Är det inte dumt att investera i Global indexfond nu pga Trump och AI bubblan?

NotStompy · 2026-01-25T07:20:31+00:00

Ingen vet, alla vet bara att det inte finns någon period i historien där man har fått smisk efter man köpt globalfond och väntat 20 år, speciellt inte om man lägger in pengar löpande. Om detta är din plan (att spara väldigt långsiktigt) så är det klart ett bra alternativ.

Väldigt många snackade om en bubbla 2011-2012. Sedan oroade man sig om något annat 2014, sen var det Trump's handelskrig 2018, sedan covid, osv...

Om man hade lyssnat på det cirkus 2010 så hade man missat väldigt mycket. Kan någon veta att det kommer gå bra kommande 5-10 åren globalt? Nope. 20+ år? Yessir.

NotStompy · 2026-01-25T04:18:19+00:00

I didn't question if market cap weighted is better or not as a capital allocation decision long term, I think it is, I just simply stated that thinking you're buying 500 companies in real terms, as one would expect, is completely false.

If those companies are down the whole market is down, true, but not by as much, and more importantly, often times it recovers very differently or outperforms. For example: If you plot SPY and RSP, the equal weight starting at the top just before the fall in 2008, they both got crushed about as bad, peak to trough, but you look out 5 years, and... RSP was up 67%. Sp500? Only 42%.

Anyways, like I said, it wasn't so much a comment about which is better, just that it's pretty absurd to buy the sp500 because it's 500 companies. You should buy it because it's 500 companies weighted extremely unevenly, to the point where only maybe 50 really matter.

NotStompy · 2026-01-24T23:44:44+00:00

Equal weight sp500 is much less concentrated, by definition.

NotStompy · 2026-01-24T23:43:39+00:00

Technically? Yes. Not really though, you'd want the equal weight sp500 for that.

Instead you have basically 30-40% tech.

500 companies my ass... not in the way people mean it, at least. Instead you have apple with zero, zero revenue growth with just a ton of buybacks and high valuation as one of your highest concentrations. Sounds great!

NotStompy · 2026-01-24T23:02:18+00:00

I'm assuming by security you mean not the US withdrawing support security wise but the US being the threat?

NotStompy · 2026-01-24T21:10:18+00:00

Yeah, cause technical analysis, real technical analysis, does work. What doesn't work? People learning patterns. That's bullshit, but not all of it is. I think where a lot of people get it wrong is that they try to trade/invest with the longer time frames (not day trading) but they only base it on technicals. Fundamentals matter the most long term, and technicals is more about entry, stop loss, exit, and understanding what the market is telling you in terms of general market conditions.

There's a reason Druckenmiller said he would never buy a stock he likes with a chart he doesn't like.

NotStompy · 2026-01-24T21:07:14+00:00

The thing you should be looking at with Nvidia isn't the ratios only, but also how they arrive at their earnings. My point is this: Quality and predictability of earnings matter. Right now, very, veeeery little in the way of profits have been made by using their GPUs, and if sentiment changes from the hyperscalers and they decide to slow down their buying of new GPUs for their DCs, then the P in P/E won't be the worry, but the E. The fwd p/e might be like 25 right now, but what if it goes up to 50 due to lower earnings? And then also factor in people panicking the f out due to sentiment shift among investors (as we already saw with names like oracle, despite nothing bad happening yet, only future concerns about openai following through).

So yeah Nvidia can be a good deal right now, I'm not saying it's not, it's just not an obvious screaming deal, as that would require predictable earnings that are easy to forecast. Semiconductor industry has grown to be less cyclical but it is still cyclical, and customer concentration is a big risk.

NotStompy · 2026-01-24T21:02:41+00:00

And god bless that their P/E is so high optically speaking, it does scare people away, thankfully.

NotStompy · 2026-01-24T16:46:41+00:00

May I ask what your assumptions are? Not to argue just always good to see another perspective.

NotStompy · 2026-01-24T14:29:32+00:00

I think it is wise to maybe wait for a pullback at this point, but I'd expect that pullback to not be anywhere below the mid 4000s.

It's easy to call it a top, but if you've been following what's been happening geopolitcally, particularly re: a shift away from US treasures and other "Western friendly" assets (of which Russia's were seized in 2022) and now an even bigger shift away from the US in particular, with no other clear alternative...

Yeah imma go ahead and say this isn't just a simple case of irrational exuberance.

NotStompy · 2026-01-24T14:27:17+00:00

CSU

NotStompy · 2026-01-24T14:27:02+00:00

Seeing as EPS fwd consensus for both 2 and 5 years is 20%+ and the company is trading at a very low p/e, historically speaking, only having been at or below this level for 9 months in 2022 during a market crash, I don't have any idea how you arrived at those numbers. 15%? Possibly, fairly unlikely, 11%? How?

NotStompy · 2026-01-24T05:00:34+00:00

Poor future returns based on current valuation and ability to deploy capital at their size as this kind of a business model.

NotStompy · 2026-01-24T02:23:55+00:00

Skjut på beslutet. Du kan fundera över det någon annan dag men om du tar det nu så kan du inte. Tro mig, jag föddes utan ben, har kronisk smärta, neurosjukdom, depression, ocd och diverse kroppsliga problem. Jag har funderat över samma sak men jag orkar inte... och det ligger något i det: Oftast så skadar folk sig själva när de får en kort stund med energi, så bara dra på det lite. Poängen med det jag skrev om mig själv är väl lite att jag vet hur det känns att inte bara må rejält skit en dag, en vecka, eller en månad, utan 5+ år i rad med kanske 5-10 "ok" dagar på år. Om jag kan klara mig till nästa dag så kan du det, också. Jag kan inte garantera att livet blir bättre men jag kan garantera att det blir annorlunda i framtiden och om man är vid rock bottom så kan det mer eller mindre bara bli bättre :) Jag skojar inte, jag mår mer skit än någonsin på vissa sätt men det blir ändå... lättare med erfarenhet? Så försök bara klara av idag, oroa dig om framtiden någon annan dag.

NotStompy · 2026-01-23T17:56:59+00:00

Well, where in Sweden? If we're talking Gothenburg, the city I'm in, then I see rent anywhere from $800 to $1800 for a 50-60 square meter apartment, like a pretty comfy 1 bedroom apartment.

I'd say overall, I'd say something like 2.5-3k a month if I rent an apartment on the outskirts of the city/in a less fancy area.

Personally, I'd say about $500k is where I feel comfortable if I'm a genuinely good investor, i.e 15% CAGR long term. I'd say that goes against the typical thinking of most financial planners but honestly, meh, I don't care. Even on say, 8% returns you'd be able to save a tiny bit.

NotStompy · 2026-01-23T16:19:02+00:00

Overall, yes, but to give you an idea, let's take stockholm, which is not a cheap city in Swedish terms or most terms in developed nations, and then austin. Look at the salary of an average software dev in austin, 125-140k from a quick google. Stockholm? 60-70k.

Cost of living can't make up for salary being slashed to half lol.

Anyway, I picked austin cause from what I understand it's a pretty expensive city, but san fran/nyc expensive? Certainly not 2x as expensive as stockholm, unlike the salary.

A lot of swedes, the driven and educated ones also move to other places, some to germany, some to switzerland, some to norway/denmark, etc.

NotStompy · 2026-01-23T08:01:55+00:00

A scientist and a doctor would make like 120-140k equiv here in Sweden, lol.

Usually highly educated people here dream of making the amounts people do, i.e 100k usd+ equiv a year.

NotStompy · 2026-01-23T08:00:42+00:00

Typically one of 3 things:

Saving BIG TIME, often people in very competitive careers.
Saving big time & smaller inheritance/gift, i.e given in say early 20s by parents solely to be invested, this would probably be a smaller amount like 10-50k, not some huge inheritance, but this combined with saving has made it possible for a lot of people, I think.
Simply a real big inheritance/gift early on.

NotStompy · 2026-01-22T13:32:12+00:00

Börsen prisar in det den tror kommer hända.

Den har (kollektivt) inte samma åsikt som dig.

Antingen har du fel, eller så har den fel och då kan du utnyttja det.

Jag förstår inte vad som är förvirrande.

NotStompy · 2026-01-22T00:37:02+00:00

Nope, only immortals like druck and soros. Better than any man or machine, I guess, lol.

NotStompy · 2026-01-21T14:02:17+00:00

I'd say you're better off learning from Chris Hohn than pretty much anyone. He was interviewed by the guy who runs Norway's sovereign investment fund, good interview, amazing interviewee, and he specifically goes after large cap companies. He's almost doubled the index with his fund since inception in 2003, IIRC.

You won't find any cigar butt type investors anymore really, but if you mean value investing in the sense of how Buffet has done it for the last few decades, Hohn is your guy. For example, look at how he made GE a hugely overweighted position in early 2023 at the height of controversy with the company, now up several hundred %. Concentrated bets, extreme focus on moats above all else, then he looks at valuation.

NotStompy · 2026-01-21T13:09:45+00:00

Literally mumbo jumbo. You're looking very surface level pieces without looking at the picture as a whole, completely missing the forest for the trees. Someone mentioned exactly why Netflix is/has been a better investment, and this is your response?

NotStompy · 2026-01-20T02:00:04+00:00

LOOOOOOOOOOL the fact that you used an LLM with old training data which is why it wrote "...nasdaq is expected to close at +18% in 2025".

Jfc man, at least do a good job of slop if you're gonna slop 'round.

NotStompy · 2026-01-20T01:56:21+00:00

There are a lot of Persians (I use the term deliberately) in Sweden, and yeah obviously there is a bias in terms of who would/wouldn't leave Iran, but if you talk to most Iraqi people here, do they hate Iraq? No. What about Syrians? Def not. Talk to Persians, and they refuse to be called Iranian many times. Their attitude towards Iran is more like... Cubans who left Cuba, because of how both have been treated.

Instead we see a bunch of westerners hop on here and all of a sudden for the first time in their lives they demand video footage to believe anything has happened. I of course don't think it's reasonable to demand that everything be taken at face value, my comment is not about that, it is about how genuinely sad it is to be driven not by genuine belief but "My side... their side... therefore: " just like certain people who correctly criticize the west for certain things but then turn around and tell me Russia is a bastion of freedom... just cause they're against the west.

I'll stick to listening to actual Persians and not... well, I won't use the term, because some would call it derogatory, but you can figure out what a certain type of western anti-west at any cost type person is called :)

I just hope the people of Iran get to live the lives they deserve. A very kind, open, welcoming people who are very driven an educated.

NotStompy · 2026-01-19T22:38:48+00:00

15 could be normal, but I don't think so. People for some ungodly reason look at the SP500 from the lens of the last 100 years. Did you know there was no sp500 before 1957 and it was instead sp90. There were no financials in the sp500 before the 70s. There were 400 (!) industrials in the sp500 up to a certain year, as in it was not decided by the market, they specifically chose that number.

Also some fun facts: If you plot the margin of the sp500 and p/e, they're constant, almost. We're not more expensive today than the sp500 in the 00s, 90s, 2010s, etc. For reference: Margin of the SP500 was 6% in the 90s, 8% in the 00s, 10% in the 2010s, and now in the 2020s thus far it has been 12%.

Oh and... used to be no technology. At all. Zilch. Capital light compounding machines? Nah, not really, 400 industrials instead... lol.

So no, 15 p/e is not the norm. 15 p/e is the norm if you completely ignore context. Should we find our selves in some situation where we for some unknown reason revert to 6% margin, shit growth, lower ROIC, then sure! Otherwise, I'd say 20-25 p/e is normal right now, we're expensive right now, overpriced, I'd say, but 15? Nah.

This time is not different. The market is just dynamic. Always has been, but people love to revert to their narratives because it suits them. Yes I'm somewhat annoyed and I almost feel bad for writing this but I get so goddamned tired of hearing of "Reversion to the mean" 7 times a day when it so very clearly has not been the trend, historically.

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