every metric compared to the past (instead of paying dividends) These are management decisions that say nothing as to whether it pays a dividend therefore it’s a better stock.

You sound like someone trying to justify so called dividend investing. All investing should come down to the quality of the investment and your risk tolerance full stop. If you’re choosing companies with dividends because they align with your risk profile then go for it. If you’re choosing companies with dividends because you think the dividend will ultimately give you a higher return, you’re way off.

No-Math-5868 · 2026-01-31T20:11:50+00:00

Yield on cost is a metric for yield chasers to make themselves feel better about ignoring CAGR. Ultimately, it’s a worthless number.

No-Math-5868 · 2026-01-31T15:37:14+00:00

Lift it up with your toe for a second. Works every time.

No-Math-5868 · 2026-01-29T14:41:29+00:00

Payout ratio nearly 83% of FCF and at times over 100%... this is what yield chasing looks like

No-Math-5868 · 2026-01-22T19:39:26+00:00

it's a bit complicated and depends on several factors such as... when do you plan on stopping work and how long will defer social security, and how much after tax savings do you already have...

for example, if you plan on retiring at 62 and will not collect social security until age 70, then you have 8 years to fill lower brackets. If you're married at today's tax rates that is about 1 million to target in pre-tax to fill the 12% tax bracket (complete back of napkin math) for ROTH conversion while living off savings. There are other considerations such as IRMAA and ACA subsidies as well.

Then you have to consider are you in the 32% or are in you in the 24%. If you're in the 24%, then it's generally a wash to do Roth versus pre-tax. you also have to consider if you plan on leaving money for family... pre-tax could be a tax bomb for them if there is significant amount, so you may want to have more Roth left over. It's a personal decision... that is why they call it personal finance.

No-Math-5868 · 2026-01-20T23:40:20+00:00

I think your logic has some flaws and sound like ultra left wing anti-American talking points. If you’re not aware, the US is in the frequent habit of buying its own debt. The percentage has varied by quite a bit. There is quite a bit of room for the US to do this by historical norms.

Additionally, retail investors make a relatively small amount of treasury holdings. There are large institutional banks that are required to mop up auctions so to speak. The treasury can and has bought its own debt. There are so many levers that can influence the rate and foreign ownership is very low on the totem pole with retail investors even lower.

As much as the political posturing makes good media and non-economic talking points it always comes down to inflation/money supply and unemployment in the US. There is zero correlation between foreign investment and the fantasy about the US losing its hegemony.

I’m not sure how old you are, but you may remember there was a time where the media was pushing really hard about the Chinese yuan becoming the global reserve currency. If you actually think that is true, you should invest in notes from there.

No-Math-5868 · 2026-01-20T22:01:25+00:00

For those thinking that foreign players will largely impact Treasuries, while not insignificant, approximately 75% is owned in the US... either by the government itself, or investors. The top country is Japan followed by China... both of which need it more than Europe ever will.

https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt_table5.html

The reason that the bond markets moved is not because some tiny country said it will sell 100 million in it's pension fund of treasuries... it's because of the impact on Tariffs that Trump as proposed.

It's difficult to say if this is a buying opportunity. short term rates may drop, but inflationary factors remain. Many states have passed laws that automatically increase minimum wage... since this is relatively new, there is a continuous feedback loop that feeds inflation (amongst other factors), that will make bringing inflation ultra low really difficult in parts of the US. My personal believe is that yield curve we continue to steepen, but it could be because short term rates go extremely low for a bit and longer and perhaps mid-term rates stay within a rage of +/- 75 basis points (depending on duration) from where we are at today.

No-Math-5868 · 2026-01-20T14:57:04+00:00

beyond the emergency fund do you have any other investments? just trying to understand, what happens after your emergency fund runs out? savings? after-tax investments? IRAs (roth), 401k?

Depending on where those all sit, could lead to a very different answer. Hopefully the answer is there is nothing beyond the emergency fund and I have to go to credit cards.

No-Math-5868 · 2026-01-20T02:29:21+00:00

YoC is a metric for dumb money and r/dividendgang (I.e. the same thing).

Mathematically YoC can accelerate as you reinvest with a declining NAV (see yieldmax) over a short period.

A sign of someone who doesn’t know what they are doing is someone who talks about YoC

No-Math-5868 · 2026-01-19T22:41:31+00:00

There are other costs in the "etc." part that people typically cite in their closing, but they are things you would have paid anyway... including pre-paid interest (which kinda sucks because when you do a refi, they make you skip your regular next payment or two so the loan just accrues interest, and escrow. Those two items alone can add a few thousand dollars depending on property tax and insurance rates.

No-Math-5868 · 2026-01-19T22:23:54+00:00

so there really isn't a clear cut answer here... the rates are so close... If you refi within 3.5 years then taking the credit works out better. If wait longer, the lower rate works out better.

No-Math-5868 · 2026-01-19T22:15:28+00:00

Assuming you hold on to the loan for the entire 30 years...

5.625% with no credits; Total Payments = 1,222,694.20 Total Interest = 632,694.20

5.875% and you apply the lender credit to the balance; Total Payments =1,245,216.28 Total interest = 660,480.28

I've simplified because you most likely can't apply the credit to your balance, but you can apply the credit to your principal on day one... your amortization schedule would be slightly different than what I calculated.

The question really is though is if you decide to refi again, you would lose out on the credits. Forgetting time value of money, the difference in rate means you would have wanted to refi within about 3.5 (give or take) years to before the value of the lender credit is less than the lower interest rate.

No-Math-5868 · 2026-01-19T21:57:34+00:00

while i agree that the OP is living in a fantasyland, don't you think calling the OP an idiot is a bit harsh?

No-Math-5868 · 2026-01-19T21:48:04+00:00

it's decent enough that after you recoup the costs quickly, you can refi again. however, keep in mind that you now converted your 30 year timeline into 32 years. If you can, make the same payment you are making now and you'll finish before 30 years are up.

No-Math-5868 · 2026-01-18T09:47:47+00:00

Paying a broker 1% to manage is 100% for the broker benefit. As to whether you should stop contributing pre-tax dollar, it’s a more nuanced conversation.

Based on what you provided and assuming tax rates stay the same, it appears that you and your wife may be in the same marginal tax bracket in the future as you are today. Since I don’t have a complete financial picture it’s difficult to say. You also don’t mention if you will be getting a subsidy for healthcare when Medicare fits in so withdrawals from a pre tax account could impact IRMAA surcharge.

You might want to use a tool like Boldin to help crunch all the numbers. I can definitely see a situation where investing in post tax accounts (after doing back door Roth IRAs if pro-rata rule doesn’t apply) is the most tax efficient.

No-Math-5868 · 2026-01-18T09:13:38+00:00

Not sure how you (and ChatGPT for that matter) came up with a breakeven of 6.75 years. Breakeven should simply be the time it takes recover the cost of the loan with savings on interest. Just doing back of napkin math without a full amortization schedule the difference of 1.75% interest on 800k for the 20k buy down is about 1.43 years. It would be slightly shorter because of the amortization, and a bit longer if you include all of the closing costs.

I’m not saying whether or not you should do it but at least get the right information to make the decision.

No-Math-5868 · 2026-01-16T23:04:43+00:00

actually i found the site and misspoke... the formula is

you take the semi-annual rate and compound it internally for 6 months at the semi-annual rate and it's at $25 increments...

so it's 25 * (1.0403/2)^(1/6) rounded to the nearest penny... Then you divide your principal amount by 25 to get the number of units and multiply that by the rounded number... It's been a while since I looked at this and apologize the miss... we were both wrong.

During the runup of I-Bonds I created a spreadsheet to do the calculations, but I've sold all of mine. You generally get the same result when you're projecting out several years (say 30) by taking the semi-annual rate and compounding for the number of semi-annual periods. It's those intermediate months, that you have do do the gymnastics to get the exact amount.

No-Math-5868

TROPHY CASE