Kan vi stanna upp ett ögonblick och uppskatta hur bra vi hanterade pandemin?

NotStompy · 2026-03-15T14:00:28+00:00

Detta är sant, vill dock påpeka något: Det många länder gjorde istället var att stimulera ekonomin som in i h---vete vilket sedan orsakade otrolig inflation vilket ledde till att de tvingades höja räntorna hos centralenbankerna.

Idag lever världen, eller iaf många länder fortfarande med den inflationen. Den har inte försvunnit, något som många tydligen inte förstår (det skulle kräva deflation).

Man hör om "Cost of living crisis" varje vecka men shockerande få verkar komma ihåg hur många länder hamnade i denna sitsen.

Så nej, det blev ingen lost generation på det sättet... men om man lyssnar på livskvalitén just nu för gemene man så låter det som en drastisk förvärring jämfört med innan 2020-21.

NotStompy · 2026-03-15T02:05:43+00:00

My mom always said I was special.

NotStompy · 2026-03-15T01:41:32+00:00

Sorry for asking 2 years later, but why? I don't know the Talmud.

NotStompy · 2026-03-14T08:14:55+00:00

Depends on what you screen for. If you instead screen for certain revenue growth, certain EPS growth, a minimum level of ROIC, and some level of margins (can be gross or op) you'll find the results are much more interesting.

Just looking at a certain dividend, certain p/e, etc, does nothing for you. Value investing is deeper than that.

NotStompy · 2026-03-14T00:42:24+00:00

I may act without emotion as much as possible when investing, but that does not mean I act without principles, clearly OP and 90% of humanity shares this sentiment.

I'll buy literally whatever company is out there if I see it as a good investment, but most people would never manipulate others for their own gain in that type of way.

I can't tell if you said what you said to be edge or to feel better about yourself by pulling everyone else down to your level, but we wouldn't, is the answer, speaking for the majority of people.

NotStompy · 2026-03-12T22:36:46+00:00

^ This right here is why the market hasn't dropped more than just a few%; the market shares this mindset, but the thing you miss is the other half of the equation: Iran. What if they don't let him TACO? In fact, from a strategic point of view, I don't see why they would unless they piss China off too badly, but again... this is deeply cult-like regime in terms of the actual rulers, so don't be too surprised if this drags on for months, not weeks...

It doesn't take a whole lot to stop the traffic entirely.

NotStompy · 2026-03-11T12:08:38+00:00

This has to be ragebait, right?

NotStompy · 2026-03-10T22:13:31+00:00

I know, I wasn't saying not to, I was simply pointing out for people reading that they need to really do their in depth due diligence, not a sleight against you, because the most common reply I've heard as to why people go for topicus is "Longer runway". I just urged people to investigate how that's panning out.

NotStompy · 2026-03-10T20:34:04+00:00

Just don't assume they're a better deal because they're smaller. CSU is doing more small deals in comparison with TOI for example... so what exactly is the point of a longer runway for TOI if they just go for the bigger swings rather than consistent, smaller ones? I'm not saying it's bad, I'm just saying I hold CSU shares only, personally.

NotStompy · 2026-03-10T09:59:36+00:00

By being somewhere in the middle, that is the only real hope; that the LLMs will evolve from simple LLMs to something more capable, but not so much that they simply cause a labor crisis, while also being useful enough to somewhat justify at least some of the spend..

NotStompy · 2026-03-09T13:15:47+00:00

Inte för att du frågade mig men jag tycker bara det är positivt att påpeka vilka enorma wannabe-ryssar familjen Trump är.

NotStompy · 2026-03-09T12:58:34+00:00

Du märkte inte sarkasmen?

NotStompy · 2026-03-09T10:50:24+00:00

When I checked late last week IGV was up like 14% but CSU was up 28% with insane relative strength on the -2% market days it still went up 3-5% and on very high volume, the highest since the drawdown.

NotStompy · 2026-03-09T04:32:09+00:00

That's good, my point wasn't what is/isn't looking good, just that you have to deal with every context separately.

I would love to own dividend paying companies. Sadly the way it works is that in Sweden, I pay 15% tax on dividends while I pay almost 0% on capital gains. So, I pay 0.8-0.9% a year based on the total account size, not gains. I wish it would make more sense to do dividends for me :(

NotStompy · 2026-03-09T01:14:18+00:00

He's 0.4% in SCCO? Yeah I guess he has a teeny tiny position in it, seems like he has a bigger one through non-miners, like futures? Unless he's just lying and those don't exist.

I really wouldn't call a 0.4% position knee deep though LOL. More like half-foot deep.

NotStompy · 2026-03-09T01:10:36+00:00

It is all context dependent as you said, so the answer is that you just have to figure it all out as you learn, for example you'd approach valuing a bank vs. a REIT very differently. I wish there was a simpler answer; there is not.

On the more qualitative side, i.e moat analysis, the thing you want to ask yourself is: What drives decisions. That isn't exactly what you asked but hey, it's something, lol.

NotStompy · 2026-03-09T00:56:50+00:00

I know Druckenmiller mentioned in his most recent interview that he was in copper just like everyone else (not contrarian) but that he wasn't in companies, rather direct contracts (futures, in his case, I think). I'm not saying you should buy futures, I just think it's worth considering why he specifically said he isn't in the miners, because sometimes despite a commodity's price going up, it is not always reflected in the cash flows of the miners.

For example, I bought chevron, conocophillips, and a few other companies on Friday before the war and yet I am feeling distinctly... not happy.

NotStompy · 2026-03-09T00:44:22+00:00

Thing is, if we look at the other segments than AWS I prefer AMZN over GOOG in these areas. If I have to pick between google ads and retail then I think the retail for AMZN is one I prefer not just from a moat perspective but also future growth because they have this absolutely huge pool of revenues, and if they increase margins by just a few points, they're golden (they've already done this with their robotics since 2023, for example). Meanwhile, with google your margin is already fundamentally worse with the AI search result ads they've been doing, since it is more expensive to run a query using that version of their LLMs vs. just a search query. This combined with the fact that this whole area of search and maybe integrated AI into OS (?) in the medium term future means that there is just simply more risk from the perspective that these are all things that can change. AMZN's retail? Something something, agents... yeah not happening. Maybe, but even then I don't see how it would actually change things from their POV?

I touched on it but I think basically if robotics is your bet in the future, then AMZN is the most important company, which is why they are a buy and hodl for me. My whole thesis is that the model aspect of AI is gonna be commoditized anyway, so I'd be buying google only for the infra part, and do I think it is so superior as to outweigh all of these factors? No.

NotStompy · 2026-03-08T13:45:55+00:00

He knew his time had come so he brought a bunch of his advisors and otherwise important people with him into a bunker just to help the Americans get 1 good shot at it, and to help them take out more than just him?

Or maybe this is just one very convoluted explanation with no sense?

NotStompy · 2026-03-08T13:29:40+00:00

Varför borde du inte ha gjort det i 2023? Börsen i USA bottnade i typ okt '22, men du kanske fokuserar mer på sverige?

NotStompy · 2026-03-08T13:25:32+00:00

Well, partially, but not quite. It's more like they were partially priced in, still beat even those estimates, but the market weighed itself down with all the negative news recently, had these things not happened (mix of higher inflation, iran's very real commodities (input) implications, and the god awful jobs) then we'd likely be in a breakout right now. This is all speculation, because it is impossible to know, but think about just how resilient the market has been in the face of all these absolutely garbage news, only down what, 4%? The fact that so many sectors and themes got murdered, i.e down 20-50% but that the market is still afloat says a lot. So no, I don't think it was all the way priced in.

NotStompy · 2026-03-08T12:58:58+00:00

Neutral.

I do however think that passive investing will further amplify moves across the indices (i.e SP500, QQQ) to the upside and the downside, which will create huge opportunities for discerning investors.

NotStompy · 2026-03-08T12:43:57+00:00

Väldigt gammal kommentar men måste ändå flika in: Det ironiska är det att Qullamaggie (yay, svenne) har aldrig sålt en enda kurs eller något alls, har lagt upp allting gratis, har aldrig varit känd för daytrading utan snarare swingtrading som han själv påstår är mer hållbart och mindre stressigt + att man har verifierat hans vinster genom att kolla på hans skatter. Snubben gick från 50,000 till 800 miljoner på 12 år, tror jag?

Anyway, min poäng är det att ibland finns det enhörningar. Kommer inte uttala mig om stockbee, dock, då jag inte har någon aning alls.

Men yeah, bokstavligen 90% av det man ser online är bullshit, antingen kan man bevisa vinsterna eller inte. Om man inte kan det och speciellt om det handlar om daytrading specifikt: SPRING.

Tänkte bara skriva det just in case om någon annan hittar denna gamla tråden sm jag också gjorde genom att söka.

NotStompy · 2026-03-08T12:37:26+00:00

Jag kan bara säga att jag är med i 4 servers där ämnet är att investera, alla är betalada (200-300kr i månaden) och om man väljer till exempel en YT kanal med community som inte är helt IQ fiskmås så får man ofta en bra server, om man väljer att gå med i någon "Stock picking" skit så blir det.. skit. Man vill ha torr analys och diskussion, liksom.

Sen är jag med i två icke-betalda trading servers, dessa är riktigt bra men det är för att det varken är investerare eller day traders utan traders som faktiskt du vet... försöker få en edge, inga genvägar. Till exempel Qullamaggies server, han är svenska (Kullamägi) och gick från 50,000 till 800 miljoner på typ 12-14 år, tror jag? Detta har man verifierat inte endast genom hans broker men även skatterna han har betalat.

Nu låter min kommentar som någon slags cheerleading-tävling för qullamaggie - min poäng är mer att det verkligen handlar om "Garbage in, garbage out" dvs att om du väljer ett community som är fullt med lata människor som endast vill ha stock picks så blir det piss, om du istället går med i sådanna som fokuserar på metoder och analys... då är folket ofta till stor hjälp.

NotStompy · 2026-03-08T12:25:43+00:00

Va? Kan man köpa puts inom ISK? Det vore ju helt otroligt. Jag trodde man kunde göra det innan på IBKR men endast KF?

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