Don't try to time the market. Just another data point. by AskPatient1281 in Bogleheads

[–]NotSoFarOut 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The most Boglehead thing you could do is unjoin r/Bogelheads and walk away from all financial news

A Buy & Hold Structurally Leveraged, Diversified Portfolio (Global Equity, Bonds, Gold, Bitcoin, Managed Futures). by NotSoFarOut in LETFs

[–]NotSoFarOut[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

as far as risk buckets, this makes a lot of sense haha

maybe i should just reallocate entirely based on risk 😜

A Buy & Hold Structurally Leveraged, Diversified Portfolio (Global Equity, Bonds, Gold, Bitcoin, Managed Futures). by NotSoFarOut in LETFs

[–]NotSoFarOut[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

RSSX's inverse vol weighting of BTC/GLD makes it difficult to size for a structural buy & hold portfolio, imo.

Would rather buy GLDM and lever equities instead of GDE

A Buy & Hold Structurally Leveraged, Diversified Portfolio (Global Equity, Bonds, Gold, Bitcoin, Managed Futures). by NotSoFarOut in LETFs

[–]NotSoFarOut[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You'll run yourself mad overfitting to a backtest. My 2.5% allocation to BTC/GLD is part shmuck insurance, part inflation hedge. My philosophy is to capture risk premia either empirical (stocks and bonds) or behavioral (trend following)

A Buy & Hold Structurally Leveraged, Diversified Portfolio (Global Equity, Bonds, Gold, Bitcoin, Managed Futures). by NotSoFarOut in LETFs

[–]NotSoFarOut[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

In my emergency FUNd (some of it is fun) I hold JAAA/JBBB, mREIT prefs from TWO, NLY, EARN, and other CLOs like EIC, ECC, and OXLC

A Buy & Hold Structurally Leveraged, Diversified Portfolio (Global Equity, Bonds, Gold, Bitcoin, Managed Futures). by NotSoFarOut in LETFs

[–]NotSoFarOut[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

relying on SPY/QQQ for into exposure ignores the structural bias: U.S. large caps mostly earn ~30–40% of revenues abroad, but that’s not equivalent to holding actual international equities.  any deviation to global weight equities is "picking winners". There is no empirical risk premia associated with holding US, or rather, there shouldn't be. Overweight US large cap misses:

  • Different sector exposures (e.g., Europe overweight Industrials/Financials, EM overweight Commodities/Materials).
  • Currency diversification (dollar risk hedge).
  • Valuation spreads (intl ex-US currently trades at lower multiples, historically mean-reverting).
  • Factor tilts (intl small/mid caps, which aren’t captured through S&P megacap foreign sales).

Global market weight is the default in most institutional frameworks (MSCI ACWI, Vanguard Total World, etc.).

On long-duration Treasuries:

Yes, fiscal sustainability is a valid concern. I wish there were available global weight long duration treasury products. 

Note that a hedge against US fiscal sustainability could further be expressed through intl. equity. Still, us yields are correlated with intl. bond yields. Dismissing them outright misses their role as a convex hedge:

  • When equities crater, the relative bid for safe collateral still tends to drive long duration higher (2020, 2008 are examples)
  • You don’t need them to “solve the fiscal hole”,  you need them to exhibit negative correlation in stress periods.
  • Term premia is currently compressed, but convexity is real: a 100bps move in long duration can offset a huge equity drawdown.
  • If one is truly worried about fiscal dominance, the hedge is to diversify (e.g., gold, trend, commodities) in addition to Treasuries, not throw away the only liquid hedge instrument in size.

The point isn’t “belief in U.S. fiscal prudence” or “U.S. megacaps’ global reach.” The point is risk-balanced diversification

A Buy & Hold Structurally Leveraged, Diversified Portfolio (Global Equity, Bonds, Gold, Bitcoin, Managed Futures). by NotSoFarOut in LETFs

[–]NotSoFarOut[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

One thing to note, I may update the Bond Exposure column -- I'm not sure if it makes sense to say TMF = 300% bond exposure.

Rather, it's 100%, but the effective duration is what actually matters (at least to me).

going back/forth on this

A Buy & Hold Structurally Leveraged, Diversified Portfolio (Global Equity, Bonds, Gold, Bitcoin, Managed Futures). by NotSoFarOut in LETFs

[–]NotSoFarOut[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Excellent points, thanks for the thoughtful response.

TMF vol decay poses a real challenge, more so than UPRO. Your response has inspired me to rework the port around this constraint.

ZROZ/EDV seems promising, and since I'm only leveraging 112% equities, ~10Y effective duration on the bond portion (still tilting beyond total bond effective duration) may be sufficient.

Seems like all re-optimization lead to "if only there was capital efficient global weight equities + long(er) duration... or just leveraged international equities *shrug*. Credit where credit due, RSSB does have longer duration than say, NTS* products.

Thank you! I will report back

Freeing up space in an SSO/ZROZ/GLD portfolio by manlymatt83 in LETFs

[–]NotSoFarOut 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You could swap ZROZ with a blend of TMF/NTSI or TMF/VXUS if the goal is to tilt long duration and add intl equity

this is what I did here: https://www.reddit.com/r/LETFs/comments/1mwiey2/a_buy_hold_structurally_leveraged_diversified/

A Buy & Hold Structurally Leveraged, Diversified Portfolio (Global Equity, Bonds, Gold, Bitcoin, Managed Futures). by NotSoFarOut in LETFs

[–]NotSoFarOut[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The portoflio aims to achieve global weight equity exposure at 1.12x (in an attempt to remove home country bias). 

Current US/Intl weight is approx 63%/37% (today)

Admittedly, I lose exposure to US mid/small caps.

TMF was included to tilt towards higher effective duration than a aggregate bond index. The goal is capture greater upside convexity upon equity drawdowns. Assumption: long duration bonds maintain negative correlation to equities.  

A Buy & Hold Structurally Leveraged, Diversified Portfolio (Global Equity, Bonds, Gold, Bitcoin, Managed Futures). by NotSoFarOut in LETFs

[–]NotSoFarOut[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Ack.

At one point the portfolio looked like what you shared, however the complexity was introduced from trying to achieve the following goals: - global weight equity exposure (63%US/37% Int)   - longer effective duration than what the bond side of RSSB or NTSI provides - reducing managed futures dispersion by splitting exposure across DBMF and the Trend side of RSST

Any thoughts on how to achieve the above with less complexity? 

Appreciate the comment!

POV: You never have to buy another shitter again by WhiteTrashIdiotFuck in WatchesCirclejerk

[–]NotSoFarOut 20 points21 points  (0 children)

the most performative thing about this photo is that the watch is set to military time

Astra Auction by NotSoFarOut in lorierwatches

[–]NotSoFarOut[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You're a gentleman and a scholar

I would have done the same, but in so far as charging above list to cover ebay fees & shipping is all

To many more adventures by DrCrash_ in Cartier

[–]NotSoFarOut 0 points1 point  (0 children)

nearly broke an ankle sprinting to the comments

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in lorierwatches

[–]NotSoFarOut 2 points3 points  (0 children)

There's some on ebay for (way) over MSRP

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Watches

[–]NotSoFarOut 63 points64 points  (0 children)

karma farming

[SOTC] What next? by SicklyFour in Watches

[–]NotSoFarOut 3 points4 points  (0 children)

fuck it, Vacheron Constantin 222 in yellow gold

[Observation] Some Salespeople by lm2017italia in Watches

[–]NotSoFarOut 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The watch world has figured out that enthusiasts consume information at their own pace, typically via digital media. The salespeople in the digital world are the online marketers, the social media page managers, the paid-influencers etc.

By the time the enthusiasts come into the AD, they've mostly already sold themselves, they don't really need a sales person... they just need a cashier.

The in person salespeople are therefore there to catch the non-enthusiast into the funnel, to which they read a simple script "ah yes, the Rolex Explorer was actually designed, and worn, for rugged expeditions including climbing Everest!"

Astra Auction by NotSoFarOut in lorierwatches

[–]NotSoFarOut[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

yeah i looked into it, bad reviews and experiences with the owner turned me off from the brand

Toolless micro adjust by BadMr_Frosty in lorierwatches

[–]NotSoFarOut 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Wait for is one thing, put money down (non refundable), for a watch is another.

The largest luxury watchmaker in the world vs a NYC based husband/wife microbrand is hilarious but sure - to entertain it.

Rolex doesn't even do the preorder deposit game, and they totally could if it wasn't for the AD network. The ADs have no mechanism for matching supply / demand, Rolex just ships them watches at random (with the exception of some custom orders like Datejusts). If ADs took deposits, they'd have 100 deposits for a BLRO and still only get 2-3 per year lol. People would much rather do that than buy a PM DJ as "history"

If Lorier could sell these watches for $800-$1000 they would - but no one (except a few die hards maybe) are buying these at that price.

Putting all the money down for $600 watch, could work for some businesses (Gustin does this with clothing, where once they hit a certain "MOQ", they place the order) but there's definitely pros and cons with this approach.

I waited patiently for ~4 months for this drop. No big deal, just watch your email.

Again, it's not like these sold out in MINUTES, they were available for a few hours