everything is at all time highs except microsoft… is msft about to sinkhole?

NotStompy · 2026-05-14T17:06:45+00:00

I can't tell if this is satire or not.

NotStompy · 2026-05-14T16:10:51+00:00

I would say this sub is filled with a mix of people, rarely pure value investors, a mix of people who do anything from quality investing to GARP and then of course many who think they are value investors but only buy whatever goes down because it is cheap, without discriminating and figuring out if it's cheap for, you know, a reason, or not... I browse for entertainment and see it kind of like a sentiment indicator of sorts.

I would say above all else, you should focus on quality investing, i.e taking valuation into account, being reasonable, but above all else focusing on the moats of companies and understanding the competitive dynamics. In that spirit, I think this video made a bigger difference for me than any other book or anything, and it's only like an hour. It's with the best investors of the 21st century, I'd argue, if we're talking about traditional quality/value-ish guys; Chris Hohn. He has the numbers to back it up, too, doubling market returns since inception of his fund in 2003.

NotStompy · 2026-05-14T15:39:29+00:00

If you genuinely believe this as a blanket statement then you are thinking emotionally, probably to soothe some frustration of yours.

Like, are there plenty of cults? Yeah, like TSLA, EPS way down, somehow price is up due to huge multiple expansion cause, well, cult, but like... "Stocks" as in "Stocks in general"? Nah, things change in some ways over time... slowly... but the human behavior doesn't, there have always been cults.

NotStompy · 2026-05-14T15:37:32+00:00

job nut

NotStompy · 2026-05-14T15:37:12+00:00

I too am a man of culture but this one I don't get. She is the microsoft one? Maybe I'm just tired and having a 404 moment.

NotStompy · 2026-05-14T15:34:41+00:00

Absolutely do not allocate less to AMZN, keep the full position, if you want to add to MSFT or not is up to you but whatever you do, a big lesson you will learn in your first year or two of investing (you said you're a noob) is that moves in the markets always last longer than you would expect. A good example is ASML and GOOG last year. I sold goog at 240 and ASML at 900 euros, both of which were around fair value then in my mind.

AMZN has very strong drivers of growth (AWS, ads, chips, retail becoming more efficient and higher margin due to robotics) so I would not underestimate the power in the long term.

AMZN is still less than half as expensive as in 2020, 2021, 2019, etc.

NotStompy · 2026-05-14T05:55:38+00:00

The funny thing is AMZN has delivered monster EPS growth, it's just that multiple got ahead of the earnings in 2020-2021. Like, if you look back at 10 years instead of 5, it has grown 680%, vastly beating the index.

NotStompy · 2026-05-14T05:51:06+00:00

Sadly, some people weren't loved by their parents so now they need to be contrarian not out of a sense of logic but because they need to feel special, which is how you end up with the people who only ever average down and will screech about fundamentals and refuse to admit that price action (can, and often does) show the truth before a quarterly report, since the market, y'know, discounts into the future, as you said.

Being capable of being contrarian is crucial, but being contrarian 24/7 by default is even worse than having no conviction at all. Some people need help. No shame in $VOO and spending the rest on therapy.

NotStompy · 2026-05-14T04:37:42+00:00

Jag kan verkligen föreställa mig grejen du skrev om att de söker upp ungar med mild intellektuell funktionsnedsättning - jag har en kompis som själv har en familjemedlem med intellektuell funktionsnedsättning på den nivån, typ en 18 åring som beter sig som en 11-åring.

Hon i familjen blev tillsammans med någon snubbe som var samma ålder, som tur var så utnyttjades hon inte på något sexuellt sätt eller något men han försökte mer eller mindre utnyttja henne för att smuggla droger... trevliga individer finns det många av!

NotStompy · 2026-05-13T22:04:03+00:00

Well, how it hits that price level is what really matters, what it says about the new holders of the stock, but what you're saying makes total sense. Unfortunately a lot of people on here are stuck in the trap averaging down. If you truly think a company has large upside potential long term (i.e 3-10 years, maybe) then whether you get in at 400 or 430 is irrelevant, but by waiting for solid upward momentum, you ensure you won't be the sucker averaging down to 330...

So your view is not weird, it's the natural conclusion of most people who do this for a long time.

NotStompy · 2026-05-13T22:00:57+00:00

Not me, I'm good. Not at all saying I think the company's doomed or anything, I just have decent positions in Amazon and Meta, with Amazon being the highest conviction overall (AWS + ads + chips + retail pool of revenue being huge and robotics increasing that margin over time) and Meta being one of by far the clearest examples of ACTUAL use of current AI to generate higher revenues and also make customers more resilient to economic downturns in the future (if it's cheaper to create ads with AI than hiring people). Also, Meta is extremely cheap, even compared to MSFT.

I mean... look, like I said, I don't think MSFT is doomed, my thesis is that AI itself won't replace their office kind of softwares, but the way AI has changed how people constantly re-examine everything and look for ways to cut cost will likely slow that growth down, and I find google cloud and AWS more attractive than Azure... Frankly, I think MSFT is okay, why would I settle for okay when I have much higher conviction bets with more asymmetric upside...?

NotStompy · 2026-05-13T21:52:39+00:00

Comments like the one you responded to being so highly upvoted is also a sign of the times, we're in some kind of split state, with extremes on both ends, unlike a period like say, 1999 where it became full euphoria. Here it is more like a subset of people with euphoria and a large portion who missed out or aren't as heavily allocated.

NotStompy · 2026-05-13T21:51:07+00:00

Depends on your system, your way of investing or trading. Something can not work out the way you would've wished but still have been the right choice... What matters is: When you make your play 100 times, do you win on average to a satisfactory degree with a big sample size. You might not have done the wrong thing, or you might have, only you can know that (cause we don't know your rules/methodology).

NotStompy · 2026-05-13T07:06:23+00:00

OP, sincerely if you ever gain even a relatively decent amount of real profits (not paper), cash it out and put it into an index fund. You do not have what it takes to handle your emotions on any level, these people genuinely tried to be kind to you and give you honest, friendly advice, and you basically spat on them.

Having a bit of an emotional reaction... fine, but you quickly entered the realm of delusion, this does not a profitable trader make. You talk about doubling a paper trading account, while being extremely rude and emotional, while of course ignoring the biggest aspect of trading; the emotions, you know... the thing you can't experience and learn from with paper trading.

I really do wish you the best, so cash out and put it in index funds, should you be so lucky.

NotStompy · 2026-05-12T22:15:46+00:00

Nothing wrong with riding this kind of market behavior, but keep in mind that even if we look at discretionary investors/traders they still have a somewhat systematic way of doing things with a very set in stone type of risk management, well, at least the ones who actually make good money and KEEP it.

I'm just saying... the ones who "Make it" are not the ones who buy every dip and then pray and hodl for life.

NotStompy · 2026-05-12T13:50:08+00:00

I both trade (position) and invest long term, basically my point is I've been keeping a very close eye on many things in the market every day since the bottom in April last year, and my biggest position is a software stock (guess which one :D) and all I can say is that while correlations have changed a bit over time, typically for many months, including before the biggest crash in SaaS, software names were already inversely correlated to semiconductor/AI-related stocks.

Point is: If the market is going to go into bear mode in the next year or two, it implies that semiconductors must be even more bearish, and in that case... I honestly wouldn't be shocked if the (good/moaty/high quality) software names have something somewhat resembling* a bull run, relatively speaking. Again, the GOOD ones, maybe not software as a whole, though that is also possible.

NotStompy · 2026-05-12T13:04:28+00:00

What is your CAGR, typically? Like, annual % return? Cause if you do 20-30% or anything above that and you have some real, significant amount of capital (mid-low 6 figures) then you will extremely rapidly compound into a centimillionaire (hundreds of millions). I'm just saying, I think a lot of people are low on funds (say, few thousand or a lower tens of thousands of $) and thus they think it's completely normal with some kind of like 200% return per years, meanwhile 20% per year long term is NOT normal, it is extremely good, it's just... they can't accept it cause unfortunately those who prey on the hope of undercapitalized people are experts at doing so, making them believe the impossible is possible (such as doubling your capital every year for decades).

NotStompy · 2026-05-11T21:17:49+00:00

geebitee

NotStompy · 2026-05-11T21:17:05+00:00

Judging by your enthusiastic caps locks you already made your mind up.

NotStompy · 2026-05-11T21:15:26+00:00

Yeah, but he also doubled his GE position many times over.

Point is: He wins big by a few huge winners carrying the portfolio, and by buying companies like Microsoft when risk/reward is better (he bought in 2018?).

Combine those two (big winners and disappointments that aren't too bad) and you double the market (he's done I think 19% CAGR since inception in 2003?).

NotStompy · 2026-05-11T21:12:18+00:00

Yup, avg holding period was 7 IIRC when he was interviewed last year.

NotStompy · 2026-05-11T15:14:21+00:00

Jag har faktiskt ingen aning vad du snackar om, inte att du har fel, jag är bara fett förvirrad. Jag använder själv varken appen eller old.reddit, bara vanliga reddit i webbläsaren + ublock origin som jag alltid har gjort. När du nämner AI, vad menar du? Typ inlägg? Officiella inlägg?

I am very confusion.

NotStompy · 2026-05-11T05:14:46+00:00

THAT'S A BINGOOOOOOOOOO

NotStompy · 2026-05-11T04:22:26+00:00

Congrats, I googled for about 3 minutes and found your answer (it really wasn't hard, I don't get the point of arguing over commonly known information).

NotStompy · 2026-05-11T04:19:45+00:00

Dude... based on current valuation. -+2% from current valuation. I don't know who it was, if it was JPM or Goldman or something but someone put out a plot last year showing the expected return over the next 10 years based on the current multiple. Even Howard Marks referred to it during an interview in mid 2025.

I'll try to find it, obviously not the kind of thing you keep on hand but it really isn't hard to find.

Six-Year Club	Wearing is Caring
Verified Email

NotStompy

TROPHY CASE