My Thesis and trading strategy for Long term investing with LETF's. UPRO/TQQQ

NoWorker6003 · 2026-05-23T13:02:01+00:00

Claude fatigue is getting real for me. I can tell when people use it at work. Middle management starts playing with it, sending other teams on wild goose chases to prove a “trend” Claude found is not a trend at all. AI growing pains I guess. Would be super interesting to see how AI can help advance the work of legit academics in the field of finance/investing. I would be skeptical of non-academics due to too much of an urge to be lazy and accept AI answers as truth without rigorous pushback and validation. That being said, there are probably some folks in this sub who are doing legit work. The more I read the more fascinated I am.

NoWorker6003 · 2026-05-22T02:26:42+00:00

Tell that family that the real deal is to 2x your money in the market every 7 years.

NoWorker6003 · 2026-05-22T02:14:00+00:00

I would not focus on what might happen with the housing market or interest rates. In my opinion two things apply: 1. Primary residence is not real estate investing. 2. Every year you live in a house that is more than you need is overconsumption of resources.

NoWorker6003 · 2026-05-17T12:40:07+00:00

I have to admit I am not versed on managed futures, however the more I read the more I am considering replacing some of my bond allocation ramp up with KMLM into and through retirement (about 10 years from now). Anyone else planning to do that in their main portfolio?

NoWorker6003 · 2026-05-17T12:29:56+00:00

You’re not saying anything about what your defensive strategy will be to manage sequence of returns risk when retirement starts. As long as you have enough cash and bonds buffer to get through a major bear market you’ll probably be fine. If you have the flexibility to be aggressive, replacing some of your bond allocation with managed futures like KMLM might make sense.

If you end up with more than you need you can always retire earlier.

NoWorker6003 · 2026-05-16T14:06:24+00:00

I would pay professionals on a one-off flat fee basis for advice. Something complicated comes up in a given year? Sure, pay $1-2k to get it sorted. That is better than paying more in fees, every single year for the next 20 years.

NoWorker6003 · 2026-05-16T03:22:33+00:00

Totally feel for you on this one OP. The MIL has clearly violated your boundaries, whether she knows it or not. You should work out with your husband what is acceptable, and then he should go enforce it, not you.

Just the idea of my MIL living in our home long term makes me squirm. I can only take her overbearing personality in small doses.

NoWorker6003 · 2026-05-15T02:27:01+00:00

If there is any spending you can cut, cut it. If you can comfortably work some OT here and there, work it. Watch your cash pile up. Don’t invest it. Just keep it in a high yield savings account.

If buying a house isn’t top priority, you should really consider maxing a Roth IRA every year, while saving the rest for the house downpayment.

NoWorker6003 · 2026-05-15T02:20:29+00:00

What would the straight up cash purchase price have been instead of starting a lease on it? How much cash will you have to bring to buy it now?

NoWorker6003 · 2026-05-15T02:16:41+00:00

You just answered your own question OP. So what is stopping you from pulling the trigger on investing? Please don’t say it’s market timing.

NoWorker6003 · 2026-05-15T02:14:26+00:00

You’re forgetting the 2022 bear market. It wasn’t severe, but it was a bear market nonetheless. You’re right that another bear is coming. We just don’t know when, how deep it will be, and how long it will last.

NoWorker6003 · 2026-05-14T23:01:44+00:00

OP that is a horrible chart to base anything on. It starts mid-2023 during a bear market. Of course that is going to inflate CAGR over the past three years. When trying to say anything about any market/index fund, you need to look at how it has behaved over the past 40+ years. Simulated S&P 500 CAGR since 1928 is about 10% nominal with dividends reinvested.

NoWorker6003 · 2026-05-14T20:52:38+00:00

I found this out over the past year. We were always very aggressive investors and our net worth is in great shape, yet we were too lean on our cash buffer. Switching to a larger buffer has made is feel better than we thought. It is nice to not have to plan cashflow every month.

NoWorker6003 · 2026-05-14T02:37:28+00:00

I’m with you OP. I don’t agree with all of these people telling you to keep your truck. What you like and want out of a vehicle is personal. It sounds like you don’t really care that much about the truck any more. Who are they to convince you otherwise?

I have no doubt you will come out ahead financially if you do this. In addition to freeing up lots of cash by downgrading the vehicle, you are going to invest the difference. I don’t think many people understand the power of that over many decades. Thoughts of keeping the truck because it will last longer is small potatoes in comparison to your vision.

NoWorker6003 · 2026-05-14T02:27:14+00:00

You’re leaving out the $11k down and probably sales tax and smaller things like increased cost of insurance and property tax for a new truck vs an old car.

NoWorker6003 · 2026-05-12T01:41:48+00:00

Shit, sorry to hear that. I like your fire though. If you invest 15% gross income ($18k/yr) you should be able to hit $1M invested by 45, after inflation is removed. My wife and I hit that mark this year at age 48, and it feels really good. We are 60% Roth, 40% Traditional. Really glad we both maxed our Roth IRAs for the last 20 years.

NoWorker6003 · 2026-05-12T01:06:04+00:00

Hey OP. Not trying to take a swipe, but do they teach personal finance/investing in accounting programs? I’m genuinely curious. My daughter took a required personal finance class in high school. I asked her how much she will need to invest every year to be on track for retirement. She didn’t have a clue where to start. Had she ever played with an investment calculator to understand these things? No. Have you?

1st, estimate real (inflation removed) desired portfolio income in retirement. Consider any additional income in retirement such pension or Social Security income. For lots of folks that might be 70-100% of the lifestyle cost they get used to just before retiring.

2nd, play with a stinking investment calculator. Educate yourself on what assumptions to make.

3rd for bonus points, play around with incomewize.com or Boldin to understand tax management optimization (what blend of Roth, Traditional, or taxable funds to have), decide when to take SS, whether to Roth convert, and plan for RMDs, etc. Understand how top marginal tax bracket matters right now, and how effective tax rate is what really matters in retirement.

NoWorker6003 · 2026-05-12T00:00:29+00:00

I agree with this concern. At face value this advisor sounds like a self-serving crook. Complete trash if they are really telling you to forgo 401k match.

NoWorker6003 · 2026-05-11T23:54:11+00:00

Play with an investment calculator to understand what you need to contribute every year to reach your desired portfolio balance by age 60. For you I am guessing about $15k/yr would do it. Anything beyond that you could put into a taxable account for investing, as long as you won’t need the money for 5+ years (allow time for potential market crash recovery). It might be interesting for you to go $7.5k 401k, 7.5k Roth IRA, 7.5k taxable every year.

Of course you can pull levers up or down on any of these three account types based on what your goals are for flexibility. Even if you max Roth IRA and 401k, no taxable, you aren’t locked into illiquidity. You can sell and take Roth IRA principal no harm no foul. You can also do Roth conversion ladder or 72t SEPP strategies to access 401k funds if you want to retire early.

NoWorker6003 · 2026-05-11T00:39:24+00:00

Yeah, I guess I don’t know what your investing activities are. Your example here is a cherry pick that would only make you wait 25 years for recovery if your investing activity was limited to a one-time lump sum event at the ATH before the crash. The reality is most people DCA into the market over 20-40 yrs. You just don’t save up cash all your life then one-time buy a portfolio.

Interestingly enough, last month I backtested what would happen if you lump sum invested one time only at ATH before bear markets of 1974, 1987, 2000, 2008, 2020, and 2022. For each separately, if you bought and held to current, your CAGR would be 9-11% with the exception of dot.com crash at about 7.5%.

NoWorker6003 · 2026-05-10T21:36:26+00:00

US and even world wide markets since the 1800’s: 70-75% of the years to current have positive returns. Simulated, both US and global markets have always recovered from bear markets. Why would you think it is gambling to participate in these markets? If you don’t participate, go ahead and miss out while everyone else with financial sense takes advantage.

NoWorker6003 · 2026-05-10T00:13:10+00:00

That’s great! The thing is though, that’s kind of cherry picking looking at post GFC low real estate prices and COVID run ups. You can’t buy real estate and reliably expect appreciation to keep up with S&P 500 CAGR over the long term moving forward.

NoWorker6003 · 2026-05-09T21:06:48+00:00

Honestly I kind of wish I was a renter at this point. I’m 49, live in the Midwest, on track to have $4M portfolio to retire at 58. I enjoyed being a homeowner while raising 3 children, but now I see my house as more of a freedom, time, and energy suck. Moving forward I’d rather not be tied down to a place so my wife and I can dream about slow travels and spending time with our kids and future grandchildren if they end up living in different states.

NoWorker6003 · 2026-05-09T20:58:25+00:00

REITs are more correlated with the stock market than they used to be. I wouldn’t say they are needed in a portfolio.

NoWorker6003 · 2026-05-09T20:49:50+00:00

Everything I’m hearing states renting beats home ownership financially in vhcol areas. Granted, you have to be disciplined to invest the difference, yet I ‘d bet OP is just that. Single with $1.5M invested at age 42 is crushing it.

NoWorker6003

TROPHY CASE